NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	102		Excitement	6.1 [640]		MVP	Terry Rozier (BOS): +16.4%
Charlotte Hornets	91		Comeback	1.0 [834]		LVP	Dwight Howard (CHA): -12.1%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Rozier	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.06	0.08	-0.02	10	68%	0.19	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jayson Tatum	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.01	12	60%	0.17	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Al Horford	0.08	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.13	0.02	0.06	11	91%	0.16	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Shane Larkin	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.00	6	92%	0.13	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	19	52%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Guerschon Yabusele	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Theis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	50%	0.00	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Aron Baynes	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	41%	0.01	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Marcus Smart	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	9	28%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	9	57%	0.08	1	-0.00	5	60%	-0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	10	59%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jeremy Lamb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	5	67%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Johnny O'Bryant III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kemba Walker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	22	52%	0.04	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.01	0.01	9	39%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Frank Kaminsky	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	9	37%	-0.06	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Treveon Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	5	8%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Carter-Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	5	0%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	10	40%	-0.05	3	-0.07	10	60%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.8	25.0	0.3	30.3	1.8	23.3	106.9
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +70.4%

CHA -4.2%

CHA -8.8%

CHA -10.2%

BOS +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	CHA	NBA	BOS	CHA	NBA
this game	15.4	14.9	14.7	106.2	96.8	107.5
season	15.1	14.6		106.4	108.7
opponent	14.5	14.7		108.5	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.0	13.6	16.8	17.3	15.4
CHA	15.5	15.7	12.0	17.0	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	71	69	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.10	15	-4	19	15.7	14.4	1.36	15.2	14.2	1.07
Shane Larkin	46	42	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.12	14	-3	17	15.2	15.5	-0.37	17.1	13.2	3.97
Jayson Tatum	70	67	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.12	10	1	9	15.6	14.7	0.97	15.1	14.5	0.65
Terry Rozier	52	52	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.16	7	4	3	15.1	15.6	-0.50	15.4	14.3	1.11
Marcus Smart	70	69	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.17	4	7	-3	15.6	14.6	1.03	14.3	16.7	-2.36
Daniel Theis	34	33	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.08	6	5	1	14.1	16.1	-1.98	16.2	14.3	1.86
Kyrie Irving	64	64	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.06	4	7	-3	15.6	15.0	0.59	13.9	17.1	-3.16
Aron Baynes	52	53	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.06	-2	13	-15	15.5	15.2	0.34	14.1	16.1	-2.04
Guerschon Yabusele	21	21	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.03	-3	14	-17	14.4	15.6	-1.20	13.3	15.4	-2.14

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johnny O'Bryant III	15	15	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.06	-7	-4	-3	18.7	14.2	4.43	12.5	15.9	-3.43
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	51	52	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.06	-4	-7	3	13.9	16.2	-2.28	15.8	14.8	1.01
Treveon Graham	27	27	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.01	-6	-5	-1	17.6	13.9	3.76	14.8	15.6	-0.82
Dwight Howard	74	75	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.11	-3	-8	5	13.7	19.6	-5.97	15.6	14.6	1.02
Michael Carter-Williams	23	23	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.00	-7	-4	-3	18.2	13.9	4.33	14.3	15.7	-1.45
Marvin Williams	67	67	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.21	-2	-9	7	14.4	16.3	-1.95	15.8	14.3	1.51
Kemba Walker	71	73	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.18	-4	-7	3	13.9	18.2	-4.33	15.7	14.3	1.45
Nicolas Batum	68	70	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.17	-5	-6	1	13.8	18.0	-4.17	15.7	14.5	1.19
Jeremy Lamb	42	43	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.12	-7	-4	-3	16.4	13.8	2.55	14.7	15.9	-1.29
Frank Kaminsky	32	35	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.09	-10	-1	-9	17.3	13.7	3.59	15.3	15.4	-0.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.26,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.17,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.25,0.31,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.46,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 92, IND 82	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.36,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.28,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.22,0.2,0.14,0.12,0.26,0.2,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.3%
ATL 100, CLE 88	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.28,0.44,0.29,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.3,0.2,0.32,0.13,0.29,0.17,0.15,0.07,0.01,0,0	92.7%
ORL 86, CLE 82	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.38,0.33,0.38,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.08,0.01,0.03,0.03,0	92.6%