NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	97		Excitement	5.8 [658]		MVP	Nikola Vucevic (ORL): +22.3%
Minnesota Timberwolves	84		Comeback	1.0 [924]		LVP	Victor Oladipo (ORL): -21.9%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Vucevic	0.22	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.20	0.06	0.04	25	69%	0.27	2	-0.05	4	25%	-0.02
Tobias Harris	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	20	56%	0.15	4	-0.10	5	60%	-0.01
Willie Green	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.06	0.02	-0.05	6	36%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Maurice Harkless	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	10	35%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	3	50%	-0.00	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Elfrid Payton	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	9	50%	0.03	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.20	-0.06	-0.04	19	21%	-0.16	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Adreian Payne	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	9	67%	0.12	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.01	7	63%	0.08	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Justin Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	-0.00	7	70%	0.04	2	-0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Robbie Hummel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	2	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	0.03	12	59%	0.08	5	-0.15	13	77%	0.01
Lorenzo Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	0.01	-0.01	12	39%	0.02	3	-0.10	7	86%	0.01
Zach LaVine	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.03	0.01	14	34%	-0.09	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.3	32.4	15.7	23.1	2.4	31.5	132.6
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +12.8%

MIN -8.5%

ORL +44.1%

ORL +1.8%

MIN -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIN	NBA	ORL	MIN	NBA
this game	16.3	13.9	15.1	101.0	88.4	104.2
season	14.9	15.0		100.4	101.2
opponent	15.0	15.3		110.5	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.1	14.8	15.4	20.2	16.3
MIN	15.6	13.4	13.4	13.1	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Vucevic	79	77	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.15	14	-1	15	16.2	16.5	-0.23	14.3	12.1	2.23
Tobias Harris	74	73	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.04	20	-7	27	16.0	17.2	-1.23	13.7	14.3	-0.59
Elfrid Payton	80	79	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.16	13	0	13	15.8	18.9	-3.11	14.1	12.7	1.41
Aaron Gordon	60	59	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.19	5	8	-3	16.5	15.9	0.54	13.9	13.8	0.14
Victor Oladipo	74	73	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.08	7	6	1	17.0	14.0	2.96	14.0	13.5	0.41
Willie Green	34	34	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	8	-3	16.5	16.1	0.38	13.5	14.1	-0.61
Andrew Nicholson	11	13	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	10	-7	12.0	16.8	-4.84	12.5	14.1	-1.53
Maurice Harkless	33	32	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	13	-13	16.3	16.3	-0.01	13.3	14.1	-0.83
Dewayne Dedmon	35	35	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	15	-17	17.5	15.6	1.90	13.8	13.9	-0.15

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chase Budinger	71	72	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-19	25	13.8	14.2	-0.41	16.5	15.6	0.88
Lorenzo Brown	20	20	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.01	-5	-8	3	12.9	14.1	-1.16	15.2	16.6	-1.37
Justin Hamilton	74	75	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.15	-5	-8	3	14.1	13.1	0.99	16.2	16.4	-0.19
Adreian Payne	48	48	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.10	-15	2	-17	13.5	14.2	-0.69	16.2	16.4	-0.23
Robbie Hummel	41	43	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.17	-6	-7	1	14.2	13.6	0.58	15.8	16.6	-0.80
Zach LaVine	77	79	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.09	-12	-1	-11	13.9	13.6	0.38	16.5	15.2	1.27
Andrew Wiggins	75	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.07	-13	0	-13	13.7	14.3	-0.55	16.1	17.0	-0.92
Kevin Martin	69	68	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.03	-15	2	-17	14.1	13.3	0.82	16.7	15.2	1.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.33,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.15,0.26,0.27,0.22,0.26,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.07,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 95, PHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.17,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.23,0.26,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.21,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0	94.2%
BOS 81, DET 71	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.28,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.17,0.24,0.23,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.11,0.12,0.18,0.26,0.19,0.2,0.26,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.41,0.32,0.26,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.02,0.01,0,0	94.0%
ATL 93, MIA 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.2,0.26,0.23,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.07,0.11,0.17,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.11,0.21,0.1,0.15,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.03,0,0,0	93.8%