NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	122		Excitement	8.6 [239]		MVP	Julius Randle (NYK): +95.9%
Miami Heat	120		Comeback	1.6 [618]		LVP	Victor Oladipo (MIA): -8.7%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Julius Randle	0.96	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.3,0.28,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.96	0.32	0.65	0.01	25	80%	1.15	3	-0.19	4	75%	0.02
Immanuel Quickley	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.16	0.12	-0.02	11	87%	0.36	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Brunson	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.26,0.2,0.28,0.19,0.19	0.16	0.07	0.03	14	74%	0.28	1	-0.09	6	67%	-0.01
Isaiah Hartenstein	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	80%	0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
RJ Barrett	0.05	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	-0.00	15	55%	0.07	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Mitchell Robinson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.04	-0.00	1	100%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Grimes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Obi Toppin	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Hart	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	3	56%	0.02	3	-0.07	3	33%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.19	0.20	0.04	15	66%	0.36	0	0.00	20	90%	0.07
Tyler Herro	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.34	0.34	0.15	0.20	0.01	18	76%	0.49	4	-0.15	2	100%	0.05
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.14	0.18	0.00	6	93%	0.32	0	0.00	3	100%	0.04
Cody Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	-0.03	1	100%	0.04	2	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.05	0.00	6	64%	0.06	1	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.07	-0.01	16	50%	-0.03	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	25%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	9	33%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.0	1.8	26.5	15.4	26.6	2.4	37.3	141.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +113.6%

MIA -32.5%

MIA -19.0%

MIA -13.5%

NYK +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIA	NBA	NYK	MIA	NBA
this game	15.7	15.0	14.4	129.8	127.7	113.4
season	15.1	15.1		115.6	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.4		112.1	112.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	15.3	12.3	18.3	17.3	15.7
MIA	14.7	15.8	14.5	14.7	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Hart	63	63	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.27	16	-14	30	14.7	17.8	-3.12	16.1	12.7	3.35
Isaiah Hartenstein	30	29	0.58	-0.08	0.66	-0.06	22	-20	42	13.9	16.5	-2.66	18.0	13.6	4.45
Julius Randle	68	68	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.39	1	1	0	16.4	13.9	2.48	15.0	14.9	0.10
Immanuel Quickley	42	44	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.44	-3	5	-8	16.0	15.4	0.62	15.0	14.9	0.08
RJ Barrett	60	58	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.37	-1	3	-4	16.0	15.1	0.93	13.9	16.6	-2.68
Jalen Brunson	66	67	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.33	-1	3	-4	16.2	14.4	1.78	15.1	14.7	0.36
Obi Toppin	26	26	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.05	1	1	0	13.9	16.4	-2.48	14.9	15.0	-0.10
Quentin Grimes	51	50	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.09	-2	4	-6	15.6	15.8	-0.20	14.6	15.4	-0.81
Mitchell Robinson	64	65	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	0.32	-23	25	-48	16.5	13.9	2.66	13.6	18.0	-4.45

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Love	47	48	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.25	13	-15	28	13.6	16.3	-2.72	15.4	16.0	-0.67
Jimmy Butler	64	65	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.48	18	-20	38	13.9	17.1	-3.20	16.6	13.6	3.03
Gabe Vincent	54	55	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.16	2	-4	6	13.9	16.3	-2.42	15.3	16.3	-1.03
Cody Zeller	15	16	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.07	-6	4	-10	18.4	14.3	4.10	15.6	15.7	-0.07
Bam Adebayo	79	78	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.52	4	-6	10	14.3	18.4	-4.10	15.7	15.6	0.07
Tyler Herro	77	75	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.32	-4	2	-6	15.2	14.1	1.10	15.9	14.6	1.32
Victor Oladipo	48	47	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.24	-9	7	-16	16.4	13.4	3.02	16.3	15.0	1.28
Max Strus	38	39	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.07	-15	13	-28	15.9	14.3	1.53	13.4	17.3	-3.92
Caleb Martin	48	47	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.24	-13	11	-24	16.3	13.6	2.73	16.1	15.3	0.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.16,0.28,0.26,0.21,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.19,0.22,0.34,0.29,0.15,0.21,0.41,0.39,0.32,0.37,0.14,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 90, HOU 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.2,0.14,0.2,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.23,0.28,0.21,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.19,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.31,0.35,0.47,0.38,0.36,0.15,0.26,0	92.2%
CHA 96, NJN 92	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.17,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.23,0.25,0.28,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.26,0.35,0.09,0.14,0.36,0.16,0.26,0	91.7%
SAC 110, SEA 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.27,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.16,0.22,0.21,0.24,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.16,0.25,0.14,0.23,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.31,0.45,0.34,0.42,0	91.3%