NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	105		Excitement	8.4 [194]		MVP	John Wall (WAS): +22.6%
Miami Heat	103		Comeback	3.3 [513]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -20.4%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Wall	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.19,0.23	0.07	0.16	0.00	10	67%	0.30	2	-0.08	10	80%	0.01
Nene	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.15	0.04	-0.00	10	74%	0.19	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.06
Otto Porter	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	0.00	3	117%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.04	0.01	13	50%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Seraphin	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	75%	0.07	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Garrett Temple	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	7	44%	0.00	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.06
Kris Humphries	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	7	29%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bradley Beal	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.13	-0.06	-0.04	0.03	15	42%	-0.07	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.32,0.32,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.10	0.08	-0.04	12	68%	0.23	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.04	0.00	5	100%	0.16	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.06	0.00	3	100%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Ennis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.02	3	78%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Shawne Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	6	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	8	44%	-0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.07	0.02	9	61%	0.00	4	-0.11	5	80%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.06,0,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.27,-0.2	-0.20	-0.04	-0.12	0.04	26	49%	0.09	5	-0.30	5	40%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.7	30.2	15.6	25.9	1.8	40.8	142.7
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -17.6%

WAS +11.1%

WAS +20.5%

WAS +28.3%

WAS +7.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	15.9	15.1	116.7	114.4	104.2
season	15.1	16.0		102.9	102.4
opponent	15.3	15.3		105.4	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	18.4	16.2	16.7	13.6	16.1
MIA	16.8	15.1	16.8	15.2	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	49	51	0.83	-0.33	1.15	0.27	19	-17	36	16.0	16.1	-0.03	15.2	17.0	-1.82
Rasual Butler	54	55	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.51	9	-7	16	14.9	17.7	-2.78	15.1	17.3	-2.19
John Wall	71	70	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.50	3	-1	4	15.9	16.6	-0.66	15.8	16.3	-0.52
Paul Pierce	61	58	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.49	-2	4	-6	16.0	16.3	-0.33	15.7	16.4	-0.67
Bradley Beal	66	64	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.44	-2	4	-6	15.8	16.8	-1.06	16.4	14.9	1.44
Otto Porter	24	26	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.00	4	-2	6	16.8	15.8	1.06	14.9	16.4	-1.44
Kevin Seraphin	18	20	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.10	6	-4	10	17.3	15.7	1.60	16.3	15.8	0.52
Garrett Temple	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	5	-8	0.0	16.2	-16.24	3.0	16.1	-13.09
Andre Miller	19	20	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.06	-1	3	-4	16.6	15.9	0.66	16.3	15.8	0.52
Marcin Gortat	39	37	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.08	-7	9	-16	16.0	16.1	-0.10	18.0	14.5	3.54
Drew Gooden	24	25	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.03	-4	6	-10	16.7	15.8	0.89	15.0	16.3	-1.31
Kris Humphries	24	23	-0.33	0.83	-1.15	0.03	-12	14	-26	18.0	15.3	2.65	18.2	15.2	3.05

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawne Williams	45	45	0.39	-0.89	1.28	-0.14	18	-20	38	16.0	15.9	0.02	16.4	15.7	0.78
Hassan Whiteside	29	30	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.01	5	-7	12	16.0	15.9	0.03	16.1	16.0	0.12
James Ennis	21	19	0.14	-0.64	0.77	0.05	3	-5	8	15.2	16.2	-0.92	16.3	16.0	0.33
Justin Hamilton	24	22	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.00	-8	6	-14	17.0	15.6	1.38	17.6	15.6	2.03
Dwyane Wade	68	71	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.49	8	-10	18	16.1	15.5	0.59	16.1	15.9	0.20
Udonis Haslem	31	30	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.12	-14	12	-26	15.7	16.1	-0.36	16.4	15.9	0.52
Chris Andersen	36	37	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.46	3	-5	8	15.7	16.1	-0.42	15.0	16.8	-1.84
Luol Deng	69	69	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.49	-2	0	-2	15.9	16.2	-0.38	16.0	16.4	-0.42
Norris Cole	56	56	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.38	-12	10	-22	16.2	15.5	0.67	16.8	14.9	1.93
Mario Chalmers	71	71	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.43	-11	9	-20	15.8	16.6	-0.80	15.1	19.5	-4.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.55,0.61,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.71,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.61,0.53,0.72,0.57,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 90, TOR 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.42,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.71,0.64,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.74,0.64,0.45,0.27,0	91.9%
LAL 95, POR 91	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.62,0.72,0.68,0.28,0	90.9%
TOR 108, ATL 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.59,0.49,0.41,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.65,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.69,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.43,0.09,0	90.8%