NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	112		Excitement	7.3 [401]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +35.0%
Denver Nuggets	104		Comeback	11.6 [94]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -12.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karl-Anthony Towns	0.34	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.18	0.14	-0.02	16	76%	0.34	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jimmy Butler	0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.08,0.04,0,0.16,0.19	0.09	0.16	0.05	15	66%	0.26	3	-0.07	8	100%	0.06
Jamal Crawford	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.06	0.04	14	67%	0.21	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Taj Gibson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.02	9	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gorgui Dieng	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tyus Jones	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Georges-Hunt	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	13	52%	0.01	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Andrew Wiggins	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	12	28%	-0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.22,0.27,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.21	0.15	0.01	17	75%	0.37	2	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.04	-0.03	10	54%	0.08	3	-0.05	4	25%	-0.06
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.10	-0.04	0.05	9	71%	0.06	1	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	37%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.05	0.01	4	100%	0.10	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	7	36%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	9	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	12	67%	0.15	10	-0.28	9	89%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	0.6	24.4	14.8	26.2	2.5	27.5	121.3
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +8.9%

MIN +0.5%

MIN +4.9%

MIN +34.8%

MIN +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DEN	NBA	MIN	DEN	NBA
this game	15.1	14.9	14.7	116.7	108.3	107.5
season	15.3	14.7		111.8	111.2
opponent	14.7	14.4		109.9	110.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.7	14.2	14.5	17.0	15.1
DEN	14.1	15.8	14.3	15.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Crawford	51	53	1.03	-0.53	1.57	0.24	27	-19	46	15.5	14.6	0.89	16.7	12.7	3.95
Gorgui Dieng	40	40	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.14	13	-5	18	14.4	15.6	-1.20	16.9	13.5	3.34
Karl-Anthony Towns	73	74	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.33	0	8	-8	15.8	12.7	3.13	14.9	15.1	-0.27
Tyus Jones	28	28	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.04	10	-2	12	15.5	14.9	0.55	18.4	13.5	4.84
Jimmy Butler	71	70	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.33	-5	13	-18	15.5	14.0	1.45	14.1	17.2	-3.05
Jeff Teague	68	68	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.23	-2	10	-12	14.9	15.5	-0.55	13.5	18.4	-4.84
Marcus Georges-Hunt	10	10	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.02	2	6	-4	16.0	15.0	1.03	19.7	14.4	5.33
Andrew Wiggins	74	74	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	5	-2	14.1	18.2	-4.09	14.1	17.8	-3.75
Taj Gibson	65	63	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.09	-8	16	-24	14.8	15.5	-0.70	13.4	17.8	-4.31

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mason Plumlee	55	54	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.21	12	-20	32	15.2	14.6	0.55	15.8	14.2	1.57
Malik Beasley	11	12	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.05	-2	-6	4	17.9	14.5	3.37	13.4	15.3	-1.89
Nikola Jokic	74	75	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.21	-1	-7	6	14.4	16.8	-2.45	15.1	15.1	-0.09
Wilson Chandler	78	77	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	-5	2	14.0	18.8	-4.81	14.8	16.2	-1.35
Jamal Murray	77	75	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.29	-1	-7	6	14.3	17.3	-2.98	15.4	13.9	1.56
Torrey Craig	70	69	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.38	1	-9	10	15.4	13.6	1.80	16.3	12.0	4.33
Trey Lyles	49	51	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.07	-18	10	-28	15.6	14.2	1.36	13.5	16.8	-3.33
Will Barton	66	67	-1.04	0.54	-1.57	-0.22	-28	20	-48	15.6	13.4	2.17	14.7	15.9	-1.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.71,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.87,0.78,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.19,0.29,0.32,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 107, PHX 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.46,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.55,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.75,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.77,0.74,0.59,0.39,0.31,0.11,0.04,0.08,0	91.0%
IND 96, ATL 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.62,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.73,0.61,0.56,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.73,0.64,0.4,0.38,0.19,0.28,0.33,0.02,0	90.8%
NYK 79, LAL 78	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.59,0.63,0.47,0.46,0.28,0.2,0.23,0.07,0.08,0	90.7%