NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	110		Excitement	7.6 [412]		MVP	Michael Porter Jr. (DEN): +31.4%
Denver Nuggets	112		Comeback	4.7 [426]		LVP	Klay Thompson (GSW): -15.7%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jordan Poole	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	0.01	13	59%	0.13	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Jonathan Kuminga	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	5	75%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevon Looney	0.03	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.01	-0.05	6	43%	0.01	1	0.03	2	100%	0.02
Anthony Lamb	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	67%	0.05	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Gary Payton II	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donte DiVincenzo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	0.07	-0.02	0.07	12	72%	0.09	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.00
Stephen Curry	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.14	-0.03	-0.04	28	36%	-0.03	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.02
Draymond Green	-0.15	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.06	-0.03	7	29%	-0.08	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16	-0.02	-0.12	0.02	28	43%	-0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.19	0.10	-0.02	17	72%	0.34	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.03
Jamal Murray	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.08	0.00	21	58%	0.18	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.05	0.01	6	67%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	8	59%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.04	-0.01	10	30%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlatko Cancar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.08	-0.01	11	52%	0.07	1	-0.12	5	80%	0.02
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	6	23%	-0.05	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	18	34%	-0.08	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.3	25.5	14.7	31.2	2.3	29.8	133.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +61.6%

GSW -8.2%

GSW -15.4%

DEN +2.1%

DEN +10.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	13.6	14.9	14.4	108.9	110.9	113.4
season	13.9	14.7		114.1	116.6
opponent	14.5	14.1		112.3	112.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.9	14.9	13.0	13.7	13.6
DEN	15.3	13.9	14.2	16.3	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevon Looney	57	58	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.14	3	-5	8	13.2	14.2	-1.02	15.2	14.6	0.57
Donte DiVincenzo	68	67	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.43	12	-14	26	12.5	16.0	-3.51	15.2	14.4	0.80
Jordan Poole	43	42	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.04	-6	4	-10	13.6	13.6	0.00	13.8	15.7	-1.84
Anthony Lamb	31	31	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.11	-2	0	-2	15.0	13.0	2.06	14.5	15.1	-0.52
Jonathan Kuminga	48	48	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.16	-1	-1	0	13.4	13.8	-0.44	14.5	15.3	-0.78
Gary Payton II	24	23	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.02	-12	10	-22	15.6	13.0	2.60	13.6	15.3	-1.69
Klay Thompson	81	81	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.41	0	-2	2	13.8	13.0	0.75	15.4	13.1	2.26
Draymond Green	76	77	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.55	1	-3	4	13.4	14.1	-0.63	15.2	13.9	1.36
Stephen Curry	77	78	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.45	-5	3	-8	13.9	12.7	1.23	15.1	14.3	0.73

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gordon	81	81	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.39	9	-7	16	15.2	13.6	1.63	13.6	13.4	0.19
Jamal Murray	85	84	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.30	8	-6	14	15.2	13.4	1.83	14.1	11.2	2.85
Christian Braun	35	35	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.30	7	-5	12	14.1	15.3	-1.26	13.7	13.6	0.08
Peyton Watson	41	42	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.41	3	-1	4	15.7	14.4	1.26	14.0	13.4	0.60
Bruce Brown	65	66	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.39	0	2	-2	15.2	14.3	0.90	13.5	13.9	-0.43
Michael Porter Jr.	71	72	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.18	4	-2	6	14.8	15.2	-0.46	13.2	14.5	-1.23
Jeff Green	56	56	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.04	1	1	0	14.5	15.4	-0.88	13.5	13.7	-0.15
Vlatko Cancar	8	8	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.02	-5	7	-12	13.6	15.0	-1.40	14.1	13.6	0.57
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	47	46	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.10	-8	10	-18	14.4	15.4	-1.03	13.3	13.8	-0.47
Reggie Jackson	16	15	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.09	-9	11	-20	14.6	15.0	-0.41	12.7	13.8	-1.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.24,0.2,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.52,0.57,0.48,0.34,0.41,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.71,0.79,0.81,0.79,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 89, MIA 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.23,0.29,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.31,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.77,0.9,0.96,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.4%
CLE 91, WAS 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.45,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.29,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.23,0.27,0.36,0.32,0.41,0.3,0.3,0.4,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.52,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.8,0.88,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.4%
NYK 92, CHA 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.41,0.46,0.43,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.79,0.72,0.68,0.79,0.84,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.96,1	93.3%