NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	85		Excitement	9.2 [124]		MVP	De'Anthony Melton (MEM): +25.4%
Memphis Grizzlies	89		Comeback	2.9 [426]		LVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): -21.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Max Strus	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	0.00	4	87%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.04	0.08	-0.03	0.00	20	56%	0.08	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Duncan Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	13	45%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Kelly Olynyk	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05	0.00	-0.05	0.00	11	54%	0.09	3	-0.14	6	83%	0.01
Kendrick Nunn	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	10	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.06	-0.10	0.04	-0.00	11	25%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.11
Precious Achiuwa	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	5	17%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
KZ Okpala	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	2	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,-0.06,0.08,-0.21	-0.03	-0.18	0.00	11	46%	0.01	2	-0.22	2	100%	0.02

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
De'Anthony Melton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.25	0.25	0.04	0.21	-0.00	9	59%	0.29	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.10
Desmond Bane	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.00	5	80%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ja Morant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.16,0.03	0.03	-0.08	0.09	-0.02	15	37%	0.15	2	-0.11	5	60%	-0.02
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	5	58%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Brandon Clarke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	8	28%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.06	-0.11	0.02	9	59%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Dillon Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	13	36%	-0.08	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Grayson Allen	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.08	-0.07	0.01	13	33%	-0.11	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	1.8	25.5	14.8	25.7	2.0	37.6	133.7
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +30.5%

MIA -2.1%

MEM +4.7%

MEM +17.0%

MIA -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MEM	NBA	MIA	MEM	NBA
this game	15.0	15.5	14.4	89.5	94.7	111.3
season	14.6	14.0		109.3	111.2
opponent	14.5	14.9		110.4	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.2	17.2	15.9	12.8	15.0
MEM	15.2	15.5	13.5	18.0	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendrick Nunn	50	50	0.32	-0.82	1.15	0.00	11	-15	26	14.9	15.1	-0.17	14.8	16.3	-1.45
Bam Adebayo	72	71	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.36	14	-18	32	13.9	18.3	-4.33	16.1	13.7	2.33
Max Strus	15	15	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-7	10	17.7	14.5	3.19	13.3	15.9	-2.58
Kelly Olynyk	35	36	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.08	1	-5	6	14.1	15.5	-1.37	17.2	14.4	2.79
Duncan Robinson	67	65	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.25	3	-7	10	14.0	17.2	-3.22	15.9	14.7	1.17
Jimmy Butler	69	70	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.37	3	-7	10	14.8	15.6	-0.82	15.7	15.0	0.73
KZ Okpala	41	40	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.07	-14	10	-24	15.2	14.8	0.47	15.4	15.6	-0.17
Precious Achiuwa	20	20	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.02	-17	13	-30	19.6	13.7	5.92	11.1	16.7	-5.53
Tyler Herro	48	48	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.40	-5	1	-6	15.1	14.9	0.25	16.9	14.1	2.77
Goran Dragic	58	55	-0.84	0.34	-1.17	-0.28	-19	15	-34	15.6	13.9	1.69	14.7	16.7	-2.04

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
De'Anthony Melton	45	47	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.24	20	-16	36	13.5	17.3	-3.82	15.9	14.1	1.81
Brandon Clarke	49	50	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.25	12	-8	20	13.4	17.8	-4.33	15.7	14.2	1.44
Justise Winslow	35	36	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.18	14	-10	24	14.4	16.2	-1.80	17.3	13.5	3.79
Desmond Bane	34	34	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.18	11	-7	18	15.2	15.6	-0.41	16.3	14.2	2.05
Ja Morant	71	71	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.37	2	2	0	15.2	16.4	-1.24	14.8	15.4	-0.53
Kyle Anderson	62	61	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.22	-5	9	-14	15.8	15.0	0.81	13.7	17.2	-3.51
Tyus Jones	23	24	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	2	0	16.4	15.2	1.24	15.4	14.8	0.53
Jonas Valanciunas	45	45	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.13	-8	12	-20	17.8	13.4	4.33	14.2	15.7	-1.44
Dillon Brooks	57	59	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.15	-11	15	-26	16.2	14.4	1.85	14.0	16.6	-2.58
Grayson Allen	49	48	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	0.18	-17	21	-38	17.1	13.7	3.39	14.2	15.8	-1.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.3,0.36,0.35,0.26,0.35,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.74,0.81,0.86,0.86,0.72,0.67,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 88, TOR 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.63,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.71,0.83,0.72,0.74,0.81,0.87,0.81,0.84,0.78,0.85,1	91.3%
CHA 93, MIL 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.27,0.3,0.33,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.77,0.79,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.72,0.84,0.72,1	90.9%
CLE 87, POR 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.68,0.66,0.78,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.46,0.67,0.59,1	90.8%