NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	124		Excitement	16.2 [1]		MVP	Scottie Barnes (TOR): +39.1%
Miami Heat	120		Comeback	19.2 [83]		LVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): -41.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Scottie Barnes	0.39	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39	0.08	0.30	-0.01	13	69%	0.50	3	-0.11	6	83%	0.15
Fred VanVleet	0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.32,-0.32,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,0.03,0.03,0.18,0.31,0.31,0.22	-0.10	0.29	-0.03	22	43%	0.38	5	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Precious Achiuwa	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.01	-0.02	5	80%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Boucher	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gary Trent Jr.	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01	0.14	-0.14	0.01	28	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.09
Dalano Banton	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	-0.18	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18	-0.04	-0.12	0.02	18	50%	-0.01	4	-0.17	6	100%	0.05
OG Anunoby	-0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.14,-0.25,-0.37,-0.37,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.05	-0.24	-0.00	21	45%	-0.10	3	-0.18	2	0%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gabe Vincent	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.18,0.18,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.23	0.23	0.02	0.23	0.01	15	57%	0.39	3	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Tucker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.02	0.17	-0.00	12	46%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.00	7	69%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.02	0.00	7	79%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	5	0%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.17,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	0.06	-0.30	0.03	26	59%	-0.00	5	-0.27	11	73%	-0.01
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.06,0.08,0,-0.08,-0.28	-0.28	-0.21	-0.08	-0.01	22	30%	-0.18	5	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.28,-0.41,-0.41	-0.41	-0.11	-0.29	0.01	12	45%	0.00	6	-0.42	7	57%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2		OT3	Total
this game	23.4	2.5	26.4	15.3	28.8	1.8	31.2	2.8	11.0	2.5	13.1	2.6	16.2	177.6
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	2.3	15.4	2.3	15.4	2.3	15.4	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -14.1%

TOR +48.2%

MIA -0.9%

TOR +27.5%

MIA -10.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	16.5	15.3	14.5	104.2	100.8	110.8
season	14.9	14.9		111.3	112.0
opponent	14.9	14.8		107.6	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
TOR	18.9	14.4	13.8	20.1	16.8	16.5
MIA	15.2	13.8	13.4	15.1	20.8	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pascal Siakam	106	107	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.35	8	-4	12	16.2	18.8	-2.55	15.7	11.4	4.28
Gary Trent Jr.	103	103	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.48	2	2	0	16.6	15.6	1.08	15.5	13.7	1.83
Fred VanVleet	99	99	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.47	1	3	-2	16.7	15.2	1.50	15.4	14.8	0.50
Chris Boucher	26	25	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.15	3	1	2	16.7	16.4	0.30	12.2	16.1	-3.94
OG Anunoby	104	106	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.35	-5	9	-14	16.7	15.0	1.71	15.1	16.8	-1.77
Scottie Barnes	96	95	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.12	5	-1	6	16.5	16.5	-0.03	15.8	13.1	2.69
Dalano Banton	19	19	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.09	3	1	2	15.1	16.8	-1.72	14.8	15.3	-0.51
Precious Achiuwa	33	32	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.05	-1	5	-6	16.6	16.4	0.19	13.6	15.9	-2.33

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caleb Martin	44	41	0.52	-1.02	1.55	0.26	9	-13	22	13.2	16.5	-3.31	18.3	15.6	2.74
Max Strus	50	50	0.41	-0.91	1.31	0.23	6	-10	16	13.9	16.2	-2.29	17.1	16.1	0.97
Dewayne Dedmon	36	35	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.10	4	-8	12	12.9	16.3	-3.45	17.1	16.3	0.80
Tyler Herro	85	82	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.50	9	-13	22	14.8	16.4	-1.64	17.0	15.3	1.74
Jimmy Butler	97	98	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.43	1	-5	6	15.6	14.0	1.56	16.5	16.7	-0.21
Duncan Robinson	37	40	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.05	-17	13	-30	16.2	14.9	1.34	15.5	17.0	-1.50
Bam Adebayo	83	84	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.28	-8	4	-12	16.3	12.9	3.45	16.3	17.1	-0.80
P.J. Tucker	76	78	-0.85	0.35	-1.20	-0.47	-13	9	-22	16.6	13.0	3.55	15.6	18.3	-2.74
Gabe Vincent	87	87	-1.00	0.50	-1.50	-0.68	-11	7	-18	15.7	14.1	1.65	16.2	17.4	-1.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.35,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.23,0.15,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.3,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.17,0.24,0.33,0.52,0.55,0.25,0.42,0.54,0.45,0.63,0.55,0.72,0.54,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.63,0.54,0.55,0.37,0.11,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 87, LAL 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.35,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.23,0.22,0.13,0.26,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.47,0.29,0.28,0.38,0.46,0.68,0.42,1	86.8%
TOR 101, CLE 105	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.47,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.31,0.37,0.29,0.58,1	86.5%
POR 88, SEA 91	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.26,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.16,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.13,0.3,0.34,0.58,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.39,0.46,0.55,0.72,1	86.2%