NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	105		Excitement	7.8 [363]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): +31.4%
Miami Heat	110		Comeback	4.4 [613]		LVP	Victor Oladipo (MIA): -12.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Franz Wagner	0.24	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.14	0.10	-0.00	10	79%	0.25	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.04
Wendell Carter Jr.	0.18	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.18,0.18	0.05	0.13	0.00	11	73%	0.27	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Cole Anthony	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	-0.03	-0.03	9	79%	0.18	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.01
Moritz Wagner	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	6	60%	0.14	2	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Gary Harris	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03	0.05	-0.02	0.01	6	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bol Bol	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	1	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Suggs	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	3	30%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Markelle Fultz	-0.10	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.1	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	9	56%	0.02	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Paolo Banchero	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	14	46%	0.08	5	-0.20	13	77%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.27,0.31	0.31	0.16	0.16	0.01	17	63%	0.31	0	0.00	12	75%	0.02
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.13	0.11	-0.00	8	94%	0.30	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Caleb Martin	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.09	0.14	0.01	9	68%	0.23	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.07	-0.00	8	61%	0.16	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	14	57%	0.13	2	-0.07	7	86%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Orlando Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	12	38%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.03
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.13	-0.02	-0.03	8	12%	-0.11	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.3	29.7	14.5	26.0	2.6	38.3	139.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +16.1%

ORL -7.2%

MIA +2.6%

MIA +33.0%

MIA +5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	13.4	15.7	14.4	107.1	110.0	113.4
season	14.3	15.1		111.0	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.5		112.1	113.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.2	13.3	15.7	12.8	13.4
MIA	16.6	14.9	17.7	13.9	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Suggs	35	37	0.30	-0.80	1.11	-0.08	13	-18	31	13.3	13.4	-0.07	15.1	16.0	-0.99
Bol Bol	41	42	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.12	6	-11	17	13.0	13.7	-0.75	15.5	15.8	-0.23
Moritz Wagner	33	34	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.00	-1	-4	3	13.7	13.2	0.47	15.5	15.8	-0.32
Franz Wagner	67	69	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.10	0	-5	5	13.6	13.0	0.52	15.3	16.6	-1.31
Cole Anthony	59	59	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.31	7	-12	19	12.7	14.4	-1.61	15.3	16.2	-0.91
Wendell Carter Jr.	62	63	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.34	-3	-2	-1	13.6	12.9	0.70	16.4	14.5	1.89
Gary Harris	57	58	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.23	-11	6	-17	13.7	13.0	0.75	15.8	15.5	0.23
Markelle Fultz	63	63	-0.80	0.30	-1.11	-0.28	-18	13	-31	13.4	13.3	0.07	16.0	15.1	0.99
Paolo Banchero	73	75	-0.83	0.33	-1.15	-0.30	-18	13	-31	13.4	13.4	0.04	15.9	15.2	0.69

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caleb Martin	55	55	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.29	13	-8	21	15.8	15.5	0.35	13.9	12.7	1.27
Bam Adebayo	74	73	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.37	4	1	3	15.8	15.4	0.35	13.8	12.2	1.65
Tyler Herro	62	61	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.10	13	-8	21	16.0	15.1	0.88	12.9	14.1	-1.20
Jimmy Butler	68	67	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.20	9	-4	13	16.1	14.8	1.28	13.0	14.2	-1.18
Max Strus	64	63	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.36	-5	10	-15	14.4	17.9	-3.49	13.1	13.9	-0.73
Kyle Lowry	49	49	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.03	5	0	5	17.0	14.4	2.63	13.8	13.0	0.82
Victor Oladipo	47	45	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.26	-5	10	-15	15.6	15.7	-0.08	13.2	13.6	-0.43
Gabe Vincent	40	38	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.14	-2	7	-9	15.4	15.9	-0.51	14.1	12.9	1.21
Orlando Robinson	26	25	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	4	-3	15.4	15.8	-0.35	12.2	13.8	-1.65
Haywood Highsmith	15	14	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.03	-8	13	-21	13.8	16.0	-2.21	13.4	13.4	0.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.32,0.4,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.63,0.56,0.4,0.26,0.28,0.29,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.76,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.77,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 102, UTA 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.31,0.24,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.45,0.52,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.43,0.46,0.37,0.64,0.76,0.77,0.76,0.84,0.91,0.98,1	91.5%
TOR 104, MIA 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.24,0.26,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.73,0.93,0.84,0.91,0.96,1	91.0%
CHH 93, POR 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.26,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.51,0.63,0.6,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.78,0.69,0.92,0.94,0.83,1	91.0%