NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	111		Excitement	5.2 [803]		MVP	Isaiah Thomas (BOS): +17.9%
Houston Rockets	95		Comeback	4.8 [126]		LVP	Marcus Smart (BOS): -30.2%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Isaiah Thomas	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.19	0.02	0.03	12	92%	0.21	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.03	0.01	10	76%	0.17	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Jonas Jerebko	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.02	4	75%	0.03	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.11	-0.01	0.08	14	70%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Tyler Zeller	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.03	6	56%	0.02	2	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Terry Rozier	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
RJ Hunter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Sullinger	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	9	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	5	54%	0.02	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Kelly Olynyk	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.11	0.00	-0.06	11	33%	-0.00	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Smart	-0.30	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.27,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3	-0.24	-0.07	-0.01	11	15%	-0.17	5	-0.14	4	50%	-0.02

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
KJ McDaniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	25%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	8	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.03
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	10	67%	0.08	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.01
Trevor Ariza	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	-0.00	16	58%	0.09	4	-0.12	1	100%	0.00
Montrezl Harrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	5	58%	0.02	4	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	4	50%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	4	33%	-0.01	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Terrence Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.01	-0.04	0.06	14	47%	-0.05	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.05
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	14	35%	-0.05	2	-0.05	3	67%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.3	34.1	14.7	28.8	1.7	26.6	132.4
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +23.0%

HOU -0.3%

BOS +9.8%

BOS +19.3%

HOU -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	HOU	NBA	BOS	HOU	NBA
this game	14.3	13.7	14.9	107.8	92.2	105.1
season	13.9	14.0		104.5	105.9
opponent	15.1	15.0		106.9	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.8	13.1	16.2	14.4	14.3
HOU	15.5	12.1	15.1	12.3	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jae Crowder	59	59	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.11	24	-8	32	14.4	14.2	0.26	14.5	12.5	2.01
Amir Johnson	45	45	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.03	20	-4	24	14.5	14.2	0.28	15.6	12.2	3.42
Jared Sullinger	53	53	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.09	20	-4	24	14.0	14.6	-0.60	14.8	12.4	2.39
Marcus Smart	62	65	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.44	30	-14	44	13.8	15.1	-1.39	15.0	11.3	3.66
Avery Bradley	47	46	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.24	17	-1	18	13.7	14.8	-1.08	12.6	14.5	-1.96
Jonas Jerebko	31	31	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.01	7	9	-2	14.4	14.3	0.11	12.4	14.2	-1.76
Isaiah Thomas	48	48	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.09	0	16	-16	14.9	13.8	1.10	15.3	12.2	3.03
Evan Turner	39	39	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.26	11	5	6	14.5	14.2	0.33	12.7	14.2	-1.46
RJ Hunter	23	23	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.29	-8	24	-32	15.2	14.1	1.11	11.9	14.2	-2.29
Kelly Olynyk	50	50	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.12	-4	20	-24	14.6	14.0	0.60	12.4	14.8	-2.39
Terry Rozier	14	13	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.38	-13	29	-42	14.2	14.3	-0.11	10.3	14.1	-3.83
David Lee	12	11	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.06	-6	22	-28	14.1	14.3	-0.26	11.2	13.9	-2.76
Tyler Zeller	32	32	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.39	-18	34	-52	14.1	14.4	-0.27	11.5	14.6	-3.07

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
KJ McDaniels	21	21	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.26	9	-25	34	11.5	14.2	-2.67	15.0	14.1	0.87
Marcus Thornton	27	27	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.10	3	-19	22	12.3	14.1	-1.89	14.4	14.3	0.13
Montrezl Harrell	28	26	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-16	16	14.2	13.5	0.73	13.2	14.7	-1.50
Terrence Jones	59	60	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.24	5	-21	26	13.5	13.8	-0.25	14.6	13.9	0.73
Dwight Howard	62	62	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.17	-10	-6	-4	14.7	12.0	2.70	14.4	14.1	0.31
Ty Lawson	57	58	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.15	-12	-4	-8	14.3	12.9	1.37	13.8	15.0	-1.15
Jason Terry	40	38	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.27	-17	1	-18	13.8	13.5	0.33	14.6	14.1	0.47
Corey Brewer	54	55	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.22	-3	-13	10	11.9	15.6	-3.63	14.0	14.6	-0.63
Clint Capela	41	41	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.20	-6	-10	4	12.0	14.7	-2.70	14.1	14.4	-0.31
Trevor Ariza	64	64	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.23	-22	6	-28	14.8	11.7	3.15	14.8	13.6	1.20
James Harden	62	63	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	0.12	-27	11	-38	14.4	12.5	1.93	14.3	14.3	-0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.8,0.79,0.74,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.83,0.72,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.29,0.35,0.27,0.19,0.07,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 109, MIL 94	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.64,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.45,0.46,0.39,0.32,0.23,0.24,0.21,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%
SAC 99, UTA 82	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.38,0.31,0.41,0.26,0.18,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.6%
BOS 103, UTA 83	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.76,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.64,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.24,0.14,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	92.7%