NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	109		Excitement	9.4 [108]		MVP	James Harden (HOU): +23.4%
Denver Nuggets	105		Comeback	2.6 [570]		LVP	Will Barton (DEN): -27.9%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.03,0,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.02,0.06,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.09,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.23	0.09	0.13	-0.01	23	63%	0.52	8	-0.28	17	88%	0.06
Eric Gordon	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.05	-0.03	7	62%	0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Clint Capela	0.10	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.05	0.01	13	57%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Ryan Anderson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	7	59%	0.08	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Nene	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.03	0.00	12	50%	0.06	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.07
Sam Dekker	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lou Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	9	52%	0.05	2	-0.08	5	80%	-0.00
Trevor Ariza	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	-0.12	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	0.00	7	19%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Juan Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.01	0.01	9	71%	0.11	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Nikola Jokic	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.05,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.08	-0.01	14	55%	0.17	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.00	7	69%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Gary Harris	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	14	52%	0.07	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.02
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	14	50%	0.10	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.03
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	5	64%	0.04	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	13	40%	-0.02	3	-0.11	4	50%	-0.08
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.28	-0.28	-0.11	-0.17	-0.00	13	29%	-0.26	1	-0.02	9	56%	-0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.4	30.2	14.7	28.3	1.8	36.1	136.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +38.4%

HOU +15.0%

HOU +3.7%

DEN -7.1%

DEN -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DEN	NBA	HOU	DEN	NBA
this game	13.4	14.7	14.8	105.8	102.9	107.7
season	13.7	14.4		113.2	111.6
opponent	14.5	14.9		111.2	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.0	13.1	13.9	12.8	13.4
DEN	14.2	15.7	14.3	14.4	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	79	78	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.29	10	-6	16	13.6	13.0	0.58	14.4	15.4	-0.94
Trevor Ariza	72	72	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.27	8	-4	12	13.8	12.5	1.28	14.5	14.9	-0.39
Eric Gordon	73	72	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.47	-2	6	-8	12.5	15.6	-3.09	14.7	14.5	0.27
Nene	50	50	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.37	1	3	-2	12.8	14.1	-1.26	15.3	14.0	1.34
Ryan Anderson	57	56	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.07	8	-4	12	13.5	13.4	0.02	15.3	13.9	1.35
Lou Williams	52	52	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.27	-3	7	-10	12.2	14.7	-2.49	14.2	15.1	-0.87
Clint Capela	53	52	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.02	3	1	2	14.1	12.8	1.26	14.0	15.3	-1.34
Patrick Beverley	62	62	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.11	-1	5	-6	14.8	11.3	3.50	15.0	14.1	0.88
Sam Dekker	17	16	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	8	-12	13.7	13.4	0.31	13.8	14.8	-1.00

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mason Plumlee	66	67	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.06	-7	3	-10	14.9	14.1	0.80	13.3	13.8	-0.55
Kenneth Faried	50	48	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	0	-4	15.0	14.3	0.75	12.9	14.0	-1.11
Nikola Jokic	46	48	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.41	6	-10	16	13.6	15.5	-1.95	15.0	12.1	2.83
Will Barton	72	72	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.37	1	-5	6	14.9	14.0	0.98	12.8	14.9	-2.04
Jamal Murray	52	52	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.30	-3	-1	-2	14.3	15.1	-0.79	12.2	14.7	-2.49
Jameer Nelson	83	83	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.31	-3	-1	-2	14.6	15.0	-0.42	14.0	11.2	2.79
Gary Harris	81	84	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.41	0	-4	4	14.6	14.8	-0.13	13.9	11.6	2.23
Juan Hernangomez	60	61	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.15	-10	6	-16	15.0	14.2	0.79	13.4	13.5	-0.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.5,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.31,0.41,0.37,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.34,0.15,0.28,0.06,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 83, CHI 81	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.17,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.27,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.16,0	93.1%
LAL 101, CLE 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.78,0.74,0.66,0.61,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.37,0.44,0.36,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.2,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.02,0,0	92.9%
GSW 102, PHI 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.67,0.62,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.26,0.18,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.36,0.24,0.22,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.27,0	92.6%