NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	137		Excitement	8.8 [168]		MVP	Trae Young (ATL): +46.8%
San Antonio Spurs	135		Comeback	7.2 [326]		LVP	Malaki Branham (SAS): -11.8%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trae Young	0.47	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.05,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.47	0.20	0.25	-0.02	29	61%	0.52	2	-0.05	16	81%	0.05
Dejounte Murray	0.24	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.24,0.24	0.09	0.15	-0.01	21	55%	0.24	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Clint Capela	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.03	0.11	-0.01	9	67%	0.20	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	-0.01	10	64%	0.13	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Onyeka Okongwu	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.05	0.02	6	65%	0.10	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
De'Andre Hunter	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	8	60%	0.14	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Saddiq Bey	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03	0.09	-0.06	0.01	8	81%	0.10	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Garrison Mathews	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	4	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Vassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.16,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.16	0.16	-0.00	14	76%	0.42	2	-0.10	5	100%	0.03
Jeremy Sochan	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.33,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.23	0.23	0.22	0.02	0.01	14	97%	0.51	5	-0.28	6	100%	0.06
Julian Champagnie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.13	-0.02	0.03	8	94%	0.14	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Victor Wembanyama	0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	16	62%	0.12	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Keldon Johnson	0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06	0.06	0.09	-0.02	0.01	15	63%	0.12	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Charles Bassey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach Collins	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.01	5	79%	0.10	3	-0.11	4	100%	0.01
Tre Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	5	27%	-0.01	2	-0.08	1	0%	-0.02
Cedi Osman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	7	21%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Malaki Branham	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	1.8	26.2	14.8	29.2	1.8	36.0	137.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +20.2%

SAS -3.0%

SAS -11.1%

ATL +46.8%

SAS -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	SAS	NBA	ATL	SAS	NBA
this game	13.3	13.0	14.5	124.5	123.9	113.9
season	14.2	13.9		115.7	108.6
opponent	14.3	14.3		115.2	118.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.6	12.9	14.3	11.6	13.3
SAS	12.0	14.3	12.3	13.2	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bogdan Bogdanovic	73	72	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.34	12	-10	22	13.1	13.9	-0.80	13.7	11.6	2.11
Clint Capela	55	55	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.45	8	-6	14	13.3	13.4	-0.16	12.1	13.8	-1.72
Trae Young	93	92	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.56	-1	3	-4	13.0	15.0	-1.97	12.7	14.4	-1.65
Dejounte Murray	81	80	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.53	-1	3	-4	13.4	13.3	0.08	12.5	14.1	-1.55
Saddiq Bey	78	77	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.37	0	2	-2	13.3	13.4	-0.14	12.7	13.6	-0.85
De'Andre Hunter	50	52	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.20	-5	7	-12	12.9	13.7	-0.84	12.7	13.2	-0.48
Wesley Matthews	32	30	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.07	1	1	0	15.4	12.5	2.87	12.8	13.0	-0.27
Garrison Mathews	26	26	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.14	0	2	-2	13.5	13.3	0.26	14.7	12.4	2.27
Onyeka Okongwu	62	61	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	-0.05	-4	6	-10	13.4	13.2	0.23	13.7	12.0	1.68

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malaki Branham	42	41	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.03	7	-9	16	11.5	13.9	-2.42	14.4	12.7	1.72
Charles Bassey	7	8	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-5	8	14.0	12.9	1.11	19.0	12.9	6.11
Cedi Osman	32	32	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.07	-3	1	-4	14.2	12.5	1.73	14.8	12.7	2.13
Victor Wembanyama	71	70	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.20	0	-2	2	11.9	14.9	-2.92	13.2	13.6	-0.49
Julian Champagnie	44	45	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.05	-6	4	-10	13.8	12.4	1.36	13.6	13.1	0.52
Tre Jones	53	56	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.22	-2	0	-2	13.8	12.2	1.65	12.4	14.3	-1.85
Devin Vassell	58	59	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.24	-4	2	-6	14.3	11.4	2.92	12.9	13.8	-0.84
Zach Collins	80	80	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.56	2	-4	6	12.8	13.5	-0.71	12.8	14.6	-1.78
Jeremy Sochan	84	86	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.47	-4	2	-6	12.4	15.0	-2.64	13.1	14.3	-1.28
Keldon Johnson	77	77	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.57	-1	-1	0	12.7	13.7	-1.03	12.7	14.7	-1.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.65,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.84,0.82,0.66,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.77,0.69,0.41,0.28,0.45,0.37,0.13,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 103, WAS 91	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.41,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.77,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.53,0.46,0.39,0.53,0.36,0.16,0,0	91.9%
IND 127, TOR 125	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.68,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.71,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.54,0.45,0.66,0.71,0.68,0.58,0.74,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.37,0.22,0.26,0	90.8%
PHX 101, MEM 89	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.56,0.67,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.59,0.62,0.79,0.71,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.79,0.83,0.68,0.64,0.47,0.27,0.31,0.22,0.02,0,0	90.7%