NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	93		Excitement	9.3 [141]		MVP	Danny Green (TOR): +57.4%
Orlando Magic	91		Comeback	1.7 [794]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): -20.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Green	0.57	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.57	0.01	0.56	-0.00	13	50%	0.59	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0.18	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,0,0.18	-0.03	0.21	0.00	15	47%	0.22	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.04	-0.02	11	65%	0.18	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Lorenzo Brown	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	5	67%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kawhi Leonard	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.15,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	16	51%	0.04	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.05
Delon Wright	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.08,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.04	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Fred VanVleet	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	5	33%	-0.06	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.05,0,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.09	-0.01	8	50%	0.05	3	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.21	-0.04	-0.17	0.00	9	50%	-0.05	3	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.12,0.24,0.43	0.43	0.11	0.34	0.02	20	64%	0.56	2	-0.12	2	50%	-0.02
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	6	42%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Bamba	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	3	87%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jonathan Isaac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Jonathon Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wes Iwundu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.02	-0.09	0.01	3	70%	0.04	1	-0.12	4	75%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	12	54%	-0.02	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Jerian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.01	10	20%	-0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.04	-0.15	0.01	15	46%	-0.07	3	-0.13	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	1.8	24.0	14.8	24.5	2.0	28.8	122.2
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +78.7%

ORL -8.4%

ORL -17.0%

ORL -6.8%

TOR +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ORL	NBA	TOR	ORL	NBA
this game	15.1	14.8	14.3	96.9	93.8	109.3
season	14.3	14.9		111.5	107.2
opponent	14.3	14.5		107.2	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.2	15.6	15.2	15.2	15.1
ORL	14.6	15.0	14.8	14.8	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fred VanVleet	52	52	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.50	6	-4	10	15.0	15.2	-0.18	15.6	13.9	1.71
Serge Ibaka	61	61	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.47	2	0	2	15.4	14.4	1.04	13.9	16.2	-2.29
Danny Green	68	68	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.52	-4	6	-10	15.3	14.4	0.95	13.9	16.8	-2.82
Lorenzo Brown	38	39	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.10	6	-4	10	14.8	15.2	-0.36	15.7	14.2	1.56
Kawhi Leonard	61	61	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.32	-3	5	-8	15.2	14.7	0.50	14.8	14.7	0.05
Jonas Valanciunas	41	41	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.12	3	-1	4	14.4	15.5	-1.09	15.9	14.0	1.94
Kyle Lowry	66	67	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.38	-6	8	-14	15.1	14.9	0.19	13.9	16.9	-3.02
Delon Wright	26	26	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.09	5	-3	8	14.8	15.2	-0.40	17.0	14.0	2.98
Pascal Siakam	67	70	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.11	1	1	0	14.9	15.4	-0.55	14.6	15.1	-0.51

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
D.J. Augustin	54	52	0.27	-0.77	1.05	0.01	9	-11	20	14.4	15.3	-0.93	14.9	15.2	-0.26
Jonathon Simmons	19	18	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	2	-6	15.6	14.6	0.99	15.7	14.9	0.74
Evan Fournier	71	70	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.36	8	-10	18	14.1	16.7	-2.66	15.3	14.5	0.82
Terrence Ross	40	41	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.11	-8	6	-14	15.8	14.1	1.73	14.4	15.5	-1.09
Nikola Vucevic	69	68	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.40	8	-10	18	13.8	17.2	-3.47	15.3	14.5	0.84
Jonathan Isaac	39	41	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.04	-6	4	-10	15.5	14.3	1.22	15.2	15.0	0.19
Mo Bamba	28	28	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.04	-10	8	-18	17.2	13.8	3.47	14.5	15.3	-0.84
Aaron Gordon	74	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.47	2	-4	6	15.0	14.1	0.86	15.1	15.0	0.03
Wes Iwundu	48	46	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.55	2	-4	6	13.8	15.8	-2.00	14.9	15.2	-0.25
Jerian Grant	43	44	-0.77	0.27	-1.05	-0.45	-11	9	-20	15.3	14.4	0.93	15.2	14.9	0.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.53,0.45,0.24,0.47,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 104, DET 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.23,0.21,0.17,0.15,0.24,0.25,0.29,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.36,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.44,0.37,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.23,0.42,0	92.6%
SAC 92, DEN 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.24,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.67,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.33,0.46,0.23,0.26,0	91.5%
OKC 100, MIN 98	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.35,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.26,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.48,0.63,0.47,0.47,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.1,0.42,0	91.1%