NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	104		Excitement	7.6 [407]		MVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): +45.3%
New York Knicks	106		Comeback	1.8 [491]		LVP	Gabe Vincent (MIA): -16.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0.45	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.24,0.29,0.35,0.35,0.45	0.24	0.22	0.01	16	74%	0.45	0	0.00	11	91%	0.08
Max Strus	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16	0.16	0.03	0.04	9	85%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Haywood Highsmith	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	0.01	3	117%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.03	0.01	7	21%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	7	36%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,-0.08	0.03	-0.10	0.01	22	54%	0.04	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Jimmy Butler	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	0.00	-0.01	13	37%	-0.02	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.02
Gabe Vincent	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.07	-0.00	8	31%	-0.09	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Quentin Grimes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.15	0.15	0.01	9	85%	0.30	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Miles McBride	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.07	0.00	3	133%	0.19	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
RJ Barrett	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.18,0.25,0.14	0.14	0.02	0.10	-0.03	23	58%	0.33	5	-0.19	6	67%	-0.03
Isaiah Hartenstein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.11	0.11	-0.05	0.15	-0.01	7	47%	0.17	3	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Obi Toppin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.07	-0.00	6	58%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Immanuel Quickley	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.00	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	7	31%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jericho Sims	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julius Randle	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.10	-0.03	19	53%	0.11	7	-0.23	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.4	30.4	15.5	24.7	2.4	39.2	140.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +62.7%

MIA -1.1%

NYK +6.3%

MIA -23.8%

NYK +6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	14.9	15.4	14.4	109.5	111.6	113.4
season	15.1	15.1		111.9	115.6
opponent	14.4	14.6		112.9	112.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.3	17.5	15.7	12.6	14.9
NYK	14.5	16.0	15.0	16.3	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Haywood Highsmith	35	35	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.28	6	-8	14	13.6	15.6	-1.99	15.1	15.6	-0.46
Max Strus	60	60	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.58	16	-18	34	13.2	17.8	-4.62	15.4	15.5	-0.18
Gabe Vincent	53	51	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.60	14	-16	30	13.8	16.2	-2.34	16.0	14.7	1.31
Bam Adebayo	73	72	-0.20	-0.29	0.09	-0.35	5	-7	12	14.8	15.1	-0.33	16.5	12.1	4.41
Udonis Haslem	22	23	-0.29	-0.20	-0.09	-0.09	-7	5	-12	15.1	14.8	0.33	12.1	16.5	-4.41
Jimmy Butler	65	66	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.21	-3	1	-4	15.2	14.1	1.15	15.5	15.2	0.27
Kyle Lowry	45	46	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.19	-17	15	-32	16.8	13.1	3.72	14.8	16.0	-1.26
Caleb Martin	44	45	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.12	-15	13	-28	17.0	13.1	3.94	15.4	15.5	-0.06
Tyler Herro	78	77	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.40	-9	7	-16	14.8	15.1	-0.28	15.5	14.9	0.60

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Julius Randle	68	69	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.21	14	-12	26	14.6	17.6	-3.02	15.2	13.9	1.32
Quentin Grimes	74	74	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.26	8	-6	14	14.9	17.3	-2.38	15.2	13.8	1.38
Jericho Sims	33	34	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.14	16	-14	30	16.5	14.9	1.61	18.5	12.9	5.63
RJ Barrett	78	78	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.35	-1	3	-4	16.3	11.3	5.04	15.4	12.4	3.08
Miles McBride	22	23	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.20	2	0	2	14.4	15.8	-1.39	13.3	15.4	-2.08
Immanuel Quickley	73	72	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.24	0	2	-2	15.8	14.4	1.39	15.4	13.3	2.08
Evan Fournier	38	38	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.27	-3	5	-8	14.6	16.0	-1.38	13.2	16.0	-2.88
Isaiah Hartenstein	62	61	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.58	-14	16	-30	14.9	16.5	-1.61	12.9	18.5	-5.63
Obi Toppin	27	26	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.23	-12	14	-26	17.6	14.6	3.02	13.9	15.2	-1.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.65,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.9,0.92,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.79,0.77,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 115, BKN 125	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.34,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.51,0.52,0.63,0.73,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.89,0.98,0.98,1,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	91.5%
DEN 92, NOH 94	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.63,0.69,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.65,0.79,0.74,0.85,0.81,0.8,0.79,0.86,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.85,0.72,0.76,0.84,1	91.1%
BOS 89, HOU 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.33,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.76,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.94,0.96,1,1,1	91.0%