NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	128		Excitement	8.7 [177]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +94.6%
Washington Wizards	130		Comeback	5.0 [135]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (WAS): -27.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.95	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.26,0.95	0.18	0.76	-0.01	25	64%	0.97	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.02
Facundo Campazzo	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.11	0.05	0.00	7	82%	0.17	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
JaMychal Green	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	4	100%	0.11	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Nikola Jokic	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07	0.17	-0.05	0.06	21	69%	0.11	3	-0.05	6	100%	0.04
R.J. Hampton	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	2	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Hartenstein	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	5	73%	0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Zeke Nnaji	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04	0.02	-0.08	-0.01	11	58%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Monte Morris	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	8	44%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.84	0.84	0.44	0.43	0.03	11	117%	0.84	0	0.00	8	100%	0.11
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.56	0.56	0.03	0.51	-0.02	20	52%	0.61	3	-0.06	8	100%	0.07
Raul Neto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.16	0.03	0.01	5	108%	0.18	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Alex Len	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.00	8	56%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Garrison Mathews	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.01	6	53%	0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	6	69%	0.05	1	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Rui Hachimura	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	0.01	0.04	11	56%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Moritz Wagner	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Deni Avdija	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.23,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.25	-0.07	-0.05	15	33%	-0.06	8	-0.21	6	33%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	1.8	28.9	14.0	28.2	2.5	36.3	136.5
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -47.0%

WAS +83.1%

WAS +16.8%

DEN -4.4%

WAS +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	WAS	NBA	DEN	WAS	NBA
this game	14.8	13.1	14.4	124.3	126.2	111.3
season	15.0	13.3		116.0	109.9
opponent	14.1	14.4		112.4	112.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.9	15.8	16.1	13.5	14.8
WAS	13.8	9.0	13.4	17.3	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Harris	58	59	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.15	10	-12	22	14.6	15.2	-0.57	14.5	11.3	3.16
Isaiah Hartenstein	22	22	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.05	-7	5	-12	16.6	14.4	2.23	10.5	13.8	-3.28
Zeke Nnaji	30	31	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.06	-8	6	-14	15.4	14.6	0.75	10.6	14.2	-3.60
R.J. Hampton	16	16	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.07	-5	3	-8	15.2	14.8	0.49	12.8	13.2	-0.37
JaMychal Green	64	64	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.45	8	-10	18	14.0	16.3	-2.33	14.1	11.5	2.68
Monte Morris	43	43	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.04	-10	8	-18	15.7	14.2	1.52	11.5	14.3	-2.73
Michael Porter Jr.	64	66	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.36	1	-3	4	13.9	16.4	-2.45	14.1	11.3	2.81
Nikola Jokic	78	78	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.50	5	-7	12	14.3	16.6	-2.33	14.0	10.3	3.76
Jamal Murray	84	82	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.45	3	-5	8	14.9	14.4	0.57	13.5	11.7	1.83
Facundo Campazzo	56	54	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.39	-7	5	-12	16.0	13.4	2.59	11.2	15.3	-4.08

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robin Lopez	58	59	0.90	-0.40	1.30	0.58	11	-9	20	12.9	13.5	-0.60	14.5	15.3	-0.80
Davis Bertans	63	63	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.26	10	-8	18	13.1	13.2	-0.12	14.8	14.9	-0.15
Russell Westbrook	83	83	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.47	0	2	-2	13.5	11.7	1.77	15.0	14.3	0.60
Deni Avdija	45	47	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.02	14	-12	26	11.1	14.7	-3.66	15.9	13.9	1.99
Bradley Beal	77	78	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.38	-1	3	-4	13.8	11.0	2.84	14.3	16.4	-2.07
Rui Hachimura	63	62	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.42	-6	8	-14	14.1	11.5	2.58	14.0	16.0	-1.98
Alex Len	37	36	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.07	2	0	2	13.5	12.9	0.60	15.7	14.4	1.28
Moritz Wagner	6	7	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.09	-6	8	-14	15.2	13.0	2.17	13.1	15.0	-1.82
Raul Neto	47	45	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.28	2	0	2	11.1	14.8	-3.72	15.5	14.3	1.16
Garrison Mathews	36	35	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.19	-16	18	-34	14.0	12.6	1.39	14.9	14.8	0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.62,0.56,0.79,0.81,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.85,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 87, GSW 102	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.23,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.72,0.69,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.76,0.72,0.92,0.98,0.99,1,0.98,0.99,1,1	92.4%
TOR 95, DET 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.28,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.83,0.85,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.99,1	92.2%
NOP 95, GSW 110	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.58,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.63,0.68,0.59,0.7,0.63,0.75,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.93,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,1	92.2%