NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	115		Excitement	10.0 [92]		MVP	Klay Thompson (GSW): +35.4%
Boston Celtics	111		Comeback	1.7 [725]		LVP	Draymond Green (GSW): -25.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Klay Thompson	0.35	0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.18,0.18,0.35	0.07	0.31	0.03	16	62%	0.40	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.08
Kevin Durant	0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.34,0.3,0.2	0.08	0.08	-0.04	23	56%	0.41	4	-0.21	13	92%	0.14
Stephen Curry	0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19	0.16	0.02	-0.02	15	71%	0.22	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
Kevon Looney	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	-0.00	5	67%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shaun Livingston	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	6	67%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	-0.00	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.02	9	60%	0.09	3	-0.09	7	86%	0.05
Alfonzo McKinnie	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	5	8%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Draymond Green	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.26	-0.05	-0.19	0.01	3	50%	-0.10	3	-0.16	4	50%	-0.08

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.02	0.01	15	61%	0.12	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Kyrie Irving	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,-0.04,0.07,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.07	0.07	0.06	-0.01	-0.03	27	55%	0.35	4	-0.27	4	100%	0.04
Al Horford	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	15	73%	0.29	5	-0.21	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.16,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.09	0.01	11	50%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Daniel Theis	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.05	-0.00	8	56%	0.03	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Gordon Hayward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	0.00	5	17%	-0.11	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.14	-0.14	-0.04	-0.11	-0.01	12	35%	-0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	3.3	28.3	14.5	26.4	3.3	34.6	135.1
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS -0.3%

GSW +45.7%

GSW +1.8%

GSW +2.0%

GSW +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	BOS	NBA	GSW	BOS	NBA
this game	13.0	14.7	14.3	109.5	107.8	109.3
season	13.4	13.9		114.5	109.9
opponent	14.7	15.0		106.3	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.0	12.8	13.5	13.9	13.0
BOS	14.1	13.9	17.2	13.8	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	87	85	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.51	12	-8	20	12.5	15.9	-3.43	14.5	15.4	-0.88
Stephen Curry	83	82	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.52	4	0	4	13.2	12.3	0.92	14.4	15.8	-1.44
Andre Iguodala	61	59	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.27	7	-3	10	12.0	14.5	-2.46	15.0	14.2	0.84
Kevon Looney	46	42	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.02	13	-9	22	12.4	13.6	-1.21	15.3	14.2	1.14
Alfonzo McKinnie	20	19	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.02	11	-7	18	11.0	13.5	-2.53	16.0	14.4	1.64
Shaun Livingston	31	30	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.02	2	2	0	14.7	12.4	2.31	15.2	14.4	0.76
Klay Thompson	75	74	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.31	-12	16	-28	13.6	11.6	2.03	14.0	16.3	-2.25
DeMarcus Cousins	49	51	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.15	-8	12	-20	14.3	11.9	2.40	14.4	14.9	-0.53
Draymond Green	73	73	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.17	-9	13	-22	13.2	12.6	0.61	14.8	14.4	0.32

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Rozier	37	40	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.09	-4	0	-4	15.3	14.3	0.95	13.6	12.7	0.97
Gordon Hayward	45	47	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.13	-8	4	-12	15.5	14.0	1.55	12.4	13.6	-1.20
Daniel Theis	7	8	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-2	0	17.1	14.5	2.66	10.9	13.2	-2.35
Al Horford	76	76	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.41	9	-13	22	14.2	16.1	-1.92	13.5	11.9	1.54
Jaylen Brown	46	49	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.02	-8	4	-12	15.1	14.3	0.85	13.5	12.6	0.87
Aron Baynes	20	21	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.09	-11	7	-18	15.7	14.4	1.29	12.3	13.2	-0.89
Kyrie Irving	87	88	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.32	0	-4	4	14.3	16.6	-2.25	13.2	12.2	1.04
Marcus Smart	65	64	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.40	2	-6	8	14.2	15.4	-1.25	12.7	13.6	-0.92
Jayson Tatum	70	70	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.55	4	-8	12	14.3	15.3	-0.99	12.5	14.1	-1.60
Marcus Morris	62	62	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.49	-2	-2	0	14.6	14.7	-0.04	13.5	12.3	1.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.35,0.42,0.35,0.29,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.38,0.34,0.22,0.25,0.26,0.18,0.33,0.47,0.63,0.47,0.47,0.2,0.31,0.54,0.23,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 99, MEM 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.49,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.3,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.72,0.45,0.28,0	92.4%
POR 110, DAL 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.49,0.46,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.4,0.34,0.42,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.45,0.34,0.22,0.25,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.19,0.28,0.15,0.27,0	89.9%
NYK 80, WAS 76	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.26,0.18,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.22,0.23,0.28,0.16,0.05,0	89.9%