NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	105		Excitement	9.2 [136]		MVP	Bradley Beal (WAS): +47.4%
San Antonio Spurs	107		Comeback	2.8 [601]		LVP	Patty Mills (SAS): -17.1%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bradley Beal	0.47	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.47	0.18	0.31	0.01	11	85%	0.51	2	-0.04	5	80%	-0.03
Marcin Gortat	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.10	0.01	16	55%	0.18	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.02
John Wall	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.11	-0.01	0.11	-0.01	16	53%	0.22	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Otto Porter	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.2,0.1	0.03	0.06	-0.01	10	68%	0.17	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.06
Markieff Morris	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	7	67%	0.13	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.04
Trey Burke	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Thornton	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	7	33%	-0.02	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Kelly Oubre	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.05,0.3	0.30	0.08	0.23	0.01	18	59%	0.40	1	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.28	0.28	-0.07	0.35	-0.01	4	37%	0.35	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.02	0.17	-0.00	6	50%	0.21	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.11	0.01	6	81%	0.22	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	14	56%	0.11	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.01
Jonathon Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0	83%	0.05	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	16	47%	0.05	1	-0.04	8	25%	-0.07
Nicolas Laprovittola	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	58%	0.04	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.14,0.14,-0.02,-0.17	-0.17	0.02	-0.19	0.00	9	56%	-0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.4	26.9	14.8	28.0	0.2	39.9	139.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +22.7%

WAS -15.8%

SAS +18.8%

SAS +15.6%

SAS +8.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	SAS	NBA	WAS	SAS	NBA
this game	13.9	15.2	14.8	105.0	109.2	107.7
season	14.4	15.4		109.9	110.1
opponent	14.8	14.9		103.7	108.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.0	14.5	13.7	12.5	13.9
SAS	13.8	14.9	14.5	17.5	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Markieff Morris	76	77	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.22	10	-12	22	14.2	12.9	1.33	15.9	12.3	3.61
Otto Porter	75	74	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.39	12	-14	26	13.7	14.6	-0.89	15.7	13.6	2.05
Bradley Beal	61	61	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.39	11	-13	24	14.1	13.7	0.43	15.8	14.1	1.71
John Wall	78	76	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.36	7	-9	16	13.6	15.3	-1.72	15.6	13.6	2.04
Jason Smith	31	29	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.06	-7	5	-12	13.8	14.0	-0.23	13.1	16.0	-2.89
Trey Burke	22	22	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.08	-9	7	-16	15.3	13.6	1.72	13.6	15.6	-2.04
Marcus Thornton	39	37	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.05	-13	11	-24	13.7	14.1	-0.43	14.1	15.8	-1.71
Marcin Gortat	89	87	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.40	-5	3	-8	13.8	15.2	-1.41	15.2	15.2	-0.01
Kelly Oubre	29	27	-0.72	0.22	-0.95	-0.26	-16	14	-30	14.3	13.8	0.54	13.8	15.7	-1.93

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	52	54	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.35	16	-14	30	14.2	16.3	-2.13	13.4	14.5	-1.10
Patty Mills	58	60	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.21	11	-9	20	14.6	16.0	-1.35	13.4	14.6	-1.20
Jonathon Simmons	30	31	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.27	6	-4	10	14.0	15.7	-1.64	14.5	13.7	0.80
Dewayne Dedmon	18	19	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.04	12	-10	22	11.9	15.9	-3.96	13.0	14.1	-1.15
Danny Green	48	49	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.61	-11	13	-24	15.7	14.6	1.09	13.9	13.9	-0.02
Kawhi Leonard	69	70	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.30	-4	6	-10	15.4	14.5	0.93	13.5	15.0	-1.48
David Lee	37	37	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.11	8	-6	14	14.2	15.8	-1.58	13.4	14.3	-0.88
LaMarcus Aldridge	74	75	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.40	-10	12	-22	16.1	12.4	3.71	13.8	14.3	-0.52
Nicolas Laprovittola	39	39	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.10	-9	11	-20	16.4	14.4	2.01	15.0	13.2	1.80
Pau Gasol	65	66	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.02	-9	11	-20	16.0	13.6	2.41	15.1	11.7	3.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.37,0.41,0.31,0.36,0.34,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.44,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.77,0.7,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.69,0.89,0.91,0.75,0.79,0.83,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 85, BOS 90	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.37,0.47,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.75,0.83,0.88,0.83,0.8,0.83,0.75,0.85,0.84,0.91,1	92.6%
SEA 106, PHX 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.81,0.9,0.85,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.89,0.78,0.85,1	91.5%
PHX 93, MIN 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.38,0.48,0.45,0.56,0.56,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.82,0.83,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.9,0.96,1,1,1	91.4%