NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	141		Excitement	10.8 [46]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +63.2%
Oklahoma City Thunder	139		Comeback	10.7 [174]		LVP	Draymond Green (GSW): -17.4%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.63	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.63	0.20	0.45	0.02	15	81%	0.71	3	-0.08	7	100%	0.05
Klay Thompson	0.41	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.41	0.14	0.28	0.01	10	82%	0.44	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.09
Dario Saric	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.17	0.05	0.00	9	91%	0.25	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Gary Payton II	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.18	0.05	0.14	0.00	6	75%	0.20	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Kuminga	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.02	0.10	-0.01	15	59%	0.18	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Andrew Wiggins	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	-0.00	11	57%	0.11	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.06
Moses Moody	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.08	-0.00	7	57%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevon Looney	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	2	67%	0.02	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Chris Paul	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	6	7%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Draymond Green	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.09,-0.04,-0.17,-0.17	0.02	-0.22	-0.02	11	60%	0.01	3	-0.18	3	100%	0.03

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luguentz Dort	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.2,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.42	0.42	0.27	0.13	-0.02	12	94%	0.45	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.12
Chet Holmgren	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.35	0.35	0.19	0.18	0.01	9	92%	0.43	2	-0.08	8	100%	0.13
Isaiah Joe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.2,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.15	0.12	0.00	6	89%	0.31	1	-0.05	6	83%	0.02
Josh Giddey	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.04	0.10	-0.01	15	56%	0.26	6	-0.19	2	100%	0.02
Cason Wallace	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	10	65%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Wiggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	6	58%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Vasilije Micic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ousmane Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.09,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	12	62%	0.24	6	-0.30	5	40%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	1.8	29.2	14.5	29.4	2.5	51.8	157.4
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +20.6%

OKC -9.0%

GSW +14.0%

GSW +24.1%

GSW +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	OKC	NBA	GSW	OKC	NBA
this game	13.5	13.5	14.5	133.0	129.9	113.9
season	14.3	13.8		116.2	117.6
opponent	14.7	14.4		109.5	114.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.2	12.0	13.1	15.3	13.5
OKC	14.0	11.6	14.0	14.8	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Paul	62	60	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.61	6	-4	10	13.3	13.9	-0.61	13.6	13.4	0.27
Stephen Curry	68	70	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.57	5	-3	8	13.6	13.3	0.34	13.6	13.4	0.19
Gary Payton II	52	52	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.30	9	-7	16	12.5	14.5	-2.02	12.7	14.3	-1.67
Draymond Green	64	65	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.52	-1	3	-4	13.4	13.7	-0.30	13.6	13.5	0.05
Klay Thompson	72	74	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.44	0	2	-2	13.7	13.1	0.53	13.5	13.5	0.03
Moses Moody	41	41	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.27	4	-2	6	12.9	13.9	-0.95	12.8	14.0	-1.26
Dario Saric	44	44	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.07	3	-1	4	13.8	13.3	0.45	13.6	13.5	0.14
Kevon Looney	24	24	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.02	-5	7	-12	14.8	13.1	1.71	14.2	13.3	0.82
Jonathan Kuminga	47	48	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.23	3	-1	4	13.4	13.6	-0.27	13.9	13.3	0.62
Andrew Wiggins	56	57	-0.64	1.14	-1.79	-0.23	-14	16	-30	14.3	12.6	1.65	14.0	13.0	1.04

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Isaiah Joe	57	59	0.23	-0.72	0.95	0.28	-2	0	-2	13.3	13.8	-0.46	13.1	14.0	-0.96
Ousmane Dieng	12	12	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.04	-3	1	-4	12.8	13.6	-0.79	13.0	13.6	-0.57
Jaylin Williams	33	36	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.01	-2	0	-2	12.7	13.9	-1.25	13.0	13.8	-0.81
Vasilije Micic	27	29	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	0	-2	13.0	13.7	-0.76	12.5	13.9	-1.37
Jalen Williams	79	79	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.20	0	-2	2	13.9	12.5	1.35	13.1	14.7	-1.55
Josh Giddey	68	64	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.45	4	-6	10	13.9	12.9	1.04	14.4	12.2	2.18
Cason Wallace	81	78	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.46	4	-6	10	13.5	13.5	-0.01	13.9	12.5	1.32
Chet Holmgren	72	68	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.44	-1	-1	0	13.9	12.7	1.26	13.9	12.8	1.04
Aaron Wiggins	38	40	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.45	-3	1	-4	12.7	14.0	-1.36	13.5	13.5	-0.06
Luguentz Dort	68	65	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.51	-5	3	-8	13.7	13.2	0.60	13.6	13.4	0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.28,0.36,0.31,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.47,0.46,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.65,0.67,0.85,0.55,0.68,0.84,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 85, PHX 84	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.67,0.72,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.64,0.67,0.72,0	91.0%
BOS 90, POR 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.7,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.7,0.81,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.67,0.73,0	90.8%
GSW 98, MIN 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.62,0.73,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.76,0.63,0.78,0.59,0	90.8%