NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	95		Excitement	7.9 [258]		MVP	Tyreke Evans (NOP): +29.8%
Toronto Raptors	93		Comeback	28.3 [19]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): -18.5%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyreke Evans	0.30	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,-0.01,0.3	0.10	0.21	0.01	14	70%	0.55	4	-0.25	9	78%	-0.04
Alexis Ajinca	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.15	0.13	-0.00	13	79%	0.30	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Omer Asik	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09	0.00	0.09	0.00	10	50%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jimmer Fredette	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	6	54%	0.01	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Quincy Pondexter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	18%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Eric Gordon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.09	0.02	-0.01	15	45%	0.06	5	-0.12	1	100%	0.01
Dante Cunningham	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Ryan Anderson	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	11	37%	-0.02	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.00
Nate Wolters	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.08	0.02	9	61%	0.17	0	0.00	10	90%	0.02
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.08	-0.00	5	83%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.15	0.15	0.03	0.11	-0.02	18	49%	0.17	1	-0.01	9	78%	0.06
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.00	-0.01	7	78%	0.14	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.04
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	14	53%	0.12	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Hansbrough	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	5	50%	-0.01	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	0.01	10	40%	-0.10	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.5	24.4	15.0	29.1	2.4	39.5	136.6
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP +55.8%

TOR -28.6%

NOP +44.5%

TOR -25.5%

NOP +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	TOR	NBA	NOP	TOR	NBA
this game	15.3	15.2	15.1	100.0	98.9	104.2
season	15.8	15.6		106.3	109.1
opponent	15.0	15.2		106.8	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	14.9	15.8	14.2	16.5	15.3
TOR	17.1	16.2	12.4	15.5	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alexis Ajinca	65	65	0.82	-0.32	1.15	0.36	16	-14	30	15.1	15.6	-0.43	15.9	13.7	2.24
Omer Asik	61	63	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.58	8	-6	14	15.0	15.9	-0.90	15.6	14.4	1.17
Eric Gordon	69	70	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.47	8	-6	14	15.4	14.9	0.54	15.7	13.6	2.12
Tyreke Evans	71	71	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.50	5	-3	8	15.7	14.0	1.65	15.3	14.9	0.44
Quincy Pondexter	49	49	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.48	-7	9	-16	14.5	16.1	-1.53	14.2	16.2	-2.00
Jimmer Fredette	35	32	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	1	0	15.0	15.4	-0.48	14.4	15.6	-1.16
Dante Cunningham	53	53	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.03	0	2	-2	16.1	14.3	1.81	16.2	13.9	2.35
Nate Wolters	16	14	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.01	-1	3	-4	12.6	15.8	-3.19	13.9	15.4	-1.58
Ryan Anderson	56	53	-0.73	1.23	-1.97	-0.15	-20	22	-42	15.9	14.4	1.55	13.7	17.1	-3.40

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patrick Patterson	51	52	0.29	-0.79	1.08	-0.09	13	-15	28	13.9	16.8	-2.93	14.7	15.9	-1.16
Tyler Hansbrough	24	26	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.07	3	-5	8	14.5	15.5	-1.00	15.0	15.4	-0.32
Lou Williams	42	43	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.06	0	-2	2	14.4	15.8	-1.40	14.8	15.7	-0.84
James Johnson	22	22	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.02	0	-2	2	15.1	15.2	-0.15	14.4	15.5	-1.13
Terrence Ross	20	19	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.08	-11	9	-20	17.7	14.5	3.17	15.0	15.3	-0.34
Greivis Vasquez	56	58	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.58	7	-9	16	14.0	16.9	-2.93	15.3	15.3	-0.04
Jonas Valanciunas	54	54	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.29	-4	2	-6	15.8	14.4	1.31	15.3	15.3	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	70	70	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.45	0	-2	2	15.3	14.9	0.44	15.7	14.2	1.46
Kyle Lowry	72	73	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.45	-2	0	-2	15.8	13.2	2.58	15.5	14.5	1.07
Amir Johnson	59	58	-1.05	0.55	-1.59	-0.58	-16	14	-30	16.2	13.6	2.55	15.8	14.4	1.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.39,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.29,0.35,0.62,0.7,0.6,0.68,0.78,0.92,0.85,0.83,0.73,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.71,0.43,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 113, LAL 110	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.25,0.34,0.31,0.44,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.29,0.28,0.24,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.7,0.68,0.8,0.81,0.92,0.97,0.91,0.75,0.72,0.43,0.58,0	89.6%
NOH 84, NJN 82	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.23,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.93,0.9,0.79,0.77,0.59,0	88.6%
ORL 100, WAS 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.72,0.81,0.9,0.85,0.83,0.92,0.92,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.54,0.55,0.58,0	88.4%