NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	96		Excitement	5.5 [717]		MVP	DeMarre Carroll (ATL): +14.2%
Atlanta Hawks	105		Comeback	1.2 [869]		LVP	Kevin Seraphin (WAS): -11.0%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Wall	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.01	0.00	15	71%	0.16	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Nene	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	0.01	0.04	12	59%	0.05	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Marcin Gortat	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.00	5	87%	0.12	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.04
Martell Webster	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	150%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bradley Beal	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	19	48%	0.01	1	-0.02	10	70%	-0.02
Paul Pierce	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	5	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Otto Porter	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	7	20%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Garrett Temple	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	0.04	6	43%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kris Humphries	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	4	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Seraphin	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.07	-0.03	10	58%	0.17	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.03	-0.01	7	69%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jeff Teague	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.13	-0.00	0.05	13	76%	0.15	4	-0.07	8	75%	-0.01
Pero Antic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	64%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	8	53%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Jenkins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	24	43%	0.01	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02	4	-0.08	2	0%	-0.05
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	7	35%	-0.08	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	30.5	16.4	28.4	2.4	30.7	133.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +56.2%

WAS -20.5%

ATL +14.2%

WAS -4.9%

ATL +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	ATL	NBA	WAS	ATL	NBA
this game	14.5	15.1	15.1	99.0	107.1	104.2
season	15.1	14.9		102.9	106.7
opponent	15.4	15.3		101.8	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	11.8	14.7	16.2	15.5	14.5
ATL	15.3	16.7	13.1	15.1	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	50	52	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.02	2	-11	13	14.1	14.9	-0.71	15.9	14.1	1.82
Rasual Butler	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-13	17	1.0	14.6	-13.63	16.0	15.0	0.97
Nene	57	58	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-10	11	14.4	14.6	-0.20	15.5	14.4	1.02
Martell Webster	10	10	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.07	-1	-8	7	13.1	14.6	-1.54	15.3	15.0	0.28
Marcin Gortat	60	60	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.07	-8	-1	-7	14.1	15.1	-0.92	14.7	15.7	-0.99
Bradley Beal	77	78	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.14	-1	-8	7	14.8	13.4	1.30	15.4	13.5	1.95
John Wall	79	79	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.03	-6	-3	-3	14.4	15.1	-0.70	14.8	15.9	-1.11
Kevin Seraphin	34	36	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.36	1	-10	11	15.1	14.2	0.93	15.5	14.8	0.71
Otto Porter	41	40	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.20	-8	-1	-7	14.9	14.2	0.77	14.1	15.7	-1.61
Kris Humphries	39	38	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.05	-14	5	-19	14.9	14.2	0.78	14.4	15.5	-1.11
Garrett Temple	37	37	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.19	-15	6	-21	14.6	14.4	0.13	14.6	15.3	-0.69

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dennis Schroder	38	39	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.15	12	-3	15	14.0	15.7	-1.67	14.9	14.2	0.73
Kent Bazemore	51	48	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.19	8	1	7	15.1	15.0	0.14	14.9	14.0	0.90
Paul Millsap	69	67	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.05	12	-3	15	15.1	15.0	0.12	14.8	13.8	1.04
DeMarre Carroll	64	67	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.18	6	3	3	15.3	14.5	0.84	14.6	14.3	0.32
Mike Scott	27	26	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.31	-1	10	-11	14.9	15.1	-0.17	15.8	14.0	1.81
Pero Antic	30	28	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.08	5	4	1	14.1	15.5	-1.42	14.4	14.5	-0.18
Kyle Korver	76	75	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.03	5	4	1	14.8	16.0	-1.28	14.2	15.5	-1.37
Jeff Teague	63	61	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	9	-9	15.6	14.0	1.63	14.3	14.7	-0.38
Al Horford	70	73	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	7	-5	15.5	14.0	1.52	13.8	16.7	-2.90
John Jenkins	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	13	-17	16.0	15.0	0.97	1.0	14.6	-13.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.77,0.87,0.84,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.7,0.73,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.77,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 87, POR 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.69,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.84,0.86,0.84,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.75,0.67,0.64,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.48,0.54,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.86,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
MIN 81, SAC 87	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.76,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.8,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.73,0.7,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.59,0.48,0.64,0.58,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.91,0.9,0.95,0.99,0.99,1	93.9%
DEN 85, DAL 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.68,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.71,0.76,0.79,0.85,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.8,0.83,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.67,0.72,0.59,0.63,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.82,0.75,0.88,0.92,0.85,0.95,0.89,0.84,0.99,1,1	93.4%