NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	120		Excitement	11.1 [34]		MVP	CJ McCollum (POR): +54.7%
Portland Trail Blazers	122		Comeback	5.2 [404]		LVP	Ty Lawson (SAC): -8.0%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMarcus Cousins	0.27	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.02,-0.11,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.27,0.39,0.27	0.12	0.16	0.01	22	62%	0.45	3	-0.18	9	67%	-0.04
Darren Collison	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,-0.03,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.16	0.02	0.14	0.01	16	59%	0.29	3	-0.14	2	100%	0.09
Arron Afflalo	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.06	0.01	9	62%	0.12	0	0.00	6	83%	0.04
Rudy Gay	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.37,0.08	0.05	0.05	0.02	18	63%	0.27	6	-0.18	10	90%	0.07
Kosta Koufos	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	7	56%	0.06	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.03
Willie Cauley-Stein	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben McLemore	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Matt Barnes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Omri Casspi	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,0.07,0.1,0.38,0.55	0.55	0.12	0.44	0.02	24	60%	0.62	1	-0.08	4	75%	0.04
Damian Lillard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.22,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.37,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.23,0.34,0.34	0.34	0.18	0.16	0.01	19	77%	0.51	5	-0.17	9	78%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.23	0.23	0.04	0.19	0.00	9	55%	0.23	0	0.00	2	100%	0.09
Allen Crabbe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.00	-0.00	10	70%	0.12	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.05
Jake Layman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	3	83%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	5	53%	0.06	2	-0.08	5	40%	-0.06
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.07	0.00	9	44%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	31.8	1.8	29.3	15.5	25.4	2.6	31.0	2.5	20.2	160.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	2.2	17.9	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +59.9%

SAC -25.3%

SAC -8.5%

POR +14.7%

POR +9.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	POR	NBA	SAC	POR	NBA
this game	16.0	14.6	14.8	115.4	117.3	107.7
season	15.4	14.9		106.0	108.6
opponent	14.5	14.6		109.8	110.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAC	15.0	17.3	16.1	16.3	14.8	16.0
POR	11.7	17.0	15.2	15.1	15.1	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Barnes	38	38	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.08	7	-9	16	15.5	16.2	-0.70	13.6	15.2	-1.66
Kosta Koufos	37	36	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.16	-3	1	-4	17.0	15.4	1.56	14.8	14.5	0.26
Omri Casspi	31	32	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-3	4	16.8	15.6	1.24	15.3	14.3	0.98
Ben McLemore	33	33	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-1	0	16.5	15.7	0.75	15.5	14.2	1.38
Willie Cauley-Stein	15	15	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	1	-4	19.3	15.4	3.85	14.2	14.7	-0.47
Ty Lawson	31	31	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.06	-6	4	-10	16.8	15.6	1.14	13.1	15.2	-2.10
Darren Collison	73	73	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.50	4	-6	10	15.6	16.8	-1.14	15.2	13.1	2.10
Garrett Temple	37	37	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.45	-1	-1	0	14.8	16.6	-1.76	15.2	14.3	0.86
Rudy Gay	84	83	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.42	-3	1	-4	16.0	15.9	0.09	14.8	13.8	1.00
Arron Afflalo	64	64	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.42	-4	2	-6	16.0	15.9	0.03	14.0	15.5	-1.45
DeMarcus Cousins	77	78	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.54	-1	-1	0	15.0	18.7	-3.69	14.4	15.2	-0.73

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ McCollum	80	79	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.38	12	-10	22	14.2	16.1	-1.92	15.3	18.2	-2.93
Maurice Harkless	71	72	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.51	4	-2	6	14.6	14.6	-0.04	15.3	17.5	-2.16
Damian Lillard	82	84	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.56	-1	3	-4	14.7	14.3	0.36	16.0	16.0	-0.10
Allen Crabbe	73	72	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.47	1	1	0	15.1	13.4	1.74	16.1	15.7	0.36
Meyers Leonard	58	58	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.41	2	0	2	13.8	15.7	-1.92	15.4	16.7	-1.26
Mason Plumlee	69	68	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.20	5	-3	8	14.4	15.0	-0.59	15.5	16.8	-1.32
Jake Layman	27	26	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	-0.04	-3	5	-8	14.4	14.7	-0.27	16.4	15.8	0.55
Evan Turner	42	42	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.10	-6	8	-14	15.3	14.1	1.14	17.5	14.9	2.60
Ed Davis	18	19	-0.30	0.80	-1.11	-0.19	-4	6	-10	16.4	14.2	2.16	20.4	15.0	5.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.76,0.64,0.7,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.38,0.33,0.24,0.19,0.26,0.24,0.47,0.75,0.85,0.83,0.98,0.5,0.69,0.55,0.45,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 86, HOU 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.73,0.8,0.63,0.57,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.6,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.53,0.47,0.61,0.85,0.94,1,1	87.5%
BOS 90, TOR 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.65,0.64,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.77,0.81,0.77,0.67,0.78,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.76,0.76,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.23,0.31,0.47,0.53,0.75,0.89,0.99,1,1	87.5%
DET 100, MIN 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.79,0.7,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.46,0.54,0.81,0.93,0.91,0.96,1	87.4%