NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	108		Excitement	5.9 [656]		MVP	Gary Harris (DEN): +21.2%
Denver Nuggets	114		Comeback	4.3 [161]		LVP	Jason Terry (HOU): -9.6%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donatas Motiejunas	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.14	0.04	-0.00	11	79%	0.21	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
James Harden	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.11	0.05	0.03	-0.03	20	56%	0.15	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.03
Marcus Thornton	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	-0.00	0.00	8	72%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Patrick Beverley	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	0.01	0.04	11	64%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	10	59%	0.08	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.00
Trevor Ariza	-0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.06	-0.01	0.06	12	67%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	4	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Terrence Jones	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.1	-0.01	-0.08	0.00	3	33%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Harris	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.13	0.08	-0.00	11	81%	0.26	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.06	0.05	-0.06	18	56%	0.21	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.05
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.01	0.03	3	100%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	8	65%	0.10	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	8	61%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Joffrey Lauvergne	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	0.02	11	64%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kostas Papanikolaou	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.11	0.02	-0.02	13	38%	0.02	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	30%	-0.05	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.6	30.2	15.3	25.5	1.8	35.1	132.9
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +17.7%

DEN +16.3%

DEN +31.2%

HOU -14.0%

HOU -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DEN	NBA	HOU	DEN	NBA
this game	14.7	15.3	14.9	113.7	117.5	105.1
season	14.0	14.9		105.9	104.3
opponent	14.9	15.1		107.8	106.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.8	13.3	18.0	13.0	14.7
DEN	12.9	17.2	15.6	15.8	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patrick Beverley	65	66	0.18	-0.68	0.85	-0.29	16	-22	38	14.8	14.4	0.35	16.5	12.7	3.79
James Harden	68	69	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.25	9	-15	24	14.5	15.1	-0.61	15.7	14.3	1.45
Dwight Howard	66	69	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.41	14	-20	34	13.9	16.3	-2.41	15.6	14.5	1.10
Jason Terry	26	27	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.28	4	-10	14	12.7	15.4	-2.68	15.3	15.3	-0.03
Terrence Jones	26	25	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.05	-9	3	-12	16.3	14.1	2.25	14.9	15.5	-0.59
Trevor Ariza	82	83	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.39	5	-11	16	14.8	14.1	0.69	15.9	11.9	4.05
Donatas Motiejunas	41	42	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.15	-14	8	-22	15.3	14.2	1.17	15.6	15.1	0.44
Corey Brewer	33	34	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.05	-10	4	-14	14.1	15.0	-0.85	13.4	16.3	-2.89
Ty Lawson	27	27	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.06	-22	16	-38	15.4	14.4	1.03	13.9	15.9	-1.98
Marcus Thornton	41	43	-0.77	0.27	-1.03	-0.09	-23	17	-40	15.3	14.2	1.05	13.6	16.7	-3.16

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	47	47	0.81	-0.31	1.13	0.11	24	-18	42	12.7	17.8	-5.04	14.7	14.6	0.06
Will Barton	69	67	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.41	10	-4	14	14.4	17.6	-3.22	14.1	16.0	-1.93
Gary Harris	80	79	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.20	12	-6	18	15.3	15.5	-0.18	15.1	12.7	2.31
Jameer Nelson	76	74	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.22	9	-3	12	15.1	16.0	-0.93	14.8	14.4	0.38
Danilo Gallinari	63	61	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.21	2	4	-2	15.5	15.0	0.54	15.3	13.5	1.87
Kostas Papanikolaou	29	29	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	6	-6	15.2	15.4	-0.21	13.7	15.1	-1.42
Randy Foye	26	26	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.08	-1	7	-8	14.4	15.6	-1.22	13.6	15.1	-1.46
Mike Miller	17	16	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.10	-4	10	-14	17.3	14.9	2.39	13.3	14.9	-1.64
Joffrey Lauvergne	41	40	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.16	-11	17	-28	17.9	13.4	4.43	14.5	14.8	-0.26
Kenneth Faried	37	36	-0.33	0.83	-1.17	-0.01	-11	17	-28	17.5	14.0	3.55	15.9	13.9	1.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.69,0.78,0.77,0.76,0.73,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.46,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.22,0.19,0.27,0.2,0.23,0.34,0.41,0.6,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.75,0.83,0.85,0.96,1,0.99,0.97,1,0.99,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 82, CLE 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.31,0.23,0.3,0.33,0.39,0.29,0.32,0.44,0.48,0.7,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.83,0.85,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	92.7%
TOR 78, PHI 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.56,0.64,0.78,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	91.6%
DEN 101, DAL 115	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.68,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	90.9%