NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	110		Excitement	9.0 [184]		MVP	Onyeka Okongwu (ATL): +45.6%
Atlanta Hawks	108		Comeback	13.8 [76]		LVP	Coby White (CHI): -6.5%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ayo Dosunmu	0.43	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.43	0.05	0.40	0.01	6	75%	0.45	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zach LaVine	0.31	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.14,0.31	0.05	0.27	0.01	16	58%	0.38	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.23	0.07	0.17	0.00	23	54%	0.25	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.06	0.01	17	56%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Alex Caruso	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	125%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Williams	0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	11	50%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dalen Terry	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	62%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Coby White	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	8	45%	0.00	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Onyeka Okongwu	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.46	0.46	0.06	0.39	-0.00	14	60%	0.48	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
AJ Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.15	0.15	0.00	7	100%	0.29	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.07	0.01	12	50%	0.12	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
De'Andre Hunter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	10	45%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Holiday	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Collins	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	40%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Frank Kaminsky	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	0.04	0.01	17	43%	0.05	5	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Trae Young	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,-0.06	-0.06	0.06	-0.11	0.01	24	60%	0.07	5	-0.13	9	100%	0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.3	27.9	14.6	26.4	2.6	34.9	132.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +39.7%

ATL -4.9%

CHI +5.5%

CHI +9.1%

CHI +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ATL	NBA	CHI	ATL	NBA
this game	13.8	14.2	14.4	106.8	104.9	113.4
season	14.1	13.8		112.0	115.1
opponent	14.4	14.9		114.9	110.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.4	11.4	16.6	14.3	13.8
ATL	15.9	13.5	12.2	15.1	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ayo Dosunmu	72	73	0.88	-0.38	1.25	0.49	13	-11	24	13.9	13.7	0.18	14.3	13.9	0.41
DeMar DeRozan	83	80	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.52	5	-3	8	14.5	11.0	3.48	13.8	15.3	-1.54
Andre Drummond	30	31	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.03	15	-13	28	13.2	14.0	-0.81	15.1	13.7	1.35
Patrick Williams	79	80	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.48	-3	5	-8	13.7	14.1	-0.36	14.1	14.4	-0.36
Alex Caruso	24	23	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.17	19	-17	36	12.0	14.4	-2.35	16.3	13.5	2.77
Zach LaVine	79	79	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.54	-12	14	-26	13.9	13.5	0.40	14.2	14.1	0.04
Nikola Vucevic	73	72	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.47	-13	15	-28	14.0	13.2	0.81	13.7	15.1	-1.35
Dalen Terry	11	11	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.01	-5	7	-12	14.7	13.7	1.03	13.8	14.2	-0.38
Coby White	64	66	-0.38	0.88	-1.27	-0.12	-9	11	-20	13.4	14.5	-1.14	13.8	14.7	-0.90

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
AJ Griffin	47	44	0.30	-0.80	1.10	0.33	-1	-1	0	14.3	14.0	0.26	13.5	14.1	-0.57
Aaron Holiday	5	5	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	2	-6	16.4	14.0	2.36	15.4	13.7	1.68
Jalen Johnson	9	10	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.08	-9	7	-16	14.4	14.1	0.32	13.0	13.9	-0.89
Onyeka Okongwu	87	86	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.51	11	-13	24	13.8	16.2	-2.48	14.0	12.6	1.39
Frank Kaminsky	10	10	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.10	-10	8	-18	17.2	13.8	3.37	12.9	13.9	-1.00
Trae Young	80	81	-0.28	-0.21	-0.07	-0.34	2	-4	6	14.2	13.9	0.31	13.9	13.5	0.39
De'Andre Hunter	80	81	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.65	10	-12	22	14.1	14.4	-0.30	13.9	13.5	0.45
Bogdan Bogdanovic	64	65	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.49	1	-3	4	14.0	14.4	-0.33	13.8	13.8	-0.06
Dejounte Murray	87	88	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.40	-2	0	-2	14.1	14.6	-0.48	13.8	13.8	0.01
John Collins	46	45	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.34	-8	6	-14	14.1	14.2	-0.12	13.6	14.0	-0.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.27,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.41,0.38,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.69,0.84,0.9,0.81,0.72,0.85,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 100, WAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.31,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.23,0.27,0.2,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.16,0.2,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.62,0.52,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.83,0.76,0.78,0.69,0.74,0	91.6%
SAC 93, MIN 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.63,0.69,0.8,0.67,0.75,0.79,0.83,0.84,0	90.8%
MIL 112, MEM 111	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.29,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.18,0.2,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.3,0.4,0.36,0.5,0.52,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.88,0.78,0.62,0.78,0.84,0.75,0	89.8%