NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	110		Excitement	2.7 [1215]		MVP	Will Bynum (DET): +8.5%
Detroit Pistons	78		Comeback	1.1 [1028]		LVP	Josh Smith (DET): -12.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.00	-0.03	6	75%	0.08	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	6	72%	0.09	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	0.00	0.04	11	71%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.10	0.00	0.06	10	71%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
James Jones	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	8	56%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
LeBron James	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	0.01	0.05	13	61%	0.03	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Shane Battier	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Hamilton	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	2	50%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toney Douglas	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.03	7	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Norris Cole	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.02	9	52%	0.00	2	-0.03	5	60%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	5	75%	0.09	1	-0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	-0.04	7	57%	0.05	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.03	7	56%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Peyton Siva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	2	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Mitchell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gigi Datome	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	37%	-0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	0.03	7	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Singler	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	0.05	9	52%	-0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	-0.00
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	14	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	8	36%	-0.05	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	14	32%	-0.07	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	1.8	26.7	19.0	28.1	2.5	27.2	126.5
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +31.5%

MIA +4.5%

MIA +2.5%

MIA +9.1%

MIA +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	16.4	16.9	15.1	126.4	90.7	105.2
season	15.6	15.0		109.7	104.7
opponent	15.0	15.8		108.4	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.4	14.2	15.9	18.3	16.4
DET	16.1	16.4	19.4	16.0	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	55	54	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.42	32	0	32	15.3	18.2	-2.84	17.0	16.7	0.25
Chris Bosh	49	48	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.43	29	3	26	15.2	17.9	-2.62	17.0	16.7	0.30
Norris Cole	58	57	0.35	0.15	0.21	-0.12	16	16	0	16.1	17.0	-0.97	16.6	17.6	-1.02
Udonis Haslem	38	38	0.30	0.20	0.09	-0.38	23	9	14	16.1	16.6	-0.46	17.5	16.4	1.11
Shane Battier	45	44	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.04	10	22	-12	16.2	16.6	-0.49	16.2	17.6	-1.44
James Jones	48	48	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.46	24	8	16	16.2	16.6	-0.31	17.3	16.4	0.96
Chris Andersen	41	40	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.06	9	23	-14	16.2	16.6	-0.37	16.7	17.1	-0.34
Toney Douglas	53	53	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.34	16	16	0	17.5	14.7	2.81	17.5	16.0	1.52
Rashard Lewis	32	32	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.05	1	31	-30	18.7	15.1	3.63	17.0	16.8	0.20
Justin Hamilton	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	32	-32	18.6	16.2	2.46	14.9	17.1	-2.24
Michael Beasley	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	32	-32	18.6	16.2	2.46	14.9	17.1	-2.24

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Peyton Siva	8	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-32	32	14.9	17.1	-2.24	18.6	16.2	2.46
Tony Mitchell	8	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-32	32	14.9	17.1	-2.24	18.6	16.2	2.46
Gigi Datome	8	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-32	32	14.9	17.1	-2.24	18.6	16.2	2.46
Jonas Jerebko	41	41	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.08	-3	-29	26	17.3	16.5	0.83	17.6	15.3	2.26
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	33	34	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-29	26	16.6	17.1	-0.54	17.5	15.7	1.77
Will Bynum	26	26	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-29	26	17.8	16.5	1.24	17.7	15.8	1.86
Rodney Stuckey	40	39	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.13	-9	-23	14	17.3	16.6	0.73	17.5	15.5	2.03
Kyle Singler	47	49	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.30	-23	-9	-14	17.2	16.5	0.72	15.0	18.2	-3.23
Andre Drummond	65	63	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.38	-27	-5	-22	16.9	16.9	0.00	16.6	15.9	0.71
Brandon Jennings	52	53	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.41	-29	-3	-26	16.8	17.1	-0.30	15.4	17.9	-2.50
Greg Monroe	53	56	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.42	-31	-1	-30	17.0	16.8	0.14	15.1	18.7	-3.55
Josh Smith	49	50	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	0.41	-32	0	-32	16.7	17.1	-0.40	15.6	17.4	-1.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.29,0.39,0.27,0.2,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 120, OKC 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.23,0.23,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%
ATL 106, LAL 77	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.23,0.18,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
UTA 111, LAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.23,0.25,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%