NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	107		Excitement	7.9 [283]		MVP	Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIA): +4.7%
Miami Heat	108		Comeback	1.6 [637]		LVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): -22.1%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Christian Wood	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	10	55%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Max Christie	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.00	7	60%	0.02	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
D'Angelo Russell	-0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	10	65%	0.06	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Taurean Prince	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.02	0.04	9	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.05	-0.11	0.01	23	60%	0.16	5	-0.23	4	100%	0.03
Austin Reaves	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.06,-0.09	0.09	-0.15	0.02	14	74%	0.04	4	-0.12	3	67%	0.00
Cam Reddish	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.2	-0.03	-0.17	0.00	5	50%	-0.14	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	7	64%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	11	55%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.18,0.1,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.12	-0.09	0.02	15	76%	0.10	3	-0.08	7	100%	0.05
Thomas Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	6	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.06	-0.00	6	42%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.15	-0.15	-0.04	-0.09	0.02	20	49%	0.06	4	-0.20	5	60%	-0.01
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.13,-0.13,-0.22	-0.22	-0.09	-0.15	-0.01	20	50%	0.01	6	-0.23	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.5	25.5	14.6	24.2	2.6	34.4	130.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +7.5%

LAL -0.6%

MIA +44.4%

LAL -5.0%

MIA +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	MIA	NBA	LAL	MIA	NBA
this game	13.6	15.4	14.5	108.1	108.0	113.9
season	14.1	14.9		114.4	112.3
opponent	14.8	14.3		111.0	114.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	13.8	13.6	14.0	12.8	13.6
MIA	15.0	15.2	15.5	15.8	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taurean Prince	73	75	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.52	13	-14	27	13.0	15.1	-2.05	15.6	14.7	0.87
D'Angelo Russell	58	59	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	2	-5	14.0	13.0	1.05	15.7	14.9	0.75
LeBron James	78	80	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.43	6	-7	13	13.0	15.5	-2.49	15.3	15.8	-0.54
Max Christie	30	30	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.04	-8	7	-15	14.3	13.2	1.05	16.0	15.1	0.95
Anthony Davis	52	50	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.06	-9	8	-17	14.0	13.1	0.87	15.8	14.9	0.86
Austin Reaves	85	85	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.44	2	-3	5	13.2	15.8	-2.59	15.2	16.4	-1.21
Christian Wood	62	64	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.44	-1	0	-1	13.6	13.4	0.21	14.8	16.3	-1.51
Cam Reddish	57	57	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.35	-5	4	-9	14.2	12.7	1.56	15.1	15.8	-0.70

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Haywood Highsmith	47	46	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.37	10	-9	19	14.6	16.0	-1.42	13.8	13.3	0.53
Bam Adebayo	79	77	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.41	5	-4	9	15.7	14.2	1.49	13.9	12.5	1.37
Kyle Lowry	67	65	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.39	2	-1	3	15.9	14.2	1.68	13.6	13.6	-0.03
Jimmy Butler	73	73	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.42	-1	2	-3	15.9	14.0	1.83	14.0	12.4	1.55
Duncan Robinson	55	56	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.05	8	-7	15	14.7	16.2	-1.51	13.8	13.2	0.63
Josh Richardson	45	45	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.41	-6	7	-13	14.9	15.7	-0.83	13.2	13.9	-0.75
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	39	39	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	1	-1	15.3	15.4	-0.19	13.7	13.5	0.21
Thomas Bryant	21	22	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	5	-9	14.2	15.7	-1.49	12.5	13.9	-1.37
Tyler Herro	74	72	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.16	-9	10	-19	15.7	14.4	1.28	13.0	15.2	-2.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.53,0.71,0.84,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.84,0.88,0.97,0.84,0.59,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 98, WAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.68,0.76,0.8,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.81,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.8,0.72,0.85,0.84,0.69,0.74,1	92.7%
DEN 91, NOH 97	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.87,0.91,0.87,0.8,0.83,0.9,0.85,0.78,0.72,1	92.2%
SAC 91, GSW 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.86,0.73,1	92.2%