NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	113		Excitement	8.3 [202]		MVP	Rudy Gay (SAC): +24.4%
Charlotte Hornets	106		Comeback	1.8 [438]		LVP	Kemba Walker (CHA): -14.1%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0.24	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.24	0.10	0.14	-0.01	17	62%	0.28	2	-0.04	8	75%	0.03
Ben McLemore	0.22	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.32,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.17	0.07	0.03	16	75%	0.29	1	-0.08	4	100%	0.01
DeMarcus Cousins	0.13	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.17,-0.18,-0.01,0.04,0.13,0.13	-0.03	0.14	-0.01	17	51%	0.27	4	-0.15	5	80%	-0.02
Carl Landry	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	4	83%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Jason Thompson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.03	0.00	4	70%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Omri Casspi	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.03	0.00	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ray McCallum	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	7	32%	-0.04	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Derrick Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	5	30%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	0.01	-0.00	9	39%	0.02	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.15	0.07	-0.00	12	72%	0.24	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.05
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.06	0.00	3	87%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.07	-0.01	10	52%	0.13	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	12	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.03
Mo Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.07,-0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	20	47%	0.08	2	-0.10	3	100%	0.03
Gerald Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	16	47%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	9	45%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Kemba Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	9	30%	-0.12	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	29.0	15.7	27.3	2.3	39.5	141.3
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +48.7%

SAC +10.3%

CHA -9.1%

CHA -7.1%

SAC +7.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	CHA	NBA	SAC	CHA	NBA
this game	14.9	13.8	15.1	113.0	105.0	104.2
season	14.9	15.6		103.7	98.9
opponent	15.1	14.8		102.6	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	16.7	14.0	15.3	13.7	14.9
CHA	13.9	14.2	14.1	13.0	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Williams	50	49	1.01	-0.51	1.52	0.45	19	-12	31	14.1	15.7	-1.56	14.4	13.2	1.30
Andre Miller	54	54	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.32	11	-4	15	14.0	15.9	-1.95	14.8	12.6	2.14
Ben McLemore	86	89	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.33	7	0	7	14.7	16.0	-1.30	13.4	16.5	-3.08
Jason Thompson	28	28	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.09	10	-3	13	14.4	15.1	-0.63	15.3	13.2	2.13
DeMarcus Cousins	72	73	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.20	-3	10	-13	15.1	14.4	0.63	13.2	15.3	-2.13
Rudy Gay	80	80	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.11	0	7	-7	15.1	13.8	1.35	13.7	14.0	-0.27
Carl Landry	39	40	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	6	-5	15.8	14.3	1.46	12.6	14.6	-1.96
Omri Casspi	40	39	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	9	-11	15.0	14.8	0.16	14.2	13.5	0.69
Ray McCallum	51	53	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	-0.05	-8	15	-23	15.7	14.0	1.73	13.4	14.2	-0.73

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	67	66	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.16	9	-16	25	13.5	14.4	-0.86	15.4	13.8	1.65
Al Jefferson	53	51	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-9	11	13.2	14.4	-1.13	15.2	14.5	0.69
Mo Williams	81	80	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.17	4	-11	15	13.3	15.6	-2.33	15.1	14.0	1.04
Marvin Williams	70	68	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.19	-4	-3	-1	13.0	15.5	-2.55	14.9	14.8	0.10
Jason Maxiell	29	31	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.07	-9	2	-11	15.0	13.3	1.76	13.5	15.5	-2.02
Lance Stephenson	54	52	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.20	-6	-1	-5	14.6	12.9	1.66	14.0	15.8	-1.79
Kemba Walker	32	33	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.11	-10	3	-13	15.6	12.9	2.65	14.8	14.9	-0.05
Bismack Biyombo	47	47	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.29	-7	0	-7	14.5	13.1	1.36	15.1	14.7	0.47
Gerald Henderson	72	72	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.23	-14	7	-21	13.4	14.8	-1.47	14.9	14.7	0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.38,0.43,0.3,0.1,0.15,0.53,0.31,0.08,0.06,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 109, ATL 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.24,0.11,0.15,0.01,0	91.8%
NYK 98, MIA 94	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.38,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.22,0.29,0.4,0.31,0.37,0.06,0.13,0	91.8%
SAC 100, ATL 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.71,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.16,0.03,0.15,0	91.7%