NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	94		Excitement	9.3 [108]		MVP	Damian Lillard (POR): +18.8%
Portland Trail Blazers	98		Comeback	8.8 [369]		LVP	Rudy Gay (SAC): -21.8%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben McLemore	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.09	-0.03	0.10	-0.02	10	48%	0.14	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.07
Omri Casspi	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	62%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ray McCallum	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	5	40%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Evans	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	2	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jason Thompson	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.02	-0.01	17	48%	0.16	5	-0.21	12	67%	0.02
Darren Collison	-0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18	-0.06	-0.12	-0.00	11	57%	0.09	5	-0.27	1	0%	-0.01
Rudy Gay	-0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.07,-0.21,-0.22	-0.02	-0.23	-0.03	19	59%	0.15	6	-0.36	6	83%	0.06

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,0.05,0.19	0.19	0.02	0.18	0.00	19	45%	0.19	0	0.00	11	73%	-0.06
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.07	0.07	-0.06	0.11	-0.01	8	40%	0.10	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.04
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	5	90%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Victor Claver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	7	71%	0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	6	64%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	7	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Chris Kaman	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	7	29%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.06,0,0,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.04	-0.10	-0.00	2	50%	-0.08	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.20
Wesley Matthews	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.05,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.04	-0.13	-0.01	20	40%	-0.15	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	33.6	15.6	23.3	2.4	53.3	152.9
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC -6.1%

SAC -30.8%

POR +15.0%

POR +73.6%

SAC -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	POR	NBA	SAC	POR	NBA
this game	14.2	14.5	15.1	93.1	98.0	104.2
season	14.9	15.3		103.7	106.5
opponent	15.0	14.8		102.7	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	11.8	13.5	15.7	16.1	14.2
POR	15.5	12.7	15.6	14.5	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMarcus Cousins	80	81	0.25	-0.75	0.99	0.01	8	-12	20	13.6	16.3	-2.67	14.9	12.6	2.36
Omri Casspi	15	15	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.00	-1	-3	2	17.7	13.5	4.19	15.5	14.3	1.23
Ben McLemore	74	73	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.46	7	-11	18	13.4	16.3	-2.90	14.4	14.8	-0.44
Jason Thompson	62	60	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.40	5	-9	14	13.5	15.2	-1.69	14.0	15.2	-1.27
Darren Collison	77	78	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.49	6	-10	16	13.3	17.0	-3.71	14.4	14.7	-0.25
Ray McCallum	35	34	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.12	-15	11	-26	15.5	13.5	1.97	14.5	14.5	0.02
Reggie Evans	28	28	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.10	-15	11	-26	16.8	13.2	3.62	14.4	14.5	-0.13
Rudy Gay	84	82	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.42	-3	-1	-2	14.5	12.5	1.97	14.4	14.9	-0.55
Derrick Williams	50	49	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.39	-12	8	-20	14.4	14.0	0.42	14.5	14.5	0.08

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thomas Robinson	45	43	0.89	-0.39	1.28	0.39	17	-13	30	13.5	15.3	-1.82	14.8	13.7	1.12
Will Barton	29	30	0.82	-0.32	1.15	0.44	13	-9	22	15.1	14.3	0.82	15.3	13.7	1.61
Wesley Matthews	79	80	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.42	4	0	4	14.1	15.9	-1.79	14.7	12.1	2.56
Nicolas Batum	71	69	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.59	-9	13	-22	14.4	14.7	-0.33	13.7	15.2	-1.49
Damian Lillard	81	81	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.44	-5	9	-14	14.1	15.9	-1.80	13.6	16.6	-3.03
Steve Blake	26	29	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.15	14	-10	24	14.3	14.6	-0.30	15.5	13.6	1.89
Dorell Wright	32	35	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.15	8	-4	12	13.9	14.8	-0.90	15.1	13.7	1.45
CJ McCollum	15	14	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	8	-12	18.0	13.9	4.13	9.7	14.9	-5.17
Meyers Leonard	39	41	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.12	1	3	-2	15.2	14.0	1.17	13.1	14.9	-1.76
LaMarcus Aldridge	29	30	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.05	-6	10	-16	15.3	14.2	1.16	12.3	14.9	-2.61
Chris Kaman	39	39	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	-0.00	-7	11	-18	14.3	14.6	-0.34	15.2	13.5	1.65
Victor Claver	15	14	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.03	-6	10	-16	15.9	14.2	1.70	16.0	13.9	2.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.27,0.26,0.36,0.53,0.32,0.46,0.67,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 82, MEM 88	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.28,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.16,0.23,0.17,0.29,0.33,0.53,0.55,0.68,0.73,1	92.1%
ORL 98, HOU 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.37,0.28,0.22,0.2,0.26,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.27,0.16,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.09,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.47,0.34,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.67,0.85,1	91.6%
NYK 71, DET 80	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.12,0.38,0.46,0.65,0.96,1	91.4%