NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	113		Excitement	7.6 [343]		MVP	Terrence Ross (ORL): +43.2%
Miami Heat	116		Comeback	1.7 [743]		LVP	D.J. Augustin (ORL): -12.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Ross	0.43	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.29,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.43	0.33	0.11	0.01	18	85%	0.52	1	-0.09	5	60%	-0.01
Evan Fournier	0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.15	0.03	0.01	9	85%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Vucevic	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.14	0.11	0.05	0.01	16	63%	0.16	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Markelle Fultz	0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	0.01	10	64%	0.10	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Michael Carter-Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.02,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.05	-0.00	9	53%	0.12	4	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04	0.02	-0.04	0.01	10	52%	-0.00	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Mo Bamba	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Ennis III	-0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.29,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4	0.40	0.20	0.20	0.00	5	123%	0.40	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Duncan Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.25	0.08	-0.00	12	112%	0.41	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.03,0.09,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.13	0.12	0.01	15	74%	0.32	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.05
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	6	64%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	4	62%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.04	-0.00	9	50%	0.07	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	9	56%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Nunn	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	11	41%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	0.00	-0.02	8	19%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	29.7	14.8	24.8	2.0	36.2	133.4
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +42.8%

ORL -3.0%

MIA +8.1%

ORL -0.2%

MIA +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.3	15.3	14.2	121.5	122.1	109.6
season	14.7	14.7		107.1	111.7
opponent	14.5	14.2		108.9	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.5	16.0	14.5	16.6	15.3
MIA	13.8	15.3	16.2	16.2	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gordon	69	71	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.40	8	-11	19	15.0	16.2	-1.26	15.8	13.8	2.05
Nikola Vucevic	75	78	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.43	7	-10	17	15.3	15.6	-0.30	16.0	12.4	3.62
Michael Carter-Williams	34	34	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.01	-8	5	-13	16.1	14.8	1.32	14.2	16.0	-1.74
Evan Fournier	60	61	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.39	5	-8	13	14.7	16.4	-1.68	16.0	14.2	1.74
Markelle Fultz	60	61	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.39	5	-8	13	14.7	16.4	-1.68	16.0	14.2	1.74
D.J. Augustin	33	34	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.02	-8	5	-13	16.4	14.7	1.68	14.2	16.0	-1.74
Mo Bamba	15	15	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.03	-8	5	-13	15.9	15.2	0.74	13.3	15.7	-2.37
James Ennis III	54	54	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-9	6	-15	15.0	15.7	-0.70	14.3	16.7	-2.47
Terrence Ross	65	67	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.34	-7	4	-11	15.9	13.9	2.08	15.3	15.3	0.01

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jae Crowder	62	60	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.41	8	-5	13	15.1	15.7	-0.61	15.9	14.2	1.75
Goran Dragic	60	61	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.19	15	-12	27	14.9	16.0	-1.02	16.0	13.9	2.14
Duncan Robinson	71	71	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.32	7	-4	11	15.4	15.1	0.33	15.4	14.9	0.53
Andre Iguodala	32	32	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.11	7	-4	11	13.5	16.2	-2.71	16.2	14.8	1.38
Kelly Olynyk	33	31	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.03	9	-6	15	14.2	15.9	-1.75	16.3	14.8	1.47
Jimmy Butler	67	65	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.38	-4	7	-11	15.8	14.2	1.53	14.9	16.3	-1.44
Bam Adebayo	60	59	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.43	-8	11	-19	16.3	13.7	2.64	14.9	16.1	-1.18
Derrick Jones Jr.	42	40	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.12	-5	8	-13	15.8	15.0	0.78	14.6	15.8	-1.21
Kendrick Nunn	48	46	-0.33	0.83	-1.17	0.08	-14	17	-31	15.7	14.9	0.77	13.8	16.8	-2.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.76,0.79,0.81,0.76,0.72,0.64,0.63,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.66,0.74,0.62,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.46,0.53,0.75,0.85,0.98,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 89, UTA 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.76,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.67,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.61,0.85,0.91,0.92,1	92.6%
SAC 112, TOR 118	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.62,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.6,0.67,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.92,1	92.4%
CLE 88, MIN 94	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.29,0.47,0.53,0.4,0.34,0.55,0.79,0.86,0.96,1	91.7%