NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	96		Excitement	10.7 [51]		MVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): +55.4%
Brooklyn Nets	95		Comeback	21.5 [78]		LVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): -23.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0.55	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.39,0.55	0.06	0.47	-0.02	22	60%	0.65	4	-0.10	4	75%	-0.01
Jimmy Butler	0.51	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.51	0.21	0.33	0.04	12	77%	0.53	1	-0.02	16	94%	0.17
Nikola Jovic	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Bryant	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.03	-0.01	13	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Haywood Highsmith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.00	-0.08	0.00	8	50%	-0.02	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.24	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.13	-0.14	-0.04	17	31%	-0.14	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.03

Brooklyn Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Royce O'Neale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.12	0.20	-0.00	10	75%	0.33	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mikal Bridges	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.21	0.21	0.05	0.13	-0.02	23	52%	0.24	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.14
Cam Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,0.1,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.00	0.09	-0.01	20	49%	0.14	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.19
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	36%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Trendon Watford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Dinwiddie	0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	6	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lonnie Walker IV	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Smith Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	8	44%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Cameron Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.05	-0.02	13	23%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nic Claxton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.13	-0.13	-0.00	-0.13	0.00	9	47%	0.01	1	-0.15	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.2	1.8	27.2	14.7	27.0	2.4	37.4	2.5	12.4	148.5
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	2.4	15.0	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +78.3%

BKN -29.9%

MIA +18.6%

BKN -12.0%

BKN -5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BKN	NBA	MIA	BKN	NBA
this game	15.3	15.9	14.5	94.1	93.1	113.9
season	14.9	14.8		112.3	111.9
opponent	14.5	14.8		114.7	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	16.4	17.5	12.0	14.8	16.4	15.3
BKN	14.3	12.5	20.1	15.2	21.1	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Herro	71	72	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.26	16	-15	31	14.8	16.4	-1.64	16.6	14.2	2.41
Jimmy Butler	77	76	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.31	6	-5	11	15.1	15.8	-0.70	16.6	13.8	2.81
Nikola Jovic	36	35	0.48	0.02	0.47	-0.01	17	-16	33	14.1	15.9	-1.80	18.0	14.8	3.24
Kyle Lowry	47	48	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.01	15	-14	29	14.3	16.1	-1.85	16.1	15.8	0.30
Bam Adebayo	83	83	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.45	-2	3	-5	15.4	14.7	0.73	16.0	15.6	0.33
Caleb Martin	65	65	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.60	-10	11	-21	15.5	14.9	0.52	15.5	16.6	-1.04
Josh Richardson	52	52	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.64	-12	13	-25	16.1	14.4	1.68	15.9	15.9	0.00
Thomas Bryant	10	10	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.03	2	-1	3	15.3	15.3	0.03	16.8	15.8	1.00
Duncan Robinson	44	44	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	0.04	-11	12	-23	15.4	15.2	0.20	14.8	16.7	-1.95
Haywood Highsmith	25	25	-0.38	0.88	-1.25	0.09	-16	17	-33	17.9	14.4	3.50	10.8	17.6	-6.81

Brooklyn Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trendon Watford	8	7	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.03	2	-3	5	18.4	15.7	2.68	11.3	15.6	-4.28
Dorian Finney-Smith	58	56	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.07	-6	5	-11	15.7	16.2	-0.45	14.5	16.2	-1.72
Dennis Smith Jr.	61	62	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.43	11	-12	23	15.4	16.6	-1.22	15.9	14.3	1.64
Lonnie Walker IV	19	19	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.12	0	-1	1	13.3	16.5	-3.18	16.5	15.0	1.54
Cameron Johnson	43	42	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.23	-13	12	-25	17.0	15.1	1.98	15.1	15.4	-0.30
Royce O'Neale	57	57	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.50	10	-11	21	15.6	16.3	-0.69	15.6	14.9	0.73
Cam Thomas	61	62	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.58	10	-11	21	15.3	16.8	-1.55	15.5	14.9	0.66
Spencer Dinwiddie	39	39	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.07	-14	13	-27	17.2	15.1	2.11	14.6	15.7	-1.07
Mikal Bridges	83	83	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.35	-1	0	-1	16.5	13.3	3.18	15.0	16.5	-1.54
Nic Claxton	81	83	-0.84	0.34	-1.18	-0.72	-4	3	-7	15.6	17.0	-1.38	15.6	13.7	1.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.65,0.64,0.69,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.82,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.75,0.68,0.64,0.58,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.6,0.54,0.66,0.48,0.33,0.26,0.31,0.24,0.34,0.38,0.28,0.15,0.58,0.54,0.69,0.88,0.9,0.92,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 120, GSW 115	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.67,0.73,0.8,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.84,0.81,0.76,0.75,0.58,0.58,0.45,0.32,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.34,0.34,0.18,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.24,0.39,0.24,0.29,0.33,0.73,0.46,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.42,0	86.6%
HOU 111, BOS 110	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.72,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.69,0.8,0.68,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.36,0.38,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.36,0.1,0.01,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.67,0.73,0	85.6%
LAL 123, GSW 119	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.71,0.81,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.84,0.8,0.75,0.78,0.67,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.59,0.44,0.64,0.46,0.34,0.21,0.17,0.32,0.21,0.16,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.08,0.46,0.55,0.55,0.68,0.58,0	85.2%