NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	82		Excitement	6.1 [594]		MVP	Jared Dudley (MIL): +17.6%
Toronto Raptors	75		Comeback	1.0 [375]		LVP	Lou Williams (TOR): -19.0%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jared Dudley	0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.03	0.14	-0.00	12	50%	0.18	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Khris Middleton	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12	0.15	-0.02	0.01	17	69%	0.13	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
John Henson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.03	0.01	8	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	9	39%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.05	-0.00	9	46%	-0.05	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.09
Johnny O'Bryant	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16	-0.17	-0.04	-0.05	12	32%	-0.10	5	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
Jorge Gutierrez	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.14	-0.04	-0.01	5	0%	-0.10	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	9	67%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	12	42%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.07	1	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.09	0.06	-0.01	16	40%	0.02	2	-0.04	8	75%	0.05
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	8	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	11	36%	-0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19	-0.19	-0.16	-0.04	-0.01	7	14%	-0.09	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.09	-0.08	0.02	12	35%	-0.12	2	-0.07	10	90%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	31.3	14.8	25.0	2.5	31.7	130.9
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +35.9%

TOR -17.6%

MIL +1.9%

MIL +24.5%

MIL +5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	TOR	NBA	MIL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.7	16.3	15.1	91.1	83.3	104.2
season	14.5	15.6		100.5	109.1
opponent	15.0	15.7		106.8	101.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.1	13.8	15.8	19.4	15.7
TOR	18.6	14.4	18.5	14.0	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Khris Middleton	73	70	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.29	11	-4	15	15.3	17.4	-2.05	16.6	15.4	1.11
Giannis Antetokounmpo	61	63	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.15	14	-7	21	16.3	14.5	1.78	17.2	14.3	2.88
Jared Dudley	71	71	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.23	10	-3	13	15.3	17.3	-2.06	16.8	14.5	2.26
John Henson	53	54	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.13	9	-2	11	16.2	14.9	1.26	16.5	16.0	0.56
Jerryd Bayless	64	63	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.35	-6	13	-19	15.9	15.2	0.75	14.9	19.5	-4.58
Jorge Gutierrez	51	52	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.06	3	4	-1	15.3	16.2	-0.91	17.5	14.6	2.91
Kenyon Martin	37	36	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.16	-2	9	-11	14.9	16.2	-1.26	16.0	16.5	-0.56
O.J. Mayo	21	22	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	8	-9	15.7	15.7	-0.03	14.1	17.0	-2.94
Johnny O'Bryant	19	19	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	10	-13	17.3	15.3	2.06	14.5	16.8	-2.26

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Hansbrough	33	33	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.24	5	-12	17	15.8	16.6	-0.73	17.9	14.4	3.51
Terrence Ross	60	60	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.35	8	-15	23	15.0	19.0	-4.03	16.3	14.5	1.73
Amir Johnson	32	33	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.03	-9	2	-11	18.5	15.1	3.40	13.5	16.9	-3.38
Patrick Patterson	58	57	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.33	2	-9	11	15.1	18.5	-3.40	16.9	13.5	3.38
Lou Williams	53	52	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.22	-2	-5	3	15.5	17.5	-2.00	16.6	14.4	2.15
Jonas Valanciunas	50	50	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.02	-9	2	-11	17.0	15.4	1.64	13.9	18.0	-4.11
DeMar DeRozan	47	47	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	5	-17	18.0	14.5	3.53	14.6	16.9	-2.33
Kyle Lowry	57	57	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.04	-12	5	-17	16.2	16.5	-0.27	14.5	17.8	-3.31
Greivis Vasquez	60	61	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.26	-6	-1	-5	16.8	15.3	1.47	16.6	13.7	2.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.25,0.27,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.22,0.31,0.36,0.15,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 100, DEN 95	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.24,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.23,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.15,0.17,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.31,0.21,0.06,0.02,0	94.2%
MIL 89, DET 87	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.35,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.23,0.19,0.26,0.3,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.27,0.26,0.14,0.13,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.22,0.09,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.17,0.27,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.29,0.22,0.09,0.1,0	93.5%
NOH 89, NYK 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.15,0.2,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.17,0.23,0.17,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.1,0.15,0	93.1%