NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	113		Excitement	6.7 [531]		MVP	Torrey Craig (DEN): +24.7%
Washington Wizards	108		Comeback	4.8 [507]		LVP	Jabari Parker (WAS): -15.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Torrey Craig	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.2,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.10	0.14	-0.01	11	68%	0.25	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.15,0.14	0.03	0.10	-0.01	14	54%	0.17	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	5	92%	0.13	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Malik Beasley	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	9	56%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	8	83%	0.16	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Nikola Jokic	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	12	60%	0.07	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Mason Plumlee	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.00	10	59%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Gary Harris	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	0.03	15	44%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Thomas Bryant	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.18	0.18	0.19	0.01	0.01	11	81%	0.18	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Bobby Portis	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.05	0.01	11	72%	0.19	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Bradley Beal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.01	-0.01	19	61%	0.23	2	-0.11	3	100%	0.02
Wesley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	1	60%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Tomas Satoransky	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.04	0.02	7	89%	0.12	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Troy Brown Jr.	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.01	10	62%	0.07	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Chasson Randle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	3	0%	-0.09	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.00	11	27%	-0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	1.0	27.0	14.6	22.0	1.8	32.3	122.6
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +58.4%

WAS -32.5%

DEN +6.3%

DEN +15.0%

DEN +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	WAS	NBA	DEN	WAS	NBA
this game	16.9	14.4	14.3	122.8	117.4	109.3
season	14.8	13.8		112.0	109.8
opponent	14.3	14.6		112.4	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	18.2	17.5	17.2	15.1	16.9
WAS	13.9	16.0	14.1	13.7	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Torrey Craig	47	46	0.89	-0.39	1.27	0.33	19	-14	33	16.2	17.6	-1.41	15.4	13.3	2.07
Malik Beasley	36	37	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.17	21	-16	37	17.3	16.7	0.63	15.9	13.4	2.48
Mason Plumlee	48	46	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.16	15	-10	25	17.4	16.4	1.03	15.3	13.4	1.93
Monte Morris	40	41	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.12	15	-10	25	18.2	15.9	2.35	15.4	13.6	1.82
Paul Millsap	69	70	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.38	5	0	5	16.6	17.8	-1.20	14.1	15.4	-1.29
Jamal Murray	53	53	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.23	-10	15	-25	16.3	17.7	-1.42	13.5	15.5	-1.97
Nikola Jokic	67	68	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.17	-10	15	-25	16.9	17.0	-0.16	14.0	15.3	-1.29
Gary Harris	59	58	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.15	-12	17	-29	16.5	17.6	-1.06	13.7	15.6	-1.96
Will Barton	41	41	-0.48	0.98	-1.45	0.05	-18	23	-41	17.4	16.5	0.89	13.0	15.5	-2.53

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thomas Bryant	70	70	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.14	6	-11	17	13.9	15.8	-1.89	16.0	19.7	-3.68
Bobby Portis	69	69	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.30	11	-16	27	14.0	15.6	-1.58	17.9	14.1	3.72
Wesley Johnson	12	11	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-4	3	14.6	14.3	0.23	20.1	16.5	3.60
Bradley Beal	69	71	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.25	8	-13	21	14.3	14.6	-0.25	16.8	17.4	-0.59
Troy Brown Jr.	66	66	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.20	2	-7	9	13.8	15.7	-1.88	15.8	19.7	-3.91
Tomas Satoransky	70	68	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.24	0	-5	5	13.8	16.1	-2.25	16.3	18.7	-2.41
Chasson Randle	28	28	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.16	-16	11	-27	15.5	13.9	1.56	18.0	16.5	1.50
Jeff Green	38	38	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.25	-14	9	-23	15.7	13.4	2.27	18.1	16.1	1.92
Jabari Parker	38	39	-0.88	0.38	-1.25	-0.26	-21	16	-37	15.8	13.4	2.36	17.3	16.6	0.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.16,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.39,0.58,0.68,0.72,0.77,0.74,0.64,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.24,0.27,0.13,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 112, DEN 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.31,0.37,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.68,0.5,0.3,0.25,0.28,0.32,0.26,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.02,0,0	91.4%
MEM 99, PHX 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.39,0.3,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.18,0.39,0.52,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.76,0.67,0.56,0.66,0.57,0.34,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.25,0.1,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0	91.2%
DET 93, MIL 85	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.26,0.27,0.3,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.17,0.15,0.22,0.1,0.04,0.09,0,0	90.7%