NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	124		Excitement	6.2 [621]		MVP	Clint Capela (HOU): +23.6%
Houston Rockets	126		Comeback	1.6 [1069]		LVP	Blake Griffin (DET): -16.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Langston Galloway	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.11	0.04	-0.00	6	100%	0.19	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Andre Drummond	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	12	61%	0.08	2	-0.04	9	33%	-0.08
Stanley Johnson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	7	56%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Jon Leuer	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Glenn Robinson III	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.02	0.01	4	60%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jose Calderon	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Bullock	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.04	8	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	9	45%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Ish Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	0.01	-0.03	0.03	12	46%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Blake Griffin	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.14,-0.15,-0.12,-0.08,-0.16	0.05	-0.13	0.09	21	65%	0.10	9	-0.26	15	87%	0.03

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.20	0.04	0.01	14	84%	0.26	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.17	0.17	0.20	0.04	0.07	20	73%	0.32	6	-0.15	19	100%	0.08
James Ennis III	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.02	-0.00	5	87%	0.13	1	-0.00	6	83%	0.01
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	3	100%	0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	16	56%	0.08	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Isaiah Hartenstein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	60%	0.03	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.02	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Gary Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	1.6	24.4	13.7	32.3	1.6	41.5	143.5
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +47.8%

HOU +8.1%

DET -15.0%

HOU +13.7%

DET -4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	HOU	NBA	DET	HOU	NBA
this game	15.5	12.9	14.3	121.6	124.8	109.3
season	15.3	14.8		107.5	114.0
opponent	14.4	14.0		109.3	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.4	15.2	16.4	14.1	15.5
HOU	12.4	13.6	13.1	12.5	12.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jose Calderon	0	1	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-5	8	0.0	15.5	-15.47	1.0	13.0	-12.01
Stanley Johnson	54	53	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-1	0	16.0	14.9	1.09	13.1	12.7	0.43
Zaza Pachulia	15	15	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.07	-7	5	-12	17.3	15.2	2.11	11.8	13.1	-1.28
Glenn Robinson III	28	27	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	0	-2	16.9	14.9	1.96	12.1	13.2	-1.01
Langston Galloway	56	54	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.32	6	-8	14	14.4	16.8	-2.39	13.5	12.2	1.27
Andre Drummond	60	59	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.41	8	-10	18	14.9	16.3	-1.35	13.3	12.3	0.95
Jon Leuer	27	27	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.10	-3	1	-4	15.7	15.4	0.32	12.6	13.0	-0.36
Ish Smith	65	65	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.41	6	-8	14	14.6	16.9	-2.32	12.7	13.3	-0.64
Reggie Jackson	48	47	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.06	-10	8	-18	16.4	14.6	1.83	13.2	12.6	0.52
Reggie Bullock	76	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.38	-1	-1	0	15.7	14.8	0.84	12.8	13.3	-0.58
Blake Griffin	81	80	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.35	-9	7	-16	15.3	16.2	-0.91	12.9	12.8	0.10

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	77	79	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.32	9	-7	16	12.8	13.3	-0.53	15.4	15.7	-0.29
Clint Capela	77	76	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.32	4	-2	6	13.1	12.2	0.84	15.9	14.3	1.56
Eric Gordon	66	68	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.43	0	2	-2	12.9	12.8	0.10	14.8	16.7	-1.90
James Ennis III	67	69	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.38	0	2	-2	12.9	12.8	0.15	15.5	15.4	0.16
PJ Tucker	61	61	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.05	7	-5	12	13.6	11.7	1.89	16.2	14.3	1.93
Chris Paul	75	72	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.40	-9	11	-20	13.0	12.6	0.37	15.5	15.4	0.05
Gary Clark	38	40	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.19	-2	4	-6	12.4	13.2	-0.75	15.6	15.4	0.17
Isaiah Hartenstein	24	25	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.12	-2	4	-6	12.2	13.1	-0.84	14.7	15.7	-1.05
Gerald Green	31	30	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.04	-1	3	-4	12.5	13.1	-0.54	14.2	16.0	-1.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.72,0.66,0.52,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.86,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.93,0.99,0.94,0.99,0.94,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 103, HOU 112	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.81,0.78,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.9,0.99,1,1,1	94.4%
CHA 109, WAS 121	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.78,0.79,0.63,0.71,0.83,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.98,1,1	94.3%
MEM 82, MIA 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.74,0.84,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%