NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	115		Excitement	3.3 [1150]		MVP	Tomas Satoransky (WAS): +14.7%
Orlando Magic	98		Comeback	1.2 [949]		LVP	Elfrid Payton (ORL): -9.6%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tomas Satoransky	0.15	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.17	0.01	0.03	9	95%	0.16	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Markieff Morris	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	10	73%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tim Frazier	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	7	64%	0.06	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Otto Porter Jr.	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.03	15	59%	0.04	2	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Bradley Beal	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	15	56%	0.09	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Chris McCullough	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	75%	0.00	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.06	10	27%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	7	71%	0.04	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jodie Meeks	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.03	5	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonathon Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	-0.02	-0.02	9	68%	0.09	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.02	5	62%	0.05	2	-0.03	6	83%	-0.00
Wes Iwundu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Shelvin Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	9	61%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	12	39%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	9	50%	0.00	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	2	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Khem Birch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mario Hezonja	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	10	62%	0.01	5	-0.06	4	100%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	0.04	15	47%	-0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.0	27.2	15.6	29.3	2.3	29.4	129.1
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +31.6%

WAS +0.1%

WAS +5.9%

WAS +9.4%

WAS +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	ORL	NBA	WAS	ORL	NBA
this game	15.2	14.8	14.7	119.8	102.1	107.5
season	14.8	14.6		108.2	104.2
opponent	14.5	14.7		109.1	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.6	14.5	14.4	17.2	15.2
ORL	15.4	14.8	16.2	12.6	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tomas Satoransky	50	51	0.61	-0.11	0.72	-0.10	24	-7	31	14.0	16.6	-2.63	15.3	14.2	1.18
Otto Porter Jr.	64	65	0.60	-0.10	0.70	-0.28	30	-13	43	15.2	15.2	0.09	15.1	14.1	1.06
Marcin Gortat	50	50	0.59	-0.09	0.69	-0.11	24	-7	31	14.7	15.8	-1.17	15.4	14.1	1.25
Markieff Morris	59	60	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.13	23	-6	29	14.6	16.2	-1.62	15.1	14.3	0.81
Bradley Beal	61	63	0.54	-0.04	0.59	-0.07	21	-4	25	14.5	16.5	-1.99	15.1	14.2	0.87
Chris McCullough	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	20	-23	23.2	14.8	8.42	8.8	15.1	-6.31
Tim Frazier	39	38	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.07	-3	20	-23	16.4	14.4	1.92	14.7	14.8	-0.16
Ian Mahinmi	36	36	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	19	-21	15.1	15.3	-0.13	15.5	14.3	1.19
Jodie Meeks	33	31	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.07	-4	21	-25	16.1	14.7	1.38	13.5	15.4	-1.82
Jason Smith	31	29	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.19	-11	28	-39	15.5	15.1	0.44	13.4	15.4	-1.96
Kelly Oubre Jr.	52	52	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.24	-14	31	-45	16.2	14.1	2.08	14.2	15.5	-1.37

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Khem Birch	55	56	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.27	13	-30	43	14.3	15.4	-1.15	15.4	14.9	0.46
D.J. Augustin	49	50	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.05	-2	-15	13	15.1	14.4	0.70	15.0	15.5	-0.50
Shelvin Mack	44	44	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.14	4	-21	25	14.4	15.1	-0.65	15.2	15.2	0.06
Mario Hezonja	59	57	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.15	0	-17	17	15.4	13.8	1.62	15.6	14.6	0.97
Wes Iwundu	43	43	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.08	-3	-14	11	14.1	15.3	-1.20	14.6	15.7	-1.07
Marreese Speights	35	37	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	-5	-7	13.2	15.7	-2.53	15.1	15.3	-0.14
Bismack Biyombo	36	35	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.09	-16	-1	-15	16.4	13.8	2.53	15.5	15.0	0.51
Jonathon Simmons	52	52	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.11	-20	3	-23	14.7	14.8	-0.11	15.1	15.4	-0.27
Elfrid Payton	48	49	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	0.13	-22	5	-27	14.7	14.9	-0.23	15.3	15.2	0.10
Evan Fournier	59	57	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	0.22	-27	10	-37	15.2	14.1	1.10	15.2	15.3	-0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.41,0.39,0.25,0.21,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 123, TOR 86	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.42,0.37,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.3,0.2,0.21,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
BKN 122, MIN 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.43,0.3,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
IND 99, BOS 81	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.32,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.52,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.25,0.21,0.18,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%