NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	113		Excitement	5.6 [748]		MVP	Gerald Green (HOU): +24.3%
Houston Rockets	125		Comeback	1.5 [719]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -7.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monte Morris	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.01	0.01	13	75%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Malik Beasley	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.00	0.03	11	64%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	11	54%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Juancho Hernangomez	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	5	30%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	2	86%	0.08	2	-0.06	3	67%	0.00
Brandon Goodwin	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	1	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Trey Lyles	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	6	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	13	43%	-0.01	3	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Torrey Craig	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	6	31%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Nikola Jokic	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	20	59%	0.13	8	-0.20	1	100%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.20	0.08	0.04	10	91%	0.27	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.24	0.03	0.04	18	72%	0.24	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.01
PJ Tucker	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.20	0.01	0.03	11	95%	0.21	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.06	-0.03	18	63%	0.28	6	-0.11	15	80%	0.04
Danuel House Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	67%	0.06	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
James Ennis III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Brandon Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Rivers	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.10	-0.00	-0.05	7	25%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.6	2.3	30.6	15.4	25.3	1.8	25.3	129.2
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +51.1%

HOU +10.7%

DEN -16.9%

HOU +3.2%

HOU +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	15.0	14.0	14.3	115.3	123.8	109.3
season	14.8	14.8		112.0	114.0
opponent	14.4	14.6		109.3	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.9	15.6	17.8	13.0	15.0
HOU	12.3	12.1	15.8	16.4	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mason Plumlee	30	34	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.13	5	-17	22	14.9	15.0	-0.13	13.7	14.2	-0.49
Trey Lyles	36	37	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.23	8	-20	28	12.9	16.2	-3.27	15.8	13.0	2.86
Brandon Goodwin	9	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-17	22	8.1	15.7	-7.54	17.8	13.6	4.22
Juancho Hernangomez	39	42	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.23	7	-19	26	13.0	16.3	-3.25	16.0	12.6	3.42
Monte Morris	49	52	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.16	2	-14	16	13.7	16.2	-2.45	15.0	13.0	2.02
Malik Beasley	53	56	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.17	2	-14	16	14.0	16.1	-2.17	14.7	13.1	1.68
Paul Millsap	44	45	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.02	-14	2	-16	16.4	13.8	2.63	13.1	14.7	-1.56
Torrey Craig	53	54	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.10	-17	5	-22	16.5	13.2	3.34	12.8	15.3	-2.51
Gary Harris	56	57	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.07	-12	0	-12	15.9	13.7	2.22	12.9	15.4	-2.42
Nikola Jokic	59	57	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.13	-22	10	-32	16.1	13.3	2.74	13.5	14.6	-1.09
Jamal Murray	62	61	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	0.15	-24	12	-36	16.0	13.1	2.88	12.7	16.0	-3.39

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
PJ Tucker	79	78	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.00	27	-15	42	13.7	15.2	-1.57	15.0	14.7	0.33
Clint Capela	77	77	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.01	26	-14	40	13.6	15.3	-1.69	15.0	14.7	0.31
James Harden	83	82	0.67	-0.17	0.84	-0.00	23	-11	34	13.9	14.6	-0.74	15.2	13.6	1.67
Austin Rivers	85	80	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.16	6	6	0	14.4	11.9	2.45	14.8	15.6	-0.80
Gerald Green	60	58	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.28	-2	14	-16	14.2	13.7	0.57	13.9	16.5	-2.56
James Ennis III	28	29	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.07	2	10	-8	14.3	13.9	0.40	16.0	14.5	1.48
Danuel House Jr.	55	52	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.02	-2	14	-16	13.8	14.2	-0.44	15.7	14.2	1.52
Brandon Knight	14	13	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.07	-6	18	-24	13.6	14.1	-0.50	13.2	15.2	-1.99
Nene	24	21	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.14	-14	26	-40	15.3	13.6	1.69	14.7	15.0	-0.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.58,0.56,0.66,0.67,0.81,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.83,0.83,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.85,0.89,0.92,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 94, TOR 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.85,0.92,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.97,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
MIN 90, CHA 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.83,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.7%
GSW 98, LAC 110	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.73,0.75,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.81,0.86,0.84,0.81,0.87,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.87,0.89,0.94,0.89,0.88,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.95,1,1,1	94.6%