NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	94		Excitement	8.0 [263]		MVP	Marc Gasol (MEM): +45.2%
Memphis Grizzlies	95		Comeback	107.7 [13]		LVP	Elfrid Payton (ORL): -52.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Evan Fournier	0.43	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.32,0.43,0.43,0.43	0.21	0.22	0.01	14	87%	0.48	3	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Nikola Vucevic	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.24,0.15	0.04	0.10	-0.01	15	51%	0.19	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.07
Jeff Green	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.06	0.01	8	67%	0.17	2	-0.08	5	80%	0.02
Aaron Gordon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
D.J. Augustin	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.03	-0.01	6	50%	0.05	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Serge Ibaka	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	10	46%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
CJ Watson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	3	22%	-0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Bismack Biyombo	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.02	0.01	4	30%	-0.02	5	-0.15	2	50%	-0.02
Elfrid Payton	-0.53	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.53	-0.15	-0.37	-0.00	8	17%	-0.11	3	-0.41	2	50%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marc Gasol	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.2,0.45	0.45	0.11	0.34	0.00	14	71%	0.53	3	-0.08	7	100%	0.16
Troy Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.17	0.05	0.02	9	83%	0.20	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
JaMychal Green	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.11	0.01	4	80%	0.17	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Andrew Harrison	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.06	0.01	8	50%	0.08	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.04
Wade Baldwin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Deyonta Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jarell Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	11	25%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Tony Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.05	-0.10	0.00	11	37%	-0.12	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.06
Troy Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.18	-0.07	-0.01	13	19%	-0.16	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.3	31.5	15.5	32.4	2.5	44.9	152.3
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -9.1%

MEM +4.5%

ORL -2.4%

MEM +51.8%

MEM +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MEM	NBA	ORL	MEM	NBA
this game	15.1	15.8	14.8	101.1	102.2	107.7
season	14.6	16.1		103.0	106.4
opponent	14.9	14.9		106.7	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.3	12.8	16.4	15.6	15.1
MEM	15.7	14.4	18.7	15.0	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gordon	40	41	0.34	-0.84	1.18	-0.01	12	-13	25	15.3	15.0	0.24	15.9	15.8	0.13
CJ Watson	24	23	0.23	-0.72	0.95	0.08	5	-6	11	14.9	15.2	-0.36	16.7	15.5	1.21
D.J. Augustin	37	36	0.09	-0.59	0.69	0.09	0	-1	1	16.5	14.2	2.24	14.6	16.6	-2.03
Bismack Biyombo	69	65	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.13	5	-6	11	14.9	15.8	-0.93	15.6	16.4	-0.76
Nikola Vucevic	57	60	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.18	-2	1	-3	14.9	15.6	-0.68	15.8	15.8	0.02
Elfrid Payton	56	57	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.57	-1	0	-1	14.2	16.5	-2.24	16.6	14.6	2.03
Evan Fournier	69	70	-0.72	0.23	-0.95	-0.55	-6	5	-11	15.2	14.9	0.36	15.5	16.7	-1.21
Serge Ibaka	60	61	-0.78	0.28	-1.05	-0.63	-5	4	-9	15.7	14.2	1.48	16.1	15.4	0.69
Jeff Green	53	52	-0.84	0.34	-1.18	-0.46	-13	12	-25	15.0	15.3	-0.24	15.8	15.9	-0.13

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Allen	54	55	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.48	11	-10	21	14.8	17.3	-2.50	15.5	14.6	0.90
Marc Gasol	65	65	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.54	8	-7	15	14.8	18.3	-3.57	15.0	15.4	-0.31
JaMychal Green	52	52	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.65	3	-2	5	15.2	16.6	-1.35	15.6	14.5	1.08
Andrew Harrison	60	60	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.57	5	-4	9	14.7	17.8	-3.04	14.9	15.5	-0.53
Jarell Martin	53	51	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.38	-6	7	-13	16.3	15.2	1.06	15.0	15.3	-0.22
Troy Daniels	55	57	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.04	6	-5	11	16.1	15.4	0.64	15.4	14.7	0.68
Deyonta Davis	26	26	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	-0.06	-4	5	-9	18.2	14.9	3.23	14.4	15.4	-1.05
Wade Baldwin	33	33	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	-0.10	-4	5	-9	17.8	14.7	3.04	15.5	14.9	0.53
Troy Williams	67	66	-0.48	0.98	-1.46	-0.07	-14	15	-29	16.7	13.6	3.12	14.7	16.2	-1.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.16,0.15,0.04,0.03,0.14,0.2,0.21,0.31,0.09,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 107, DAL 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.26,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.22,0.24,0.28,1	92.5%
MIL 86, CHA 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.07,0.15,0.15,1	91.5%
MEM 113, SAC 116	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.61,0.54,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.25,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.24,0.27,1	91.1%