NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	107		Excitement	7.5 [361]		MVP	Tyler Johnson (MIA): +44.6%
Sacramento Kings	102		Comeback	1.8 [264]		LVP	Darren Collison (SAC): -21.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Johnson	0.45	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.45	0.13	0.32	0.01	11	74%	0.52	2	-0.07	9	78%	0.02
Wayne Ellington	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.01	-0.01	8	76%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Willie Reed	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.03	-0.03	6	50%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.03	0.01	4	112%	0.09	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	8	70%	0.18	3	-0.16	4	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	3	70%	0.05	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Rodney McGruder	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dion Waiters	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	4	50%	0.00	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.07	-0.09	0.01	11	41%	-0.05	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,-0.01,-0.18	0.03	-0.20	0.01	12	58%	0.04	2	-0.22	9	100%	0.05

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Garrett Temple	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.06	0.01	11	65%	0.15	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.01	0.09	-0.01	9	67%	0.17	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.12	0.01	0.04	6	93%	0.11	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	2	100%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Willie Cauley-Stein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.07	-0.07	0.01	8	83%	0.11	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.05,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.01	11	68%	0.14	4	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Ben McLemore	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.18	-0.18	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	15	34%	-0.16	1	-0.03	8	62%	-0.09
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.22	-0.22	-0.03	-0.17	0.02	11	43%	-0.20	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.4	30.3	14.6	32.9	1.8	38.3	146.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +49.4%

MIA +14.2%

MIA +14.4%

SAC -32.4%

MIA +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAC	NBA	MIA	SAC	NBA
this game	14.8	15.3	14.8	109.2	108.5	107.7
season	15.4	15.4		106.7	106.0
opponent	14.6	14.5		110.0	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.5	15.7	13.7	16.3	14.8
SAC	16.6	16.3	14.6	13.7	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Goran Dragic	59	54	1.01	-0.51	1.51	0.36	22	-17	39	15.6	13.5	2.02	16.1	14.0	2.10
Josh Richardson	75	72	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.26	18	-13	31	15.3	13.1	2.12	15.3	15.1	0.21
James Johnson	49	50	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.27	10	-5	15	14.3	15.2	-0.98	16.1	14.3	1.76
Luke Babbitt	34	31	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.15	13	-8	21	16.6	13.8	2.76	16.0	14.9	1.11
Rodney McGruder	49	46	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.19	7	-2	9	14.9	14.6	0.29	15.7	14.9	0.78
Tyler Johnson	65	64	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.46	-13	18	-31	14.1	16.1	-2.06	14.1	17.7	-3.54
Willie Reed	46	44	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.13	7	-2	9	14.9	14.6	0.26	16.2	14.4	1.83
Udonis Haslem	41	39	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.17	-13	18	-31	14.4	15.0	-0.67	13.4	16.5	-3.11
Dion Waiters	22	21	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	0.09	-12	17	-29	13.4	15.1	-1.74	14.6	15.4	-0.82
Wayne Ellington	50	49	-0.48	0.98	-1.46	-0.07	-14	19	-33	13.9	15.7	-1.83	14.8	15.7	-0.87

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Tolliver	59	61	0.44	-0.94	1.37	-0.03	16	-21	37	14.8	15.9	-1.10	14.0	15.9	-1.87
Kosta Koufos	31	32	0.43	-0.93	1.37	0.08	12	-17	29	14.8	15.5	-0.72	14.6	14.8	-0.19
Willie Cauley-Stein	13	13	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.05	5	-10	15	16.8	15.0	1.85	14.9	14.7	0.19
Ty Lawson	59	61	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.39	12	-17	29	14.3	16.9	-2.69	14.9	14.6	0.26
Ben McLemore	10	11	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.09	-7	2	-9	18.9	14.8	4.08	16.3	14.6	1.71
Garrett Temple	63	65	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.39	5	-10	15	14.8	16.2	-1.40	14.5	15.3	-0.87
Arron Afflalo	63	64	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.13	-8	3	-11	15.0	15.7	-0.63	14.6	15.0	-0.42
Darren Collison	51	53	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	6	-17	15.7	14.7	1.07	14.7	14.8	-0.04
Matt Barnes	62	66	-1.06	0.56	-1.62	-0.41	-22	17	-39	15.8	14.2	1.62	15.3	13.7	1.54
DeMarcus Cousins	59	64	-1.13	0.63	-1.77	-0.34	-27	22	-49	15.7	14.6	1.09	15.0	14.2	0.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.32,0.34,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.34,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.21,0.15,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.08,0.26,0.38,0.47,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.4,0.33,0.19,0.22,0.16,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 89, UTA 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.29,0.16,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.17,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.28,0.24,0.15,0.23,0.15,0	91.7%
MIA 83, NYK 79	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.2,0.22,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.09,0.12,0.22,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.36,0.35,0.27,0.24,0.1,0.17,0.15,0	91.1%
POR 100, MIL 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.31,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.2,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.08,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.22,0.24,0.43,0	89.5%