NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	117		Excitement	4.3 [902]		MVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): +12.1%
Atlanta Hawks	109		Comeback	1.1 [308]		LVP	Saddiq Bey (ATL): -7.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.15	0.00	0.03	7	107%	0.14	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.11	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.15	-0.00	0.03	12	81%	0.17	3	-0.06	8	100%	0.02
Kyle Lowry	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	8	81%	0.12	3	-0.03	5	100%	0.01
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.08	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.01	-0.05	17	56%	0.12	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Love	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	70%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Cain	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dru Smith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	8	56%	0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0	-0.07	-0.00	-0.07	13	33%	0.02	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.00
Duncan Robinson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	15	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dejounte Murray	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.11	0.00	0.02	16	70%	0.15	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.02
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	2	117%	0.07	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	6	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Onyeka Okongwu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	3	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Trae Young	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	0.02	19	55%	0.02	5	-0.05	11	91%	0.01
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.06	13	58%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	8	56%	0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
De'Andre Hunter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	11	42%	-0.02	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Saddiq Bey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	9	44%	0.01	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.6	1.8	25.0	14.8	26.2	2.6	33.5	132.4
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +26.6%

MIA +6.1%

ATL -1.4%

MIA +15.6%

MIA +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	14.3	13.4	14.5	112.5	104.8	113.9
season	14.9	14.2		112.3	115.7
opponent	14.3	14.8		118.0	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.7	14.1	13.5	16.7	14.3
ATL	17.3	12.1	13.1	11.4	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Richardson	50	50	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.06	15	-7	22	12.5	15.9	-3.35	15.0	11.9	3.10
Haywood Highsmith	74	72	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.12	10	-2	12	14.9	12.7	2.19	12.6	15.3	-2.67
Kyle Lowry	74	74	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.09	10	-2	12	14.5	13.7	0.83	12.8	14.9	-2.06
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	83	82	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.29	2	6	-4	14.8	12.1	2.71	13.5	13.1	0.43
Kevin Love	31	29	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.04	10	-2	12	12.4	15.1	-2.67	14.6	13.0	1.60
Dru Smith	61	62	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.30	-1	9	-10	14.3	14.1	0.20	12.6	14.7	-2.07
Bam Adebayo	84	86	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.29	-5	13	-18	14.6	12.6	1.99	13.0	15.3	-2.23
Duncan Robinson	63	64	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.15	-1	9	-10	14.2	14.3	-0.09	14.3	12.0	2.29
Jamal Cain	0	1	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.00	0	8	-8	0.0	14.3	-14.26	24.0	13.3	10.67

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wesley Matthews	17	16	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-9	10	14.7	13.2	1.52	12.2	14.6	-2.45
Clint Capela	52	54	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.25	7	-15	22	12.3	14.6	-2.25	15.1	13.4	1.69
Jalen Johnson	49	46	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.01	-6	-2	-4	14.5	12.5	2.04	13.7	14.7	-1.01
Trae Young	84	83	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.31	4	-12	16	12.7	16.5	-3.86	14.5	13.4	1.04
Saddiq Bey	52	52	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.06	-10	2	-12	14.4	12.5	1.90	13.1	15.4	-2.37
Bogdan Bogdanovic	64	63	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.29	-3	-5	2	13.6	13.1	0.46	14.2	14.4	-0.18
Dejounte Murray	75	78	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.17	-9	1	-10	12.9	14.7	-1.74	14.9	12.2	2.76
De'Andre Hunter	75	78	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.17	-9	1	-10	12.9	14.7	-1.74	14.9	12.2	2.76
Onyeka Okongwu	52	50	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.02	-15	7	-22	14.6	12.3	2.25	13.4	15.1	-1.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.14,0.13,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.16,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.11,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 121, DEN 101	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
HOU 114, TOR 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.46,0.37,0.32,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.2,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
PHI 109, TOR 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.39,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.24,0.27,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.02,0,0,0,0	95.0%