NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	120		Excitement	7.4 [369]		MVP	Bogdan Bogdanovic (ATL): +28.3%
Atlanta Hawks	129		Comeback	1.7 [414]		LVP	Eric Gordon (PHX): -5.7%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grayson Allen	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15	0.07	0.06	-0.02	7	80%	0.17	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Kevin Durant	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.16	-0.02	0.01	24	70%	0.22	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Drew Eubanks	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	0.00	3	100%	0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	9	74%	0.10	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Keita Bates-Diop	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	5	60%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Booker	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.01	0.02	16	63%	0.12	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Josh Okogie	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bradley Beal	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.10	0.01	-0.08	16	39%	0.08	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.03
Eric Gordon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	5	60%	0.02	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.20	0.08	-0.00	12	85%	0.28	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Onyeka Okongwu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.14	0.11	-0.00	8	94%	0.25	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trae Young	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.15	0.03	-0.00	17	89%	0.34	7	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.09	-0.00	6	50%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.07	0.02	17	52%	0.13	1	-0.04	8	87%	0.01
Jalen Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.03	-0.03	14	52%	0.12	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	10	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Saddiq Bey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	7	14%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	28.6	15.3	26.6	2.7	30.3	129.3
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +29.4%

PHX -5.3%

ATL +7.4%

ATL +21.3%

PHX -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	ATL	NBA	PHX	ATL	NBA
this game	13.7	14.6	14.5	118.8	126.5	113.9
season	14.6	14.2		116.1	115.7
opponent	14.3	14.4		118.0	113.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	14.0	15.0	13.9	12.0	13.7
ATL	13.2	13.8	15.5	16.2	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Grayson Allen	64	65	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-11	13	13.6	13.9	-0.35	15.2	13.7	1.48
Devin Booker	79	81	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.11	4	-13	17	13.4	14.8	-1.40	14.7	14.4	0.34
Jusuf Nurkic	49	49	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.04	-3	-6	3	13.8	13.7	0.06	15.0	14.3	0.72
Kevin Durant	82	83	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.18	-1	-8	7	13.4	15.0	-1.57	15.0	13.3	1.64
Keita Bates-Diop	19	19	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.06	-8	-1	-7	15.0	13.4	1.57	13.3	15.0	-1.64
Drew Eubanks	36	36	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.19	-7	-2	-5	14.3	13.4	0.86	14.1	14.9	-0.79
Bradley Beal	87	87	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.23	-6	-3	-3	13.4	15.6	-2.23	14.4	16.3	-1.90
Josh Okogie	30	30	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.18	-12	3	-15	14.3	13.5	0.77	15.2	14.4	0.83
Eric Gordon	59	60	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.17	-14	5	-19	14.1	13.2	0.87	14.1	15.5	-1.37

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Onyeka Okongwu	57	57	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.09	23	-14	37	14.3	15.1	-0.83	14.1	13.3	0.80
Bogdan Bogdanovic	70	69	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.12	13	-4	17	14.9	14.0	0.94	14.2	12.7	1.52
Dejounte Murray	84	83	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.18	10	-1	11	14.7	14.2	0.58	13.3	15.4	-2.10
Patty Mills	19	20	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.05	9	0	9	12.7	15.1	-2.35	14.9	13.4	1.53
Wesley Matthews	26	28	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.19	4	5	-1	15.0	14.5	0.47	14.2	13.5	0.73
Trae Young	91	88	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.21	-1	10	-11	14.8	13.4	1.44	13.6	14.5	-0.85
Jalen Johnson	82	80	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.19	-2	11	-13	14.9	13.7	1.12	13.4	15.1	-1.73
Saddiq Bey	36	36	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.00	3	6	-3	13.7	15.2	-1.47	13.6	13.8	-0.13
Clint Capela	45	44	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.15	-14	23	-37	15.1	14.3	0.83	13.3	14.1	-0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.51,0.6,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.67,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.7,0.81,0.75,0.83,0.81,0.86,0.84,0.95,0.9,0.93,0.98,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 79, MEM 90	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.56,0.6,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.56,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.77,0.81,0.79,0.92,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.1%
MIL 90, NJN 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.59,0.7,0.7,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.76,0.81,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.95,1	93.0%
LAC 89, SEA 108	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.65,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.69,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.6%