NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	107		Excitement	5.2 [794]		MVP	Brandon Jennings (DET): +14.0%
Toronto Raptors	111		Comeback	1.0 [1157]		LVP	Anthony Tolliver (DET): -8.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Jennings	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.15	0.02	0.03	14	67%	0.14	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Reggie Jackson	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	11	48%	0.04	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Darrun Hilliard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	0.00	0.04	3	83%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	14	46%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	11	56%	0.03	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Stanley Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	13	40%	-0.04	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.02
Aron Baynes	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.01	-0.03	0.06	7	55%	-0.03	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.02
Andre Drummond	-0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	0.03	9	41%	-0.07	1	-0.02	9	11%	-0.10
Anthony Tolliver	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	0.04	6	42%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.02	-0.04	11	59%	0.12	1	-0.00	5	80%	0.02
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.03	-0.03	6	60%	0.10	0	0.00	8	75%	0.03
James Johnson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.00	0.01	5	92%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.02	4	62%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.02	0.03	21	56%	0.09	4	-0.08	10	90%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	9	50%	0.05	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	8	50%	-0.05
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	15	43%	0.02	2	-0.05	12	75%	-0.03
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	0.8	32.4	15.7	32.2	2.4	46.2	153.6
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +34.9%

TOR +14.6%

TOR +8.7%

DET -6.7%

DET -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	TOR	NBA	DET	TOR	NBA
this game	14.3	14.7	14.9	108.1	111.0	105.1
season	15.0	16.1		104.9	107.2
opponent	14.8	15.1		104.6	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.0	13.7	15.7	13.0	14.3
TOR	17.1	13.0	15.0	14.2	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrun Hilliard	24	27	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.39	11	-15	26	10.5	15.5	-4.95	13.0	15.3	-2.37
Brandon Jennings	50	50	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.42	10	-14	24	12.6	15.9	-3.30	12.7	16.7	-3.94
Aron Baynes	47	48	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.56	13	-17	30	12.6	15.8	-3.19	12.6	16.6	-4.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	67	65	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.02	-8	4	-12	15.1	12.6	2.50	15.9	12.4	3.57
Marcus Morris	68	67	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.07	-5	1	-6	15.3	11.9	3.42	15.4	13.3	2.07
Anthony Tolliver	73	74	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.38	5	-9	14	14.2	14.4	-0.18	15.0	13.7	1.30
Andre Drummond	52	52	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.18	-17	13	-30	15.8	12.6	3.19	16.6	12.6	4.01
Reggie Jackson	53	55	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.02	-18	14	-32	16.0	12.2	3.84	15.8	13.4	2.43
Stanley Johnson	61	62	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.31	-11	7	-18	13.5	15.5	-1.98	13.6	16.4	-2.83

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cory Joseph	61	60	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.36	9	-5	14	13.6	16.5	-2.90	14.0	14.6	-0.56
Bismack Biyombo	42	40	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.11	14	-10	24	15.0	14.5	0.49	15.7	13.3	2.43
Patrick Patterson	49	51	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.01	15	-11	26	15.0	14.4	0.53	15.1	13.4	1.70
Terrence Ross	44	44	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.13	8	-4	12	13.7	15.4	-1.68	15.4	13.4	2.00
Kyle Lowry	84	82	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.34	-5	9	-14	14.7	14.8	-0.15	14.1	15.1	-0.97
DeMar DeRozan	69	69	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.35	-6	10	-16	15.2	13.6	1.51	13.6	15.8	-2.22
James Johnson	43	42	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.02	4	0	4	16.2	13.5	2.67	14.8	13.8	1.01
Luis Scola	50	48	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.31	-9	13	-22	14.7	14.7	0.06	13.4	15.1	-1.70
Jonas Valanciunas	58	59	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.27	-10	14	-24	14.5	15.0	-0.49	13.3	15.7	-2.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.69,0.76,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.92,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 83, TOR 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.65,0.72,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.71,0.85,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1	95.5%
SEA 86, WAS 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.77,0.77,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.54,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
MIA 104, SAS 114	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.85,0.82,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.65,0.6,0.7,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.56,0.8,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.98,1,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%