NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	101		Excitement	7.1 [434]		MVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): +31.6%
Miami Heat	112		Comeback	2.4 [436]		LVP	Trey Burke (WAS): -8.3%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bradley Beal	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.15	-0.05	0.02	20	64%	0.13	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.02
Otto Porter	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	0.00	7	60%	0.11	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Jason Smith	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Oubre	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.00	5	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Markieff Morris	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	10	45%	0.08	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
John Wall	0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.07,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	26	52%	0.15	4	-0.14	6	83%	0.02
Marcin Gortat	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	5	58%	0.05	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Thornton	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Trey Burke	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	5	33%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.3,0.25,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.17	0.13	-0.01	23	68%	0.41	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.03
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.08	-0.01	9	64%	0.20	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.03
Wayne Ellington	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	11	44%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.00	7	71%	0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	5	70%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	14	50%	0.02	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	10	55%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Willie Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	8	44%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.3	29.9	15.8	26.6	2.5	36.4	138.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +49.0%

WAS -12.7%

MIA +12.0%

MIA +0.5%

MIA +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	13.0	16.4	14.8	104.1	113.1	107.7
season	14.4	15.4		109.9	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.9		105.9	108.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	12.3	12.6	13.0	14.2	13.0
MIA	18.2	16.8	14.7	15.8	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Thornton	25	27	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.16	6	-17	23	15.0	12.3	2.69	15.3	16.7	-1.40
Jason Smith	20	21	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.08	0	-11	11	14.7	12.5	2.20	16.0	16.4	-0.45
Marcin Gortat	66	65	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.09	-10	-1	-9	12.1	14.9	-2.84	16.9	15.4	1.48
Trey Burke	26	28	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.23	0	-11	11	15.8	12.0	3.78	15.7	16.6	-0.84
Markieff Morris	76	77	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.12	-6	-5	-1	12.2	16.0	-3.83	17.2	13.5	3.67
Otto Porter	76	77	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.10	-8	-3	-5	12.7	14.1	-1.46	16.4	16.3	0.05
Kelly Oubre	47	50	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.22	-6	-5	-1	15.1	11.1	4.00	14.7	18.0	-3.30
John Wall	77	78	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.04	-14	3	-17	12.3	15.8	-3.59	16.5	15.9	0.57
Bradley Beal	72	72	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.01	-17	6	-23	12.3	15.0	-2.69	16.7	15.3	1.40

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Goran Dragic	62	62	0.89	-0.39	1.29	0.13	26	-15	41	16.7	15.7	1.04	12.9	13.3	-0.40
Wayne Ellington	70	69	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.11	13	-2	15	16.0	17.2	-1.16	12.3	14.6	-2.26
Rodney McGruder	64	61	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.32	5	6	-1	16.7	15.7	0.94	13.2	12.6	0.57
James Johnson	62	61	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.11	7	4	3	15.2	18.3	-3.15	14.3	10.9	3.40
Hassan Whiteside	69	69	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.13	15	-4	19	17.3	14.3	2.99	12.1	15.2	-3.11
Josh McRoberts	37	36	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.07	4	7	-3	18.3	15.2	3.15	10.9	14.3	-3.40
Tyler Johnson	61	58	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.21	-3	14	-17	15.9	17.1	-1.13	14.3	11.1	3.22
Josh Richardson	60	59	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.02	-2	13	-15	15.6	17.6	-2.00	13.3	12.5	0.78
Willie Reed	10	10	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	0.08	-10	21	-31	15.3	16.5	-1.17	14.0	12.9	1.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.67,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.71,0.62,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.57,0.52,0.67,0.77,0.69,0.81,0.91,0.86,0.93,0.95,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 104, NOP 112	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.62,0.55,0.44,0.33,0.36,0.54,0.57,0.66,0.8,0.77,0.86,0.78,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.99,1	91.9%
DAL 81, NJN 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.76,0.88,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	91.9%
IND 101, CHA 108	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.65,0.56,0.44,0.29,0.29,0.42,0.57,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.9,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.99,1	91.6%