NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	81		Excitement	4.6 [908]		MVP	Trey Burke (UTA): +13.2%
Utah Jazz	90		Comeback	1.3 [399]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -14.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Boris Diaw	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	9	72%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	44%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Patty Mills	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Ayres	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	14	48%	0.01	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Reggie Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	6	59%	0.01	3	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	6	47%	0.02	3	-0.08	5	40%	-0.04
Aron Baynes	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	8	22%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Danny Green	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	4	25%	-0.05	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.01	9	28%	-0.05	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.02	0.00	9	36%	-0.05	4	-0.09	4	50%	-0.03

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trey Burke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.04	-0.02	17	61%	0.15	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Joe Ingles	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	7	71%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Evans	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Hood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gobert	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Dante Exum	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.02	3	83%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Favors	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.01	15	41%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Elijah Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.10	0.00	-0.05	8	25%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gordon Hayward	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	15	44%	0.02	3	-0.07	11	91%	0.03
Trevor Booker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	8	39%	-0.00	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.7	27.6	14.5	28.4	2.4	28.0	126.7
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +19.8%

UTA +13.9%

SAS -1.7%

UTA +17.3%

UTA +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	UTA	NBA	SAS	UTA	NBA
this game	15.1	14.6	15.1	84.4	91.8	104.2
season	15.4	16.2		106.9	103.8
opponent	15.3	14.9		103.7	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.1	15.0	15.4	14.9	15.1
UTA	13.7	15.6	14.0	15.1	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Ayres	11	11	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.12	4	-13	17	11.5	15.6	-4.12	14.6	14.6	0.05
Reggie Williams	18	18	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.11	3	-12	15	13.9	15.4	-1.50	15.8	14.3	1.52
Patty Mills	20	22	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.19	4	-13	17	11.4	16.1	-4.68	13.5	14.9	-1.41
Cory Joseph	44	44	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.20	4	-13	17	15.2	15.1	0.10	14.3	14.8	-0.46
Tiago Splitter	15	17	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.00	-4	-5	1	13.1	15.5	-2.34	15.3	14.4	0.85
Danny Green	39	41	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.22	3	-12	15	12.7	16.8	-4.11	15.4	14.0	1.46
Aron Baynes	51	48	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-6	3	15.4	14.8	0.57	15.5	13.7	1.74
Manu Ginobili	43	44	-0.21	-0.28	0.07	-0.13	-3	-6	3	15.3	15.0	0.32	13.0	15.9	-2.81
Tim Duncan	54	55	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	-8	-1	-7	15.9	14.1	1.75	14.4	14.9	-0.52
Kawhi Leonard	49	49	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.06	-13	4	-17	16.7	13.4	3.29	14.5	14.7	-0.20
Tony Parker	41	42	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.02	-11	2	-13	15.4	14.9	0.54	15.7	13.7	1.96
Marco Belinelli	48	49	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.02	-13	4	-17	16.3	13.9	2.42	14.4	14.8	-0.41
Boris Diaw	47	50	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.14	-8	-1	-7	16.1	14.2	1.92	14.0	15.2	-1.17

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gordon Hayward	68	70	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.05	16	-7	23	13.5	17.1	-3.57	15.2	14.8	0.35
Trevor Booker	50	47	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.03	11	-2	13	13.9	15.3	-1.33	16.2	14.0	2.17
Rudy Gobert	63	63	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.09	9	0	9	13.8	16.1	-2.28	15.2	14.9	0.34
Trey Burke	60	58	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.15	6	3	3	14.1	15.4	-1.27	15.2	14.9	0.30
Elijah Millsap	57	53	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.35	-2	11	-13	15.1	13.8	1.31	14.2	16.2	-2.00
Derrick Favors	61	63	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.18	1	8	-7	15.0	13.9	1.17	15.0	15.4	-0.44
Joe Ingles	55	54	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.17	1	8	-7	14.7	14.5	0.18	14.6	15.8	-1.17
Dante Exum	42	41	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.20	-1	10	-11	15.6	13.8	1.76	14.2	15.8	-1.63
Rodney Hood	22	21	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.06	1	8	-7	16.3	14.1	2.23	17.0	14.6	2.49
Jeremy Evans	12	10	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.01	3	6	-3	18.3	14.1	4.26	16.0	15.0	1.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.87,0.81,0.86,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 96, DET 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.85,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.98,1,1	96.3%
PHX 114, GSW 129	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.82,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
BKN 91, MEM 101	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.79,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.97,1,0.99,0.98,1,1,1	96.0%