NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	92		Excitement	3.1 [1179]		MVP	Wayne Ellington (MIA): +12.3%
Miami Heat	120		Comeback	1.9 [650]		LVP	DeAndre Liggins (CLE): -8.5%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Jefferson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.03	-0.03	8	65%	0.09	2	-0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Kyle Korver	0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	-0.01	0.00	12	62%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Iman Shumpert	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	7	56%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
James Jones	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	62%	0.01	3	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Tristan Thompson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.02	-0.04	9	45%	0.03	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.00
Deron Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	11	42%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Channing Frye	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.15	-0.00	0.18	12	84%	-0.01	2	-0.02	1	0%	0.00
DeAndre Liggins	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	6	29%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.00	-0.06	9	67%	0.12	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	0.00	4	112%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.01	0.00	14	67%	0.10	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.17	0.01	0.09	12	88%	0.12	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.12	-0.00	0.08	11	71%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	9	44%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.01	5	73%	0.06	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.05	0.00	0.05	4	64%	0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Willie Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	5	20%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Okaro White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	5	50%	-0.01	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	0.03	10	40%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.5	27.4	16.8	28.8	1.8	24.2	125.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +30.1%

MIA +1.1%

MIA +6.4%

MIA +11.0%

MIA +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	MIA	NBA	CLE	MIA	NBA
this game	15.5	16.7	14.8	103.4	133.3	107.7
season	14.9	15.4		113.5	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.7		105.9	109.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	13.8	16.2	16.6	15.5	15.5
MIA	15.5	14.4	17.7	19.5	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	48	48	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.23	-6	-22	16	16.0	14.9	1.14	18.0	15.2	2.79
Channing Frye	39	41	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.12	-12	-16	4	15.4	15.5	-0.10	17.9	15.6	2.29
Deron Williams	50	48	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.18	-14	-14	0	16.8	13.8	3.07	16.2	17.3	-1.10
DeAndre Liggins	53	56	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.03	-11	-17	6	15.0	16.2	-1.18	16.9	16.4	0.47
Derrick Williams	53	55	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.08	-13	-15	2	14.8	16.6	-1.83	17.0	16.2	0.83
Tristan Thompson	52	52	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.18	-17	-11	-6	15.3	15.7	-0.40	16.3	17.2	-0.97
Kyle Korver	51	50	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.27	-21	-7	-14	16.4	14.3	2.01	15.5	18.2	-2.74
Richard Jefferson	45	47	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.18	-18	-10	-8	14.8	16.2	-1.36	16.9	16.5	0.41
Iman Shumpert	54	53	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.34	-28	0	-28	14.9	16.4	-1.45	15.8	17.9	-2.02

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Johnson	50	50	0.50	0.00	0.49	-0.21	24	4	20	16.2	17.2	-1.03	14.7	16.5	-1.77
James Johnson	37	37	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.30	23	5	18	14.4	18.2	-3.81	14.6	16.1	-1.54
Hassan Whiteside	51	52	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.22	19	9	10	16.7	16.7	-0.03	15.7	15.2	0.43
Goran Dragic	45	46	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.19	18	10	8	16.4	16.9	-0.47	15.6	15.3	0.28
Josh Richardson	49	47	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.13	12	16	-4	16.8	16.5	0.35	14.6	16.5	-1.81
Wayne Ellington	46	45	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.07	10	18	-8	16.9	16.5	0.44	15.2	15.8	-0.64
Dion Waiters	42	42	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.08	10	18	-8	16.5	16.8	-0.33	17.2	13.9	3.30
Okaro White	47	44	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.04	7	21	-14	17.2	16.1	1.08	15.5	15.5	-0.03
Luke Babbitt	24	25	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.03	5	23	-18	16.7	16.7	-0.02	16.5	15.1	1.37
Rodney McGruder	38	37	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.27	10	18	-8	17.3	16.2	1.06	15.9	15.2	0.63
Willie Reed	21	20	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.06	2	26	-24	19.5	15.8	3.71	15.5	15.5	0.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.35,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.72,0.84,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 75, CHI 107	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.5%
UTA 54, CHI 96	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.79,0.84,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
PHX 83, GSW 129	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.82,0.78,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%