NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	115		Excitement	9.4 [110]		MVP	Dewayne Dedmon (ATL): +44.9%
Atlanta Hawks	118		Comeback	4.6 [207]		LVP	Taurean Prince (ATL): -23.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Ennis III	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.13	0.13	0.00	7	78%	0.25	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15	0.08	0.07	-0.00	7	67%	0.15	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Andre Drummond	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12	0.11	0.03	0.02	14	61%	0.15	1	-0.03	13	69%	-0.01
Stanley Johnson	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	4	80%	0.14	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Reggie Bullock	0.00	0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0	0.06	-0.05	0.02	13	67%	0.07	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Luke Kennard	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Eric Moreland	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Blake Griffin	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.12,-0.05,-0.11,-0.19,-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	0.06	21	48%	0.02	2	-0.09	6	100%	0.07
Jameer Nelson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	7	43%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.13	0.03	-0.01	4	25%	0.04	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.32,0.45	0.45	0.13	0.31	-0.00	9	83%	0.52	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.04
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.16	0.09	0.01	9	76%	0.24	0	0.00	7	100%	0.05
Isaiah Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	0.00	3	117%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.09	0.00	7	56%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Malcolm Delaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.05	0.00	7	59%	0.11	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Tyler Dorsey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	9	56%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	6	67%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,0.11,0.05,0.05,-0.05,0	0.00	0.05	-0.02	0.03	13	61%	0.08	3	-0.08	12	75%	0.02
Kent Bazemore	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.07	-0.06	0.08	8	43%	-0.12	3	-0.09	7	100%	-0.04
Taurean Prince	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.14	-0.09	0.01	7	14%	-0.12	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	2.4	32.6	15.3	32.3	1.8	40.1	151.0
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +21.3%

ATL +12.0%

ATL +7.8%

ATL +4.2%

ATL +4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ATL	NBA	DET	ATL	NBA
this game	14.1	14.7	14.7	116.2	116.8	107.5
season	14.9	14.6		106.4	104.2
opponent	14.4	14.7		109.8	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.6	14.2	14.1	13.7	14.1
ATL	14.2	14.6	15.9	14.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Kennard	40	38	0.43	-0.93	1.36	0.14	10	-13	23	14.0	14.2	-0.14	15.8	14.0	1.89
Anthony Tolliver	46	46	0.38	-0.88	1.25	0.05	11	-14	25	12.8	15.2	-2.40	15.7	13.8	1.86
Jameer Nelson	36	40	0.15	-0.65	0.81	-0.14	10	-13	23	12.8	14.9	-2.13	15.9	13.9	2.01
Eric Moreland	7	8	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.02	4	-7	11	12.4	14.3	-1.83	15.7	14.6	1.18
Stanley Johnson	42	42	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.11	-12	9	-21	14.5	13.9	0.64	14.5	14.8	-0.36
Andre Drummond	79	79	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.40	0	-3	3	14.2	13.9	0.23	13.9	17.5	-3.57
James Ennis III	46	46	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.38	-5	2	-7	13.9	14.3	-0.45	15.5	13.9	1.62
Ish Smith	61	61	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.28	-9	6	-15	15.3	12.3	2.99	13.9	15.9	-2.01
Reggie Bullock	71	74	-0.75	0.25	-0.99	-0.63	-4	1	-5	13.9	14.6	-0.66	14.0	16.4	-2.38
Blake Griffin	67	71	-1.09	0.59	-1.68	-0.50	-20	17	-37	15.0	12.3	2.69	14.3	15.4	-1.10

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ersan Ilyasova	58	57	1.08	-0.58	1.66	0.49	20	-17	37	13.9	15.7	-1.76	15.5	12.2	3.29
Kent Bazemore	58	56	0.95	-0.45	1.41	0.46	17	-14	31	14.0	15.5	-1.48	14.9	13.1	1.88
Tyler Dorsey	54	54	0.91	-0.41	1.31	0.55	12	-9	21	15.2	14.1	1.12	14.3	13.9	0.36
Dennis Schroder	72	71	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.56	9	-6	15	14.0	16.4	-2.41	14.6	12.9	1.68
Dewayne Dedmon	68	66	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.38	5	-2	7	13.8	16.5	-2.75	14.5	13.5	0.97
John Collins	36	36	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	7	-11	16.5	13.6	2.85	13.2	14.7	-1.52
Taurean Prince	47	46	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	-0.10	-8	11	-19	14.2	15.0	-0.80	13.5	14.7	-1.22
Isaiah Taylor	22	21	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.18	-6	9	-15	16.5	14.2	2.29	13.7	14.3	-0.59
Malcolm Delaney	50	49	-0.50	1.00	-1.51	-0.06	-15	18	-33	15.4	13.9	1.54	13.1	15.1	-1.96
Mike Muscala	40	39	-0.52	1.02	-1.54	-0.08	-15	18	-33	15.6	14.0	1.59	12.4	15.2	-2.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.63,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.65,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.75,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.33,0.23,0.31,0.19,0.27,0.38,0.21,0.32,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 88, DEN 91	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.39,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.57,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.43,0.29,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.19,0.36,0.45,0.84,1	92.0%
CHI 94, CHH 100	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.62,0.54,0.53,0.63,0.59,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.52,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.3,0.24,0.28,0.38,0.22,0.24,0.91,1	90.8%
GSW 83, HOU 85	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.59,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.68,0.63,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.43,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.37,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.28,0.39,0.28,0.22,0.73,1	90.6%