NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	94		Excitement	6.0 [610]		MVP	Steve Blake (POR): +12.6%
Boston Celtics	88		Comeback	3.0 [587]		LVP	Kelly Olynyk (BOS): -12.5%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Blake	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.07	0.00	8	69%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Kaman	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	13	53%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Wesley Matthews	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.05	0.00	7	71%	0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.00	11	55%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Freeland	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Allen Crabbe	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	21	41%	-0.01	1	-0.01	7	86%	0.02
Dorell Wright	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	6	64%	0.05	4	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01
Damian Lillard	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	0.01	-0.01	14	40%	0.05	5	-0.15	2	100%	0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	7	50%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Green	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05	0.05	0.04	-0.01	-0.02	16	51%	0.07	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	9	65%	0.08	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	9	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	5	18%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Jared Sullinger	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	0.02	22	43%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.04	0.02	18	36%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	1.8	28.0	14.8	22.7	1.7	26.5	117.9
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +49.7%

POR +5.5%

POR +14.2%

BOS -22.4%

POR +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	BOS	NBA	POR	BOS	NBA
this game	15.9	13.6	15.1	96.9	89.8	104.2
season	15.3	14.3		106.5	103.1
opponent	15.4	15.0		103.3	102.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.1	15.9	15.8	16.0	15.9
BOS	12.2	12.9	14.2	15.3	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damian Lillard	77	77	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.36	4	2	2	15.9	16.2	-0.32	13.8	12.9	0.95
Wesley Matthews	73	75	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.29	2	4	-2	15.8	16.4	-0.57	13.6	13.7	-0.07
Steve Blake	43	43	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.20	5	1	4	16.1	15.8	0.34	13.5	13.7	-0.16
Nicolas Batum	65	64	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.18	4	2	2	16.1	15.7	0.39	13.9	13.1	0.83
LaMarcus Aldridge	74	75	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.13	5	1	4	16.1	15.6	0.45	13.6	13.6	-0.01
Chris Kaman	36	38	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	2	2	15.8	16.0	-0.23	13.4	13.7	-0.34
Robin Lopez	63	62	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.20	2	4	-2	16.0	15.9	0.10	13.8	13.2	0.60
Joel Freeland	21	21	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.18	1	5	-4	15.7	16.0	-0.30	13.3	13.7	-0.34
Dorell Wright	13	13	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	4	-2	15.5	16.0	-0.56	12.2	13.8	-1.67
Allen Crabbe	20	22	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	5	-4	16.2	15.9	0.32	13.1	13.7	-0.60

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Wallace	26	25	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.13	1	-7	8	13.2	13.7	-0.56	16.6	15.7	0.93
Tyler Zeller	23	22	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.09	-1	-5	4	14.0	13.5	0.52	16.5	15.8	0.77
Brandon Bass	46	45	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.12	0	-6	6	13.8	13.4	0.46	16.3	15.6	0.68
Avery Bradley	67	69	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.27	5	-11	16	13.8	13.3	0.50	15.9	16.0	-0.07
Jared Sullinger	67	70	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.29	4	-10	14	13.8	13.1	0.69	16.0	15.8	0.24
Evan Turner	30	28	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.06	-4	-2	-2	13.5	13.6	-0.10	16.1	15.9	0.22
Rajon Rondo	70	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.21	-5	-1	-4	13.8	13.1	0.74	15.8	16.2	-0.39
Marcus Thornton	31	28	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	5	-16	13.3	13.8	-0.50	16.0	15.9	0.07
Jeff Green	70	70	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.26	-4	-2	-2	13.6	13.7	-0.11	15.7	16.5	-0.74
Kelly Olynyk	60	57	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.15	-15	9	-24	13.0	14.5	-1.51	15.4	16.8	-1.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.38,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 117, OKC 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.7,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.34,0.18,0.14,0.07,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.1%
SAS 107, DEN 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.6,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.65,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.29,0.12,0.08,0.15,0.06,0.07,0.01,0.01,0,0	93.6%
MIL 107, PHI 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.82,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.14,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0	93.1%