NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	105		Excitement	8.9 [151]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (CHI): +29.8%
Chicago Bulls	114		Comeback	7.3 [219]		LVP	James Harden (HOU): -29.5%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.17,0.17	-0.02	0.17	-0.03	20	52%	0.29	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.06	0.08	-0.00	3	114%	0.20	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
Donatas Motiejunas	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.02	14	57%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	-0.05	-0.00	12	58%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	58%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kostas Papanikolaou	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.06	0.01	13	44%	0.00	4	-0.15	1	0%	-0.01
Trevor Ariza	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	11	32%	-0.07	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	-0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.26,-0.26,-0.3	-0.05	-0.23	0.01	22	43%	-0.13	2	-0.16	3	100%	0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,0.04,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.07	0.23	0.00	17	54%	0.36	1	-0.06	7	86%	0.03
Pau Gasol	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.14	0.14	0.04	16	69%	0.31	2	-0.07	7	100%	0.10
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.05	0.01	6	77%	0.15	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.01	0.03	12	65%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	17	47%	0.04	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.06
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	6	56%	0.04	3	-0.12	4	75%	-0.01
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.04	-0.08	0.03	7	47%	-0.04	3	-0.12	3	67%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.3	23.5	15.3	25.4	2.5	33.5	125.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +1.3%

CHI +52.8%

HOU -2.7%

CHI +1.5%

HOU -3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	CHI	NBA	HOU	CHI	NBA
this game	15.2	14.3	15.1	108.2	116.3	104.2
season	14.3	15.5		105.6	105.4
opponent	15.2	14.9		102.5	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.2	13.8	15.9	17.0	15.2
CHI	17.1	13.8	15.4	11.4	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	36	35	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.15	-1	-8	7	15.2	15.2	-0.02	13.3	14.9	-1.68
Corey Brewer	40	39	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.21	-5	-4	-1	15.2	15.2	0.07	13.4	15.0	-1.58
Donatas Motiejunas	49	52	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.24	5	-14	19	15.6	14.8	0.74	15.8	12.6	3.22
Kostas Papanikolaou	18	16	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.04	-5	-4	-1	13.2	15.7	-2.44	13.7	14.5	-0.70
Dwight Howard	84	84	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.29	0	-9	9	15.2	15.4	-0.21	14.4	14.1	0.31
Trevor Ariza	67	70	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	-7	5	15.5	14.5	1.07	14.4	14.1	0.32
Josh Smith	55	54	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.02	-19	10	-29	15.3	15.0	0.32	12.8	16.2	-3.47
James Harden	75	77	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.32	-10	1	-11	15.1	15.7	-0.67	14.9	12.3	2.55
Patrick Beverley	61	63	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.39	-8	-1	-7	15.2	15.2	0.02	14.9	13.3	1.68

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joakim Noah	70	71	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.36	13	-4	17	14.0	15.1	-1.03	16.0	13.0	3.07
Derrick Rose	69	68	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.37	12	-3	15	14.1	14.9	-0.80	15.8	13.7	2.11
Nikola Mirotic	57	57	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.22	15	-6	21	13.4	15.7	-2.31	15.1	15.4	-0.33
Jimmy Butler	85	82	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.31	9	0	9	14.8	11.2	3.67	14.7	17.9	-3.23
Pau Gasol	69	68	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.28	2	7	-5	14.9	13.1	1.80	14.8	16.1	-1.33
Taj Gibson	57	55	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.17	3	6	-3	14.1	14.7	-0.68	14.6	16.0	-1.32
Kirk Hinrich	46	46	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.05	-3	12	-15	15.0	13.7	1.29	16.5	14.1	2.42
E'Twaun Moore	5	6	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.02	-6	15	-21	13.6	14.4	-0.78	11.8	15.4	-3.60
Aaron Brooks	32	32	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.16	0	9	-9	14.4	14.3	0.10	14.2	15.7	-1.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.48,0.59,0.44,0.6,0.52,0.26,0.3,0.38,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.37,0.67,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 92, DAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.58,0.54,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.3,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.29,0.13,0.14,0.37,0.68,0.85,1	92.0%
NOP 109, NYK 114	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.66,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.19,0.21,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.22,0.55,0.84,1	91.4%
NJN 84, CLE 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.39,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.37,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.52,0.43,0.47,0.23,0.22,0.35,0.27,0.25,0.55,0.78,0.91,1	91.0%