NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	112		Excitement	8.9 [141]		MVP	Kyle Lowry (MIA): +34.4%
Miami Heat	115		Comeback	8.2 [369]		LVP	Josh Jackson (DET): -14.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Saddiq Bey	0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.19,0.19,0.33	0.10	0.23	0.01	13	74%	0.47	4	-0.15	5	100%	0.02
Trey Lyles	0.23	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.23	0.14	0.10	0.02	13	76%	0.35	4	-0.12	11	100%	0.10
Frank Jackson	0.13	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.07	0.01	15	58%	0.17	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
Luka Garza	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Cheick Diallo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.07,0	0.06	-0.05	0.01	15	66%	0.16	4	-0.16	2	100%	0.02
Jamorko Pickett	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hamidou Diallo	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.01	-0.08	0.01	12	46%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05
Josh Jackson	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	8	25%	-0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.27,0.34,0.34	0.34	0.12	0.22	-0.00	15	68%	0.38	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.2,0.25,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.37,0.33	0.33	0.14	0.19	0.00	21	62%	0.34	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.00
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.31	0.31	0.15	0.19	0.04	18	70%	0.36	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.07	0.01	9	68%	0.15	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	0.00	3	78%	0.13	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
KZ Okpala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	6	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Omer Yurtseven	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.09,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	0.00	8	50%	0.04	5	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	2.4	25.2	14.7	29.2	2.6	34.5	137.8
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +43.7%

DET -12.5%

MIA +5.1%

MIA +15.5%

DET -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	13.5	14.7	14.5	110.9	111.7	110.8
season	14.6	14.9		105.0	112.0
opponent	14.9	14.4		107.6	112.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.0	13.0	12.9	15.2	13.5
MIA	15.8	12.8	15.9	14.8	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Jackson	47	45	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.06	0	-3	3	13.6	13.4	0.21	14.6	14.8	-0.21
Trey Lyles	76	80	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.40	13	-16	29	13.3	14.0	-0.74	15.1	13.3	1.85
Cheick Diallo	8	8	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.00	-1	-2	1	9.9	13.8	-3.92	10.4	15.1	-4.73
Luka Garza	10	10	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.06	-11	8	-19	16.2	13.2	3.01	13.7	14.8	-1.15
Jamorko Pickett	32	32	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.09	-7	4	-11	14.3	13.1	1.21	14.3	14.9	-0.57
Cory Joseph	89	90	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.40	2	-5	7	13.4	14.3	-0.96	14.9	13.4	1.55
Saddiq Bey	91	91	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.40	-3	0	-3	13.5	13.1	0.43	14.8	14.1	0.74
Hamidou Diallo	71	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.38	-4	1	-5	13.4	13.8	-0.45	14.4	15.6	-1.14
Frank Jackson	81	84	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.52	-4	1	-5	13.5	13.5	-0.02	15.1	13.3	1.81

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	23	24	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.47	5	-2	7	15.8	14.4	1.40	13.8	13.4	0.40
Max Strus	86	84	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.35	7	-4	11	15.1	12.9	2.22	13.7	12.6	1.08
Tyler Herro	74	72	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.31	7	-4	11	14.4	15.7	-1.28	13.5	13.3	0.20
Kyle Lowry	80	78	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.41	3	0	3	15.2	13.0	2.29	13.1	14.7	-1.62
Gabe Vincent	70	71	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.55	-5	8	-13	15.0	14.3	0.68	14.1	12.0	2.07
Omer Yurtseven	55	52	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.19	16	-13	29	13.7	15.9	-2.21	14.0	13.0	1.02
Marcus Garrett	43	40	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.09	11	-8	19	14.1	15.2	-1.11	14.1	13.1	1.02
Dewayne Dedmon	11	12	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	4	-5	14.6	14.7	-0.11	14.1	13.4	0.68
Duncan Robinson	46	46	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.16	-13	16	-29	14.9	14.6	0.24	12.6	14.2	-1.57
KZ Okpala	27	26	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	0.10	-15	18	-33	14.5	14.8	-0.35	11.2	14.3	-3.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.43,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.31,0.29,0.2,0.17,0.27,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.47,0.53,0.37,0.41,0.46,0.32,0.14,0.23,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 89, TOR 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.27,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.53,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.53,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.58,1	90.6%
NYK 87, IND 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.36,0.3,0.25,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.3,0.39,0.32,0.25,0.34,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.41,0.35,0.46,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.82,1	90.1%
HOU 110, MEM 115	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.29,0.32,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.36,0.33,0.47,0.38,0.28,0.31,0.73,1	90.0%