NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	110		Excitement	8.8 [209]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +15.3%
Denver Nuggets	115		Comeback	2.0 [852]		LVP	Talen Horton-Tucker (UTA): -7.1%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Walker Kessler	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.00	6	67%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Rudy Gay	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.02	0.06	-0.00	7	36%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ochai Agbaji	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	8	37%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.02	-0.01	13	68%	0.14	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.02
Kelly Olynyk	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.01,0.01	0.14	-0.10	0.03	9	75%	0.01	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,-0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.01	0.09	-0.08	0.02	16	73%	0.23	6	-0.24	5	80%	-0.01
Jarred Vanderbilt	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	7	37%	0.08	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Leandro Bolmaro	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Talen Horton-Tucker	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.12,0.02,-0.07	0.04	-0.12	-0.00	18	49%	-0.03	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.19	0.00	0.03	19	73%	0.24	1	-0.09	3	100%	0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.13	0.03	0.01	9	83%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.05	0.00	13	54%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.03	0.11	0.00	5	40%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.09,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.03	-0.00	20	62%	0.27	3	-0.20	10	80%	0.01
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	71%	0.08	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bones Hyland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	14	39%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	24.3	14.4	27.4	2.5	33.1	127.5
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +46.5%

UTA -4.1%

UTA -3.4%

DEN +11.8%

UTA -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	DEN	NBA	UTA	DEN	NBA
this game	14.3	15.6	14.4	113.4	119.8	113.4
season	14.3	14.7		114.4	116.6
opponent	14.5	14.1		112.3	115.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	14.8	15.0	12.8	14.8	14.3
DEN	15.2	15.0	14.9	17.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Leandro Bolmaro	34	33	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.04	3	-8	11	14.1	14.4	-0.26	16.5	15.1	1.45
Walker Kessler	43	43	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-9	13	14.3	14.3	-0.02	16.3	15.0	1.30
Rudy Gay	28	27	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-7	9	15.4	13.9	1.50	17.5	14.8	2.67
Ochai Agbaji	41	42	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.07	2	-7	9	12.5	15.6	-3.16	15.0	16.0	-1.00
Talen Horton-Tucker	68	67	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.29	-6	1	-7	15.0	12.7	2.28	15.6	15.5	0.06
Kelly Olynyk	69	69	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.34	-7	2	-9	13.9	15.4	-1.50	14.8	17.5	-2.67
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	79	79	-0.56	0.07	-0.63	-0.39	-6	1	-7	14.9	11.8	3.08	15.8	14.5	1.33
Jarred Vanderbilt	54	53	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.31	-9	4	-13	14.3	14.3	0.02	15.0	16.3	-1.30
Malik Beasley	69	67	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.35	-8	3	-11	14.1	14.7	-0.55	15.1	16.5	-1.37

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	73	73	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.40	11	-6	17	15.8	14.8	0.97	14.5	13.5	0.99
Bruce Brown	57	57	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.34	12	-7	19	14.8	16.7	-1.86	14.6	13.8	0.79
Nikola Jokic	73	74	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.31	10	-5	15	14.8	17.9	-3.03	13.8	15.8	-1.96
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	69	71	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.33	9	-4	13	15.0	17.0	-1.95	14.1	14.7	-0.60
Aaron Gordon	62	64	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.29	6	-1	7	14.9	16.8	-1.95	13.8	15.2	-1.40
Jeff Green	34	33	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	6	-7	16.8	14.9	1.95	15.2	13.8	1.40
DeAndre Jordan	23	23	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	10	-15	17.9	14.8	3.03	15.8	13.8	1.96
Bones Hyland	39	41	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.07	-5	10	-15	16.4	15.0	1.47	14.7	14.0	0.64
Christian Braun	50	49	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	0.06	-12	17	-29	16.2	14.9	1.25	13.5	15.1	-1.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.65,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.58,0.52,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.59,0.53,0.46,0.62,0.85,0.57,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 91, WAS 94	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.67,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.73,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.56,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.48,0.47,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.69,0.86,0.76,0.74,1	91.3%
LAL 101, UTA 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.57,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.71,0.77,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.74,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.56,0.48,0.58,0.49,0.62,0.65,0.53,0.68,0.77,0.84,0.84,1	91.3%
DAL 102, HOU 111	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.63,0.67,0.78,0.76,0.72,0.67,0.76,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.66,0.7,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.67,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.97,1	91.1%