NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	112		Excitement	9.1 [160]		MVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): +51.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	119		Comeback	1.3 [715]		LVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): -44.5%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Smart	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.11	0.04	0.02	11	77%	0.30	4	-0.17	8	75%	0.00
Kemba Walker	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.02	-0.00	9	73%	0.16	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	15	56%	0.11	1	-0.02	9	78%	0.01
Brad Wanamaker	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	9	64%	0.13	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Enes Kanter	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Semi Ojeleye	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Theis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	13	46%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Gordon Hayward	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	14	52%	0.07	4	-0.15	5	100%	0.03
Jayson Tatum	-0.44	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.33,-0.33,-0.44,-0.44	-0.25	-0.23	-0.03	18	13%	-0.37	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.45,0.51	0.51	0.20	0.33	0.02	20	69%	0.62	2	-0.10	12	58%	-0.05
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.09	-0.00	4	90%	0.18	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	6	60%	0.12	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	5	60%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	2	87%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
D.J. Wilson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.06	-0.01	10	58%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	-0.00	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Donte DiVincenzo	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.06	0.01	8	62%	0.02	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Sterling Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	4	33%	-0.04	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.10	-0.00	20	41%	-0.08	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.9	2.7	38.5	14.7	30.0	2.8	34.4	152.9
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +43.7%

MIL +8.7%

BOS -14.0%

MIL +13.0%

BOS -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIL	NBA	BOS	MIL	NBA
this game	13.7	13.5	14.2	106.7	111.2	109.6
season	14.5	13.2		112.0	111.0
opponent	14.1	14.4		102.6	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.4	10.8	15.6	15.5	13.7
MIL	13.8	14.1	13.2	12.8	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Semi Ojeleye	32	30	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.10	0	-7	7	15.6	12.8	2.78	13.5	13.5	0.03
Grant Williams	12	12	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-11	15	8.5	14.4	-5.87	13.9	13.4	0.50
Brad Wanamaker	57	60	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.23	9	-16	25	12.7	14.9	-2.25	13.8	13.1	0.66
Kemba Walker	42	41	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.14	-12	5	-17	15.0	12.8	2.25	13.3	13.6	-0.22
Gordon Hayward	76	77	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-3	-1	13.4	14.6	-1.23	13.7	13.0	0.66
Marcus Smart	72	74	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.46	3	-10	13	12.5	16.3	-3.80	13.5	13.4	0.12
Daniel Theis	66	66	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.14	-13	6	-19	14.9	11.6	3.31	14.0	12.7	1.33
Jaylen Brown	73	77	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.32	-7	0	-7	13.4	14.3	-0.84	13.5	13.4	0.15
Jayson Tatum	70	71	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.22	-13	6	-19	14.4	12.2	2.24	13.1	14.3	-1.25

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Giannis Antetokounmpo	71	71	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.25	18	-11	29	12.9	14.6	-1.67	14.4	12.2	2.20
Donte DiVincenzo	59	58	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.15	13	-6	19	13.0	14.1	-1.10	14.1	13.1	0.99
Brook Lopez	61	60	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.15	13	-6	19	14.3	12.4	1.90	14.8	12.3	2.50
Khris Middleton	71	70	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.12	13	-6	19	13.8	12.9	0.89	14.1	12.9	1.26
Wesley Matthews	60	57	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.00	12	-5	17	13.3	13.7	-0.44	14.7	12.5	2.16
George Hill	64	62	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.40	-4	11	-15	13.4	13.6	-0.21	12.7	15.1	-2.45
Kyle Korver	33	31	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.10	0	7	-7	13.7	13.4	0.27	12.8	14.1	-1.22
D.J. Wilson	1	1	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.03	0	7	-7	1.0	13.6	-12.59	5.0	13.8	-8.78
Ersan Ilyasova	31	30	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.16	-7	14	-21	14.9	12.9	1.96	12.7	14.1	-1.39
Robin Lopez	33	32	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.08	-7	14	-21	13.5	13.5	-0.03	12.1	14.4	-2.35
Sterling Brown	51	53	-0.43	0.93	-1.35	0.04	-16	23	-39	13.1	13.9	-0.80	12.8	14.6	-1.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.68,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.81,0.75,0.8,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.62,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.6,0.75,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.65,0.77,0.61,0.55,0.43,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 84, MIA 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.77,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.84,1	91.7%
NJN 96, BOS 99	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.74,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.75,0.77,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.76,0.65,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.41,0.6,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.96,1	91.2%
GSW 89, DEN 97	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.62,0.67,0.75,0.72,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.54,0.62,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.66,0.55,0.63,0.57,0.91,1	91.1%