NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	118		Excitement	9.0 [183]		MVP	Ish Smith (DET): +42.7%
Chicago Bulls	116		Comeback	2.0 [674]		LVP	Bobby Portis (CHI): -19.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ish Smith	0.43	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.15,0.43	0.06	0.36	-0.01	11	68%	0.50	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Blake Griffin	0.37	0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.26,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.39,0.37	0.19	0.20	0.01	23	63%	0.37	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Reggie Jackson	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.11	0.12	0.00	9	75%	0.28	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Glenn Robinson III	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.05	-0.01	4	62%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.04	0.09	-0.01	13	38%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Langston Galloway	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Bullock	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	13	52%	0.04	2	-0.08	5	100%	0.03
Zaza Pachulia	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	7	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Andre Drummond	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	13	38%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach LaVine	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.32	0.32	0.12	0.21	0.01	21	65%	0.48	3	-0.16	9	78%	0.01
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.3	0.30	0.19	0.12	0.01	8	90%	0.30	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Antonio Blakeney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	6	83%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.02	0.08	-0.02	13	46%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Cameron Payne	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.04	0.04	12	59%	0.09	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.05
Ryan Arcidiacono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.04	0.00	3	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wendell Carter Jr.	0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	67%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	6	54%	0.05	3	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.09,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.16	-0.06	-0.03	12	21%	-0.13	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	1.6	32.4	15.2	23.6	2.5	34.3	136.9
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +20.1%

CHI -17.8%

DET +31.9%

DET +11.1%

DET +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CHI	NBA	DET	CHI	NBA
this game	15.5	13.3	14.3	116.8	117.2	109.3
season	15.3	14.6		107.5	104.2
opponent	14.3	14.0		112.4	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	12.6	15.3	16.7	18.0	15.5
CHI	13.6	12.4	13.3	13.9	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ish Smith	57	55	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.42	13	-11	24	15.2	15.9	-0.68	14.4	11.9	2.45
Blake Griffin	72	72	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.26	17	-15	32	15.5	15.4	0.08	13.2	13.4	-0.13
Reggie Bullock	66	66	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.26	2	0	2	14.9	16.7	-1.76	12.5	14.7	-2.18
Reggie Jackson	62	61	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.19	4	-2	6	16.1	14.6	1.53	11.9	15.5	-3.57
Andre Drummond	46	49	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.28	0	2	-2	15.8	15.3	0.47	13.7	12.9	0.83
Langston Galloway	53	50	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.21	-3	5	-8	16.1	14.9	1.16	13.8	12.8	0.98
Zaza Pachulia	51	47	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.01	2	0	2	15.2	15.8	-0.54	13.4	13.2	0.17
Jose Calderon	8	8	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	1	0	15.5	15.5	-0.01	15.0	13.1	1.88
Glenn Robinson III	27	25	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.17	-5	7	-12	14.4	15.9	-1.50	15.2	12.6	2.52
Stanley Johnson	63	62	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.40	-21	23	-44	15.8	14.9	0.89	12.7	14.2	-1.55

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justin Holiday	79	80	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.34	10	-12	22	12.9	14.6	-1.73	14.8	18.0	-3.15
Bobby Portis	61	61	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.31	9	-11	20	12.6	14.4	-1.82	16.0	14.7	1.25
Wendell Carter Jr.	37	37	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.02	-3	1	-4	13.2	13.3	-0.05	15.9	15.3	0.61
Antonio Blakeney	42	44	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.20	0	-2	2	14.1	12.7	1.39	16.5	14.7	1.80
Ryan Arcidiacono	41	42	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	2	-6	14.5	12.4	2.12	14.4	16.3	-1.88
Robin Lopez	52	53	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.13	-3	1	-4	14.0	12.4	1.57	14.8	16.2	-1.42
Cameron Payne	58	59	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.34	2	-4	6	12.4	14.5	-2.12	16.3	14.4	1.88
Jabari Parker	48	51	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.42	-7	5	-12	13.4	13.2	0.20	15.3	15.7	-0.35
Zach LaVine	77	78	-0.75	0.25	-1.01	-0.34	-14	12	-26	13.2	13.5	-0.35	15.6	15.2	0.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.62,0.43,0.24,0.28,0.26,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.36,0.09,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 102, PHI 97	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.26,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.22,0.06,0.04,0	91.9%
NOP 95, MEM 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.25,0.31,0.34,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.56,0.38,0.47,0.37,0.21,0.06,0.13,0.23,0.22,0.06,0.15,0	91.9%
LAL 102, BKN 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.54,0.55,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.38,0.24,0.19,0.14,0.08,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.22,0.05,0	91.7%