NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	118		Excitement	8.9 [147]		MVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): +39.1%
Philadelphia 76ers	116		Comeback	9.3 [166]		LVP	Tyrese Maxey (PHI): -9.0%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.39	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.09,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.39,0.39	0.19	0.22	0.02	24	69%	0.48	3	-0.09	10	70%	-0.04
Jrue Holiday	0.32	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.32,0.32	0.04	0.26	-0.02	16	53%	0.34	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Khris Middleton	0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.06	0.11	-0.01	17	56%	0.21	2	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02
Grayson Allen	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.01	5	77%	0.12	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.02
Bobby Portis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Serge Ibaka	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	-0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.11,-0.04	0.05	-0.09	0.01	14	59%	0.14	2	-0.18	1	100%	0.01
Pat Connaughton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tobias Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.10	0.13	-0.04	19	58%	0.26	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Georges Niang	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,0,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.01	0.14	-0.00	9	50%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.09	0.09	0.19	-0.08	0.03	17	70%	0.14	2	-0.05	12	83%	0.03
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.01	0.01	5	90%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shake Milton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Embiid	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.16,0.09,0.03	0.03	0.08	-0.06	-0.01	21	60%	0.21	4	-0.18	6	67%	-0.03
Matisse Thybulle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrese Maxey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	11	32%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	28.3	14.4	28.6	2.3	36.3	136.5
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +47.3%

MIL +0.3%

MIL +2.9%

PHI -9.9%

MIL +9.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	PHI	NBA	MIL	PHI	NBA
this game	12.6	16.6	14.5	120.4	117.2	110.8
season	13.7	15.2		112.2	112.4
opponent	14.6	14.8		109.8	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	12.8	15.5	10.8	11.6	12.6
PHI	16.6	15.2	15.9	18.9	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jrue Holiday	82	84	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.40	11	-9	20	12.2	14.7	-2.57	16.8	15.8	0.96
Khris Middleton	80	80	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.46	7	-5	12	12.7	12.2	0.47	16.8	15.6	1.22
Giannis Antetokounmpo	78	79	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.39	3	-1	4	11.8	15.6	-3.77	16.8	16.0	0.77
Brook Lopez	60	59	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.46	-3	5	-8	13.2	11.6	1.59	16.5	16.8	-0.27
Wesley Matthews	52	53	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.35	-1	3	-4	12.6	12.6	-0.05	16.5	16.8	-0.27
Pat Connaughton	37	38	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.09	0	2	-2	13.1	12.3	0.81	16.6	16.7	-0.10
Grayson Allen	50	50	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.10	-1	3	-4	12.4	12.8	-0.37	16.7	16.6	0.13
Bobby Portis	27	29	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	-2	6	12.6	12.6	-0.06	16.0	16.9	-0.92
Serge Ibaka	6	7	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.00	-3	5	-8	14.8	12.5	2.38	14.3	16.8	-2.51
George Hill	18	16	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.07	-7	9	-16	14.3	12.2	2.05	16.9	16.6	0.31

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matisse Thybulle	44	44	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.15	-2	0	-2	16.0	17.1	-1.19	12.7	12.5	0.19
Danny Green	47	47	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-1	0	16.4	16.8	-0.40	12.6	12.6	-0.01
James Harden	79	76	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.28	3	-5	8	16.2	18.4	-2.30	12.2	13.8	-1.57
Paul Millsap	19	19	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	3	-8	17.6	16.4	1.19	12.3	12.7	-0.36
Shake Milton	30	30	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.19	-2	0	-2	17.7	16.2	1.51	13.9	12.0	1.92
Joel Embiid	81	79	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.38	3	-5	8	16.3	17.9	-1.56	12.7	12.3	0.36
Georges Niang	42	38	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.39	3	-5	8	16.9	16.4	0.54	12.2	12.8	-0.64
Tobias Harris	72	74	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.50	-3	1	-4	16.9	15.9	0.95	12.8	12.1	0.63
Tyrese Maxey	81	83	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.45	-6	4	-10	16.8	15.7	1.16	12.4	13.5	-1.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.36,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.89,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.75,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.35,0.27,0.19,0.37,0.33,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 97, WAS 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.77,0.89,0.88,0.81,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.54,0.42,0.41,0.24,0.17,0.19,0.28,0.16,0.1,0	92.3%
SAC 98, LAC 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.63,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.41,0.53,0.47,0.38,0.29,0.23,0.15,0	90.2%
WAS 106, DET 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.53,0.64,0.61,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.71,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.65,0.75,0.79,0.87,0.81,0.89,0.85,0.78,0.71,0.42,0.53,0.41,0.46,0.28,0.38,0.46,0.14,0.04,0	90.2%